Bad Beats and Murphy's Law

The same psychological motivations that cause people contains stories of bad beats also makes them believe in Murphy's Law and perform autossabotagem actions. Murphy's Law says: "If something can go wrong, will go wrong". Nonsense. If this were true, no one would ever do anything. Many things are done in a perfect manner, and countless others are made in a reasonably satisfactory manner.
So why do so many people believe in a law so obviously invalid? For the same reason why they believe suffer more bad beats than they deserve: they think they deserve more luck than they have. They essentially lament: "Why do so many bad things happen to me?"
You can answer them: "But you are not unlucky you are healthy and have a good job and a great family.".
They do not want to hear the fate of the whole world is a mix of good and bad. They resent because they can not find all that they deserve.

I thought about Murphy's Law a few time this evening while playing ! I was a few times in a situation were I hesitated a long time with JT preflop, and ended up not going for it, would have got some crazy good flops if I had called. If I had played them, I would have had two quads and two full house ...
But I'm pretty sure I made the correct move by not playing them in the position I was in, but still felt bad !

I noticed playing online tournaments this law comes into effect way more often then I've ever seen live. Beat by runner runner more times than I can count.

People take the luck for granted but are outraged when bad luck happens to them. I just play through it. I did get busted out of million dollar Sunday at near the bubble for 40+BB stacks with QQ vs JJ 49 to 1 demoralizing and depressing but its just how the poker universe works.

Poker is about putting yourself in situations where probability favors you. But luck is cruel. If you play well, by definition of being a good player luck will be against you because probability favors you, only luck turned that around.

And you also have no control over when bad luck happens. One ill-timed bad beat or two can be the difference between being a winner or a loser.

But if you are gonna play poker you just gotta accept that.

Well Murphy's "law" is not real law but a funny reading. People tend to remember much better the bad moments when they got beaten than the good ones when luck was on their side. This is not only in poker but life itself. Many people forget that they are healthy (believe me this is the most important - i speak from personal experience), they have good job and family. They take these for granted and are mad that they lost poker session or that their car is broken or whatever else. This is human nature unfortunately and trying to correct this way of thinking is the best thing that somebody can do. It will help in life also and not only in poker.

I'm pretty old...I knew Murphy. On a bad day, all that could go wrong, would. Let's turn it around.

Ever play a tournament where you can't lose? You're chip leader, you win when you shouldn't, you take down the tourny and kick Murphy's ass.


The law of momentum. luck tends to trend.