Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="ph_il, post: 6757083, member: 508"]
this is called variance in poker and its why a large sample size is important. you can be unlucky in the short term, but poker is a long term game.

take an actual coin and flip 10x in a row. then do that another 10 times for 100 total flips. it's 50/50, so it should be 5 heads / 5 tails every time you flip it 10x, right? well, it doesn't always happen and you might get 4/6 or 3/7, etc in favor of one side.

does that mean it's not 50/50? no it just means your sample size is too small. add the total results for each side for 100 flips and it might be closer to even. flip it another 1k, 10k times and it'll be even closer.

and that's how poker variance works. just because you lost kk 11x in a row doesn't mean anything because you're only looking at a small sample. what about the other hundreds or thousands of times you had kk before this as preflop favorite? what about the other hundreds or thousands of times you'll have kk after this, as a preflop favorite? what all the times you'll win as a preflop underdog? all these other kk hands factor in, not just the 11 times you lost in a row.

if you play mtts, you can expect more variance because of the structure of the game, the raising blinds, the fight for chip accumulation, and the fact that all players need be eliminated in order to win. so, if a big stack can accumulate more chips, knock a player out, and increase their chances of winning, with minimal risk to their stack, they have more incentive to call.
[/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us