General advice on lowering variance?

naruto_miu · May 14, 2013

I often have found myself wondering if there is ways to go about lowering ones variance...I know there are tips on lowering them, I also know there are certain games in which increase variance, so I wonder if there is anything to do that can lower it?

I know turbos have higher variance as apposed to slower blind levels
Same thing with hypers
Same with PLO
Same with the A.I pre-flop game plan

So I'm wondering what can we as players do to actually lower it, if that's possible? I can't see why it can't be possible, but if it can't be possible, than I'd like an reason as to the "why it isn't possible"

XXPXXP · May 14, 2013

yes, it can.

the high variance because that your game has less edge.

for example: [supposed there is an example, suppose, I mean]

if a coin flip , you have 55% of chance to win in long term.
then
you have 1/2*0.55-1/2*0.45=0.05 edge per game,
in order to win 1 buyin, you need to play 20 games.

_____________

but if same coin flip, you have 70% chance to win
then the edge u have
1/2*70%-1/2*30=20%

so you have 20% edge, here
in order to win 1 buy in, you JUST need to play average 5 games.

___________

when u have an edge of 20% , your variance is 4 times less than the situation ur edge is 5%.

the key point, I think, to lower variance is increasing ur edge - or increasing ur winning rate!

hope this works for u, GL, LOL

jasonv12 · May 16, 2013

Speaking in terms of Hold-Em, avoiding playing big pots and/or hands with bad reverse implied odds (A2-AQo, K8-KQ, J10-JQ, etc.) will help somewhat.

Hands like baby pairs to a set, suited connectors, suited aces (flush to the nuts) have great implied odds.

Play deep enough stacked and look to invest small amounts with hands like that.

Arjonius · May 23, 2013

The greater your skill advantage, the lower your variance will tend to be.

Playing a tight style tends to reduce variance.

Playing tournaments with slower structures tends to reduce variance, although it will never be low in MTTs, especially with large fields. This doesn't just refer to turbos vs reg. structures. The structures on different sites can be a fair bit slower or faster.

Fanch · May 23, 2013

The best games/formats I have found personally for lowering variance have been fixed limit Omaha Hi-Lo in the .50/1, 1/2 range, and Double or Nothing SnGs in the $5 and $10 limits. Best Wishes! ( Fixed Limit Hold em at 1/2 can be pretty stable as well as soft also)

vinylspiros · May 25, 2013

best way to decrease variance in my opinion are:
-dont call all ins pre with marginal hands.
-try trapping opponents instead of blowing up the pot with TPmediumK.
-avoid shoving or calling shoves on flop with draws.
-try to practice pot control(unless you have the stone cold nuts)
-play tight as hell.

This might sound boring to alot of people,but its better to move up slowly and carefully then to have a graph that looks like a bunjee jumpers cardiograph.

Daniel72 · May 25, 2013

- play satellites instead of top heavy tourneys
- play more regular mtts than turbos
- avoid super large fields
- when in doubt and short, fold into the money at the bubble
- play tons of games and variance/luck vanishes
- play 9-max instead of 6-max or 4-max tourneys
- capped or 180man tourneys are also a good choice

S3mper · May 25, 2013

One of the best ways is to find a backer and let him or her stake you for a certain ammount of time both parties can agree on example you find a backer and he agrees to stake you for the summer may-august where all of your winninga are split 50-50 or whatever he decides and if your running hot and you no longer which to be staked offer to buy out your stake there are also a bunch of other staking methods but if you do get staked unless you trust the person or if the person trust you I would recommend some type of paper work even if its just a few emails back and forth that you saved also if you do stake or get staked please make sure to make it very clear that it is a stake and not a loan!!!

NeverEnough · May 26, 2013

Daniel72 said:
- - play tons of games and variance/luck vanishes

It will never vanish completely in poker.

A2345Razz · May 26, 2013

If you find variance distasteful stay AWAY from PLO and Hypers...

I mean those are like the 2 most swingy forms of poker imagineable.

Variance is part of profitability and optimal play in most forms of poker.

Embrace it or realize you won't be going anywhere in the game.

baudib1 · May 27, 2013

The best thing to do to reduce variance is: Don't. Embrace higher variance.

Ultimately your edges are greater the more variance you can withstand.

Daniel72 · May 27, 2013

And of course swapping shares or beeing staked partially also loweres the variance.

fasteddee74 · May 27, 2013

Daniel72 said:
- play satellites instead of top heavy tourneys
- play more regular mtts than turbos
- avoid super large fields
- when in doubt and short, fold into the money at the bubble
- play tons of games and variance/luck vanishes
- play 9-max instead of 6-max or 4-max tourneys
- capped or 180man tourneys are also a good choice

I agree with Daniel, He would know having played over 20K Mtt's. I believe Volume is key, If you keep putting it in good or running really really deep. It will happen eventually. It is a numbers game in the long run.

vinylspiros · May 27, 2013

baudib1 said:
The best thing to do to reduce variance is: Don't. Embrace higher variance.

Ultimately your edges are greater the more variance you can withstand.

this is a great post. can you please explain this a bit further.

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General advice on lowering variance?

naruto_miu

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XXPXXP

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jasonv12

Enthusiast

Arjonius

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Fanch

Rock Star

vinylspiros

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Daniel72

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S3mper

Poker Not Checkers

NeverEnough

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A2345Razz

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baudib1

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Daniel72

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fasteddee74

Rock Star

vinylspiros

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