Generic Tournament Question

I would fold 100%. Can't see how anyone could spend $10k to flip a coin on the first hand of a tournament, which has little to no effect on your chances of making the final table. I believe I read something that said that in the wsop ME, not one player that was chip leader on day one ever made it to the final table.

Didn't read any responses but I'd call. Profiting in MTTs is all about being able to go deep occasionally because the payouts are so top heavy. And to go deep you have to get lucky, plain and simple. It isn't like you aren't going to be in plenty of flips for all or most of your stack in a large MTT anyways. Cautious players who aren't able to realise that you must get lucky to go deep simply aren't going to ever have a chance of going deep in a tournament like this. If winning 3 coin flips for your stack GREATLY increases the chance of you going deep, then 1/8 times you have a real chance of making some serious money, while somebody who isn't willing to risk it is probably never going to gain enough chips to go deep.

And richyl, doubling your stack basically doubles your chances of winning a tournament, so it significantly affects your chances of making a FT.

But i'd never be in this situation since **** tournaments.

feitr said:

And richyl, doubling your stack basically doubles your chances of winning a tournament, so it significantly affects your chances of making a FT.

But i'd never be in this situation since **** tournaments.

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Dont really know a whole lot about the maths of tourneys to be honest, if doubling up early will double your chance of final tabling, that would be a higher number than what I expected. I just cant see why you would take a coinflip for 1000bbs or what ever the starting stacks work out to be, unless you have no edge whatsoever, and will take even the slightest edge you can get in order to stand any chance at all.

I had voted to fold.
If I had seen his hand I still would have played it as if I hadn't seen it.
Reasoning: I paid $10k and will not go out in the first hand, but then again, if I had been following proper BRM, then I could afford the coinflip because $10k would only be a small % of my overall BR.
What I mean is, If I can afford to play in this tourney, then I can let the maths help me dictate my next move which would be to call.
Can I change my answer to call?

switch0723 said:

fold, no matter the tourny surely, even though i sucketh at tournies, it's survival > chip accumulation, taking a coin flip first hand is not survival, and your only going to double your stack which you can do later on by outplaying the tables and using bigger edges to your advantage

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vanquish said:

fold; all ur math doesn't take into account the fact that the ME has the most amazing structure ever and you can wait much longer for better spots

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lol vanq is sooo right.

Seriously.

Zach you dont take into account all the time you make mid cash range of like 90-120k when you fold which would be a fair chunk say 25% of the times you cash. EDIT: thinking about it its probably greater than 50% IMO

This exact senario was brought up in a cardplayer article a few years back. The consensus if your going for a final table/win, then to take all of these flips. I would like to think its an easy call for me, but the structure of the ME being so deep, i think that i would fold here, we have DAYS to wait for a better spot.

the math also doesnt take into account that the tourny is a once a year 7 day event, so you want to lower variance as much as possible in a 1 off game

The psycological element here is strong I think.

Question: Are you at the WSOP for the kudos, life experience and sheer thrill of being in the chase? Or are you out to just win some money?

If your sole aim is to make money I would think that getting a steady job would be a far better strategy, the money will roll in consistently every month, no gambles involved and u will progress slowly and steadily upwards if you do a good job.

I would expect that most people in the WSOP will be immensely pleased to be there, to be a part of it and to experience it to the full. You certainly want to recoup your 10K buy-in and anything above that is a nice bonus but honestly, you'd be happy to make back the buy-in and have lived through hours of great poker play, maybe met some big names along the way and be able to say "I was there" in years to come.

So frankly I don't think the stats matter here. What counts is being IN the match not being out of it. An ALL-IN call is the ONLY way you can leave the competition so it should be avoided unless absolutely necessary like in later stages where the blinds have risen and maybe your "M" value is getting low and you need to steal a few pots.

This is the first hand, the blinds are totally inconsequential. I don't care if the guy holds 72o or AA, if he wants to jeopardise his tourny that quickly give the fool his little blinds. He'll be out of the match soon enough with all-in calls and a few bad beats.

You miss the opportunity to make a quick double up of course but the plus side is you are most definitely in the match living the dream. You're aiming to work hard, grind away with good play, well timed raises, good folds and hopefully make a steady stack as you head towards the bubble.

Its a clear fold for me.

zach, i'm about to blow your mind.

there's something your math doesn't take into account. since it folded around to the blinds, there is a much greater than normal chance of there being more As and Ks left in the dealer's deck, since hands that people like to play or raise (especially live players ) is skewed towards those which contain either of these cards. factoring this in, you could easily have 0 edge at all here, if not be a slight underdog

oh and on the other side of things, there's time equity. if, upon busting, you can go play some cash games that you're very +EV in, then you should be much more likely to take an early flip from a purely financial perspective (henceforth known as the phil ivey theorem)

The PoolBoy said:

Turbo call ME fold... I'm not voting cuz bastard is not a choice!

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bastard is always a choice....


I fold.
I won't bust in a tourney in first hand after travelling around the world to take part.
If I had AA I'd call.

combuboom said:

zach, i'm about to blow your mind.

there's something your math doesn't take into account. since it folded around to the blinds, there is a much greater than normal chance of there being more As and Ks left in the dealer's deck, since hands that people like to play or raise (especially live players ) is skewed towards those which contain either of these cards. factoring this in, you could easily have 0 edge at all here, if not be a slight underdog

oh and on the other side of things, there's time equity. if, upon busting, you can go play some cash games that you're very +EV in, then you should be much more likely to take an early flip from a purely financial perspective (henceforth known as the phil ivey theorem)

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lol. Well I still claim that if you have the bankroll to play in a game (which the WSOP ME would not qualify) that it is +$ev to take a 50/50 flip for stacks first hand of the tourney. Think about rebuys, that's exactly what an insta-rebuy does. If you play in the WSOP ME and take an instant flip, you basically are paying $20k for a double starting stack 50% of the time (other 50% it's as if you're not playing it, no -ev there since we counted 20k instead of 10k).

I'm not sure about whether cashing affects it, but I think the $ev of most good players is more than doubled with a double starting stack. And even of the bad players, may as well take every flip you can since in the long run you're less than average to cash/win.

combuboom said:

zach, i'm about to blow your mind.

there's something your math doesn't take into account. since it folded around to the blinds, there is a much greater than normal chance of there being more As and Ks left in the dealer's deck, since hands that people like to play or raise (especially live players ) is skewed towards those which contain either of these cards. factoring this in, you could easily have 0 edge at all here, if not be a slight underdog

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Hmmm... are you sure about that? I would think there's just as likely that the those who folded threw A-rag and K-rag into the muck... From UTG, first hand, in a tourney like this, would you play A4os or K9 from UTG+1?

PokerPete said:

Hmmm... are you sure about that? I would think there's just as likely that the those who folded threw A-rag and K-rag into the muck... From UTG, first hand, in a tourney like this, would you play A4os or K3 from UTG+1?

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Well to be fair the question isn't "would you...", it's "would the average WSOP ME entrant...". I think there are a lot of people who would limp A4o from UTG. I've heard the fields are pretty damn soft for a 10k tourney.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/when-take-coin-flips-114476/

Posted this article a little while ago, goes along with what Zach is saying with simple graph..

I would say call and just suck it up, hoping to get deep into the tournament. All I know is that it would really suck and I couldn't imagine the feeling I would have if I saw an Ace or King hit the board...

At this stage surely its about Survival being greater than Chip accumulation?

In a Re-Buy or cash game - I'll call as you have the odds in your favour.

In the ME, you don't have the odds as you won't play this tournament 1000 times to come away better over the long run. This might be your one and only chance at it. You could fold every single SB and BB in the ME and make it to the second day and be nowhere near last place in chips. Surely, you will have the opportunity to pick up some pots here and there as well as getting the big hands.

It's an easy fold.. I'd show the whole table my cards, let them think I am weak as hell and when I re-raise them later on the will crap their pants!

At first I thought **** Tournaments but after reading a few post I have to fold also. Who doesn't want to play in the ME and who wants to go out on the first hand? Glad to see that so far most of the players here wouldn't want to gamble the first hand.

LOL @ open shoving all in first hand in the ME...call the guy an idiot and fold. nuff said

Definitely call. It doesn't make sense to give up an edge just because you think you'll get bigger edges later. Even if you do have bigger edges later, if you double up, you'll have bigger edges working on a larger number of chips OR you'll have big edges and not have your tournament at risk.

Example: You have 10K chips and you are faced with the QQ vs. AK scenario. You know for certain that 10 hands later, you will have an opportunity to get up to 20K in preflop as an 80% favorite (let's say your AA versus KK).

Expected Future Stack If Folding QQ = .8(20000) = 16000
Expected Future Stack If Calling QQ = .538 * .8(40000) = 17216

I would argue that tournament survival is not important at the beginning of a tournament. It's so far from the money, that it should play a lot like a cash game. I doubt there's a single one of you that would fold QQ in this spot in a cash game.

I'm considering this from the perspective of a pro who plays in the ME every year. If this is a big once-in-a-lifetime event, then I can see that it might be better to stay in the tournament and get your money's worth of the experience. From a pure dollar profit perspective, though, I think calling is the clear way to go.

P.S. - I checked the QQ vs. AK odds on Card Player, and it said it was 57% for the QQ. I used AK offsuit and I had the AK having none of the same suits as the QQ. Maybe that accounts for the difference.

Bigsmak said:

At this stage surely its about Survival being greater than Chip accumulation?

In a Re-Buy or cash game - I'll call as you have the odds in your favour.

In the ME, you don't have the odds as you won't play this tournament 1000 times to come away better over the long run. This might be your one and only chance at it. You could fold every single SB and BB in the ME and make it to the second day and be nowhere near last place in chips. Surely, you will have the opportunity to pick up some pots here and there as well as getting the big hands.

It's an easy fold.. I'd show the whole table my cards, let them think I am weak as hell and when I re-raise them later on the will crap their pants!

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See I don't subscribe to this strategy at all. The goal of a tournament is not to survive, it is to accumulate chips. You will have to double up several times just to make the money. Look at tournament structures and how top-heavy they are. You don't make money by cashing in tournaments, you make the money by hitting the big score. That doesn't happen by passing up small edges and valuing "survival".

On another note to other people who say they didn't come to the ME to bust out first hand, that's true but did you come to the ME to sit back and fold until you had to risk your 10 BBs with A5s? If you're talking about a money standpoint and maximizing chance of cashing you're probably right (and I've said I'd probably call, but obviously in the poll I picked **** tournaments ), but from simply a memory standpoint I'd much rather maximize my odds at a final table or win. After all that would be the big memory that would last a lifetime. Not to mention that in a tourney like this not only is the prize pool so top-heavy but the top gets even more money in terms of endorsements, so it's almost like there's more money at the FT/1st place.

combuboom said:

zach, i'm about to blow your mind.

there's something your math doesn't take into account.

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seen his A K first hand and had QQ i fold rite away, if i had A A i would call, buck
and if i have KK 1st. hand i fold too,after seeing his AK

I don't think you can look at it as because it is the ME and that nobody here is actually rolled to play in that big of a tournament, that you "shouldn't risk a flip". Now i have no idea what the structure of the ME is blinds wise, coz i've only watched a few episodes ever and never really follow it. So it is entirely possible that you will have better opportunities in the future to exploit your edge. But since this was titled "generic tournament question" i presume zach just used the ME as an example because ppl will take a decision more seriously when dealing with a $10 000 buy in in an prestigious tournament, rather than a $100 online buy in. You can still win good money in the eyes of ppl here by getting ITM at the ME because the buy in is so large, but when you start thinking in terms of winning $50 for playing 3 hrs in a $20 buy in, getting ITM doesn't seem so impressive. If guys can afford to spend $10k in the ME then winning $30k shouldn't be that big of a deal.

I really think the only point in playing MTTs is for the occasional chance to go deep and make alot. And in order to do that, you must run well. That means you absolutely must win your flips in key situations. If you play a style that is conducive to accumulating a huge stack when you run well then you have a chance to go deep. Sure lots of times you'll lose early, but profiting in MTTs isn't about winning 2x or 4x your buy in every few tournaments. Players who are going to play really weak tight and not be willing to take a chance, are never going to be able to fully exploit the very occasional situation where they run really well.

That isn't to say you should play spewy or stupid, but it is to say that you have to realise that there is a big luckbox element in MTTs and playing a style that will allow you to go extremely deep when you are that luckbox is never a bad thing (ie. Jamie Gold). And it also certainly isn't to say that you should be taking 45% "flips" to try and luck out and double up, but it is to say that if you are given a 55% edge then take it and if your hand doesn't hold then the tournament just wasn't to be.

But i'm approaching the question as if this just a regular tournament for which i was well rolled. Although a very good case could be made for folding this in the situation where you have a HUGE edge and are likely to encounter alot of better spots. Because, in such a situation, the degree of "luckboxness" required to go deep is substantially less so than in a tournament where your edge is alot smaller.

I call.


The hotels in Vegas are built on less than 3% +ev. Plus the cash games at the WSOP are lucrative enough, so if I bust I say good game, and add me to the 75-150 omaha 8 game please.

-Bill

Assuming I'm rolled for the tournament, and for the cash games that I'd go play instead if I busted, I subscribe to the Phil Ivey theorem and make the call. And besides, I'll have another shot at a million dollar payday in the WPT tournament in a few weeks.

If I'm not rolled though, say if I've won my seat in an online satellite or something, I hate to say it but I've probably gotta make the fold. I'm not gonna get another shot at a tournament like this any time soon and like others have said, the ME structure is such that I've got days to get my money in multiple times in better spots.

Obv snapcall with AA, and I probably couldn't bring myself to fold KK either.

Super easy. FOLD. At the beginning of a tourney you should not be risking your tourney life on a coin flip(Not that I haven't) . Read HOH. Unless your super-rich and don't care there is no reason to call, this is not a choice. FOLD.