H/U math

If I win 60% of the H/U matches I play, which will pay more? Playing 4 singles matches at $5.50 or playing 4 shoot out matches of 4 players at $5.50? I'm sure the math is simple if I were sober, but I'm not.

I/m not sober either, but if the only criteria is that you win 60% then it is the same diff, no?

cheers! :drunken_s:beer::beer:

Alon Ipser said:

If I win 60% of the H/U matches I play, which will pay more? Playing 4 singles matches at $5.50 or playing 4 shoot out matches of 4 players at $5.50? I'm sure the math is simple if I were sober, but I'm not.

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aliengenius said:

I/m not sober either, but if the only criteria is that you win 60% then it is the same diff, no?

cheers! :drunken_s:beer::beer:

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LOL! I guess alcohol DOES make strangers come out of the woodwork. Nice to see you guys again.

if your winning 60 percent of the time i say go for the big ones leave them measly 5.50s alone go for the 20 and up lol.

Yes go for the $5000 Heads up SNG's. At 60% win rate, I hear they can be profitable.

Alon Ipser said:

If I win 60% of the H/U matches I play, which will pay more? Playing 4 singles matches at $5.50 or playing 4 shoot out matches of 4 players at $5.50? I'm sure the math is simple if I were sober, but I'm not.

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You wanna play the shootouts because you're paying less rake

I don't like the answers here.

Assuming the play is the same in each variant, meaning u win 60% of your matches anywhere.

Works out something like 60% x 60% for the shootouts. That works out to 36% of the time you will win the shootout. So we then figure out your ROI in the non shoots vs your expected ROI (at 36%) in the shoots.

Single matches

At $5+.50 a single HU match nets you $4.50 60% of the time, and loses $5.50 40% of the time. Quick ugly math is 6 x $4.50 - 4 x $5.50 ($27 - $22) for a net of $5 per 10 matches.



Shootouts

Under the single winner scheme, you win $14.50 (not stars) 36% of the time, and lose $5.50 64% of the time. Same ugly math is 3.6 x 14.50 - 6.4 x 5.50 ($52.20 - $35.20) for a gain of $17 over 10 matches.

This surprises me so much I need someone to verify this.

At stars the 4 seat shootouts only pay 1 spot. They are also only $5.25 to play. Smaller fee than what you pay wherever you play.
At Tilt same thing but they cost $5.40 to win the $20 only prize.
So where you play these does have some effect on calculations. I used your example of (what I assume to be) $5 + .50 .

dj, I thought of the same thing when I read th OP but then I realized it doesn't work that way. Just cause he has a overall win rate of 60% dosen't mean that he'll win evenly-ie...60% first round, 60% second round. He could just as well win 100% of the first round games and then win only 20% of the second round games for a total of 60% of all games played but he would be a massive loser. Win distribution will be critical, just a small change in win distribution could mean the differnce between being a big winner or big loser and still be at 60% win rate for all hu played.

Of course, but all we have to go by is the 60% of matches won. So from that POV, which is again, all we have, I think the math (it is what he asked for) is good.

But if I'm wrong, and your math is different or you show mine is flawed, please rip me a new one.....K ?...thx

Thanks all. I agree with DJ and it looks pretty basic when sober. But now I am wondering about the stats from 1st round to 2nd round. The best player should be advancing the majority of the time making my winning percentage drop when playing shoot outs. Guess I'm going to have to input my stats into PT and find out. P.S. I pulled the 60% win rate out of the air just for an example

Alon Ipser said:

Thanks all. I agree with DJ and it looks pretty basic when sober. But now I am wondering about the stats from 1st round to 2nd round. The best player should be advancing the majority of the time making my winning percentage drop when playing shoot outs. Guess I'm going to have to input my stats into PT and find out. P.S. I pulled the 60% win rate out of the air just for an example

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Better player doesn't necessarily win by a great majority of the time (on other match)... another added benefit of the shootout is > by keeping the other table open you're getting reads on villain prior to HU match with them.
Difference in rake also makes the shootouts look more enticing to me... 9is only .25 ?).. < if yes,... not only are you paying less tourney fee for the game but 60% of the time you're getting a 2nd game with zero tourney fee (so wouldn't it then work out to something like paying .25 for 1.2 games?? < maybe not.. I NEED coffee)