Holdem Manager question - $ EV and EV $ Diff

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roundcat

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I understand what expected value (EV) is, but how is it calculated here, and what does it mean? Is Holdem Manager basing it on my hand values compared to known hand values of other players? Is it good or bad that my $ winnings are (slightly) positive overall, but the $EV is negative?

In the top section, in my second session on 11/11/08, my $ was $9.31 and my $EV was $9.31, so they were the same. Does that mean I won exactly as much as I should have won based on hand values? And for my first session on 11/09/08, my $ was $5.23 but my $EV was much higher, $12.36. What does that tell me, that I should have won more than I did? Similarly, what about sessions in which the $EV is a higher negative value, such as the second session on 11/18/08? I had a big losing session with $ at -$41.58, but the $EV is listed as -$73.35... is that telling me that, based on hand values, I should have lost more than I actually did? And what should I take away from that information? I got lucky or played well enough not to lose more?

In the bottom section, I understand that the equity % is my chance of winning the pot after getting all in. How is the -$41.29 EV $ Diff calculated, though? What exactly does that figure mean, other than that I should have lost money on that hand?

Please try to just ignore my abysmal $0.17 an hour overall win rate. 😉
 

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I dont believe the EV stat to be that accurate tbh.

Basically $EV calculates the share of the pot that you expect to win given average luck once you are allin before the river, and there can be no more future betting. For example if you get all your money in on the flop with KK vs someone who has a set against you, the pot is 100 dollars, your $EV would be +$10 if you lose and -$90 if you win. What it doesnt take in account is if you had half your stack in preflop, the EV would be the same so if you get the other half of your money in on the flop, which you should in most cases, and happen to suckout, its going to say your way above expectation.
 
It's basically saying that ignoring all other aspects of luck, if when all the money was in the pot you won exactly as much as you should have you would have won as much as the ev. It's one way of measuring luck. In that example you are having good luck in all-in ev. So when the money's all in you are getting lucky. This could mean you're sucking out or simply that your best hands are holding more often than they should (ie you're a 70-30 favorite in 10 hands and you win 9 of them when you should have only won 7).
 
So do the $ EV stats listed for every session refer only to all-in situations during that session, or all hands played?
 
roundcat said:
So do the $ EV stats listed for every session refer only to all-in situations during that session, or all hands played?
Click to expand...

If there are no allins, or only an allin on the river the $EV stats will just follow your winnings line. If you shove on the river for $10 with the best hand and someone calls, your $EV will be $10. Preflop allin $EV is probably the most useful. Go to the graph section and run edit filters.
Select "more filters" then add allin preflop=true. You can also add allin on (turn, flop) or earlier=true
 
This may help: http://www.holdemmanager.net/faq/afmmain.aspx?faqid=68
roundcat said:
So do the $ EV stats listed for every session refer only to all-in situations during that session, or all hands played?
Click to expand...
All hand played, in a way. If you are not all-in, you get a "0.00" EV$. So if you win a hand without being all-in and get zero EV, your winnings will increase but your total EV doesn't change. So I think it is tough to compare your winnings to your EV numbers. It seems more practical to compare your EV numbers to your All-in winnings by filtering or something, imo.
 
OK, thanks for all the information! I'm still not sure exactly how useful this stat is but at least understand it better.
 
roundcat said:
OK, thanks for all the information! I'm still not sure exactly how useful this stat is but at least understand it better.
Click to expand...

Supposedly, the $EV is a better predictor of your poker skills than the $$ itself, as it filters out part of the inherent luck of poker. It's important because when you win/lose money, you want to know if it's because you're on a heater/cooler or if somethings is right/wrong with the way you play, so you can fix it.

Problem is that all-in EV is only a small part of the luck involved in the game.
 
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