I have a question, pls answer?

S93 · Apr 7, 2009

Snowmobiler said:
You didnt answer the question presented!
Are you folding the poket aces pre flop with the example givin?

NO! He is saying he cant give a answer with out stacksizes!

Snowmobiler · Apr 7, 2009

sindri_93 said:
NO! He is saying he cant give a answer with out stacksizes!

Stack sizes are givin,2 big stacks with approx 1 m,rest of stacks 50,000

Snowmobiler · Apr 7, 2009

WVHillbilly said:
Ok, with the payout structure listed above, if the stacks are as follows:

UTG: 1,000,000
Everyone else but you 50,000
You 990,000

Blinds 25000/50000

Are you fistpumpers still calling?

Stack sizes matter!

Here is the question!

ElTrain · Apr 7, 2009

Call with a smile. If you can't get it in here then when can you get it in?

WVHillbilly · Apr 7, 2009

ElTrain said:
Call with a smile. If you can't get it in here then when can you get it in?

Usually sometime after you have top 3 $$ in your pocket.

Insaneasylm · Apr 7, 2009

regardless i think you call. if you win and most likely you will you have secured yourself at worst a 2nd place finish but more than likely you will get first.

ElTrain · Apr 7, 2009

WVHillbilly said:
Usually sometime after you have top 3 $$ in your pocket.

True, but I think folding here is playing a little scared. Chances are this guys is just trying to make a move anyway given his chip stack.

BelgoSuisse · Apr 7, 2009

Snowmobiler said:
You didnt answer the question presented!
Are you folding the poket aces pre flop with the example givin?

ok, since you are noobs and need to be spoonfed, here's the full answer. Please take notes as I won't repeat the explanation.

Using the stack sizes specified (1,000,000 / 990,000 and 7x50,000).

If we fold, we have 940,000 chips left, which the ICM calculator tells us is equivalent to a $EV of $433,768 (see table below).

If we call and lose, we have 0 chips left and we earn $1,000

If we call and win, we have 2,005,000 chips and our $EV is $640,682 (see the other table below)

If we assume that villain typically shoves with a pocket pair, we are 80% favorite when we call, so our $EV when calling is 0.2 * 1000 + 0.8 * 640682 = $512745, so we should call.

With these stack sizes, we have to call as soon as we are more than (433768+1000)/(640682-1000) = 68% favorite to win the hand.

/thread.

WVHillbilly · Apr 7, 2009

ElTrain said:
True, but I think folding here is playing a little scared. Chances are this guys is just trying to make a move anyway given his chip stack.

Point is it really doesn't matter what he's got. If he shoves all in and shows you 72os, I'm pretty sure it's still a fold because of the payout structure and the fact that every other stack at the table is going to be forced all in when the blinds hit them.

Snowmobiler · Apr 7, 2009

{Quote}ok since you are noobs and need to be spoonfed,please take notes I wont repeat the answer{quote}

The question was "your opinion" of this situation.
As a noob I wouldnt be so presumptious as to assume your answer!
After all that, we agree that it is proper to "call the all in"

BelgoSuisse · Apr 7, 2009

Snowmobiler said:
The question was "your opinion" of this situation.

Shoving or calling all-ins in late game is barely ever a question of "opinion". There's a mathematically correct decision and a mathematically incorrect one.

Snowmobiler · Apr 7, 2009

BelgoSuisse said:
Shoving or calling all-ins in late game is barely ever a question of "opinion". There's a mathematically correct decision and a mathematically incorrect one.

If there wasnt an "opinion" involved then all would have the same answer which didnt happen.Thank you for your time and detailed answer Belgo!

WVHillbilly · Apr 7, 2009

Thanks Belgo. Thought I had that one setup to be a no-brainer fold. Guess I was wrong.

Having said that, I still fold and here's why: Winning $1000 is going to make zero difference to my life. Winning $200,000 certainly will and I'm pretty sure I can fold my way (if the situation requires it) to 3rd and likely to 2nd. Even if I get to HU down 2:1 in chips, my expectation is roughly $430,000. The difference to me and my life between $1K and $200K is MUCH greater than the difference between $700K and $300K.

Plus since I suck at tourneys I'm like never going to have the chance for the big payday ever again!

Snowmobiler · Apr 7, 2009

WVHillbilly said:
Thanks Belgo. Thought I had that one setup to be a no-brainer fold. Guess I was wrong.

Having said that, I still fold and here's why: Winning $1000 is going to make zero difference to my life. Winning $200,000 certainly will and I'm pretty sure I can fold my way (if the situation requires it) to 3rd and likely to 2nd. Even if I get to HU down 2:1 in chips, my expectation is roughly $430,000. The difference to me and my life between $1K and $200K is MUCH greater than the difference between $700K and $300K.

Plus since I suck at tourneys I'm like never going to have the chance for the big payday ever again!

This seems like a valid reason to fold based on your life situation instead of mathmatical formula!

BelgoSuisse · Apr 7, 2009

WVHillbilly said:
Thanks Belgo. Thought I had that one setup to be a no-brainer fold. Guess I was wrong.

Having said that, I still fold and here's why: Winning $1000 is going to make zero difference to my life. Winning $200,000 certainly will and I'm pretty sure I can fold my way (if the situation requires it) to 3rd and likely to 2nd. Even if I get to HU down 2:1 in chips, my expectation is roughly $430,000. The difference to me and my life between $1K and $200K is MUCH greater than the difference between $700K and $300K.

Plus since I suck at tourneys I'm like never going to have the chance for the big payday ever again!

That's a valid point. $$ does have diminishing marginal utility . You could model that mathematically prior to big tournaments and see how it affects your ICM computations in terms of utility instead of $$, btw.

pokermatch · Apr 7, 2009

DEFINITLY CALL! Lisen, obviously each time you go up a spot, you get paid
a loott more. Now, this is your chance to double up. You will definitly lose
soon if you keep playing scared cause the blinds will eat you out. If you
double out now you have a bigger chance to win the big bucks!! Now
imagine you fold, well the guy wins the pot and you are still in a spot
where you cant do much damage. You would have done a lot of damage
though if you had called him. First, if you ahve more chips than him, you
would probably beat him badly. He might even have ace king!!! which is
like a perfect situation for you! he would have such small odds. One way
or another u are a huge favorite to win.

RichKo · Apr 8, 2009

Bernard Pugi said:
My question has a situation. I'm just curious about it so I want to ask you guys.

Situation:
All in all registered in this Tourney: 4000
Players Left: 9 (including you)

You are left in a table with 8 opponents to go. All in all, you are 9 in the Final Table.

I guess I'm the only one who interpreted this to saying we were the short stack in this example. SHOVE

Roller · Apr 8, 2009

Push it in .......

If you won't:
You are playing way to Conservative and tight at this point and you have no chance in taking the prize.

All in and if you get a Screaming Out Loud Insane Bad Beat then so be it.

Push it ALL in .....................

In my opinion.

Rafeeki1087 · Apr 8, 2009

yea deff all in.....If you lose, you then hate AA for ever, and you never call with it ever ever again...Even if its in a 1c/2c room...

luckytvguy · Apr 8, 2009

this seems to be a silly question.But I can understand.Sorry about you didnt mention the stack size of you and your opponents.It is also a factor of making decision.In most situation,you have to call.Because there is no better hand than AA.If you want win more money,you have to take that chance.And the only situation you dont call is that you think your stack size make you think you can only finish in 8 or 9.If you fold,then you have more chance to be 8 not 9.But still I think call will make more chance even to be better than 8.

hayes5150 · Apr 8, 2009

You got the odds.....everyone else folds? of course you make the call

StormRaven · Apr 8, 2009

Those who still think fold when you are an 80% favorite are playing scared imo. Isn't the point to win?

The difference between 9th & 1st is indeed life changing money. Don't you want a chance at it? How is folding and 80% favorite going to get you up to first??? Don't you think there are others who will continue to fold hands just to try and limp in to a higher payout spot? Why would you if you are an 80% favorite? Bad beats suck, they happen, but your chances of winning are 80%!!!

Being a "noob" or "fish" doesn't mean logic has to be thrown out the window! I don't need an ICM chart in this situation, stack sizes do not matter in this situation, the point of playing is to win, not limp into a higher payout.

Do you think a pro is going to fold here?

BDDP · Apr 8, 2009

I'm not sure which of the the next three things is worse...

1st: That people actually have to debate and go to statistic calculators regardless of stack size in the money with AA!!!

B: How many posts this redonkulous orginal post generated.

III. That I actually got hooked into reading all of them!!!

dj11 · Apr 8, 2009

There is no "It depends ' here.

As described its HU and you hold AA. It depends on whether you are a live breathing person. If you are, and you fold, you shouldn't be a live breathing person anymore!

Edit after reading the whole thread.

No change in my opinion!

If you get sucked out on, so be it. If you are in this big of a tourney, it has happened before, and while totally FUBAR, you will live. Even when you tweek the stack sizes around to a point where the ICM shows it to be incorrect (can that be done in a HU holding AA?) You have to call here.

If you fold HU with AA, fold your life please.

-Phil Ivey27 · Apr 8, 2009

KingCurtis said:
imo you are going for 1st.....make the call, then fistpump

btw that pay out structure is rediculous...atleast 9th and 8th

Hahaha, I absouletly agree. With both statements.

And you want to move up in money? But, want to fold AA for an all-in move? What better position to get a big stack and move up in money can you be in!

Also, take in mind he probably has one of the following hands,
KK, QQ, JJ, 10-10, and AK. You have all of these dominated.

And yes it does greatly depend on stack sizes here.

I have a question, pls answer?

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