Live Poker = Luck ?

Daniel72 · Oct 1, 2010

There is no long run. You can´t play enough live poker tournaments to get reliable results / ROI...
Live tourney poker = too slow (no sample size) = pure luck ?!
What´s your opinion ?

bigjoker66 · Oct 1, 2010

you convinced me .. it's pure luck!

OzExorcist · Oct 1, 2010

Um... no. There have been professional poker players for a lot longer than the internet has been around, and try telling someone like Doyle Brunson or Barry Greenstein that they're only rich because they're on a 40 year heater.

KoRnholio · Oct 1, 2010

Just because you might not be able to play enough live tournaments to zero in on your "actual" ROI, doesn't mean it's all luck or not profitable.

Finding your "actual" or "true" ROI or edge is futile anyways, even in online games with a huge sample size. Each game played isn't the same as the last one, many things change. Game to game, your opponents are different, the same opponents can behave differently, you won't be in the same state of mind or play exactly as well/poorly, etc.

Daniel72 · Oct 1, 2010

Thats a good point kornholio. I think shaundeeb said simliar things once in an older interview: your roi is a way too keep track of the past, it says nothing about the future, because the fields changes, the styles and so on...
But can you really play enough $10k tourneys to say: it´s all skill ?!

OzExorcist · Oct 1, 2010

Daniel72 said:
But can you really play enough $10k tourneys to say: it´s all skill ?!

Maybe, maybe not, but it was never "all skill" to start with anyway - especially when we're talking about something with super-high variance like MTTs. Luck will always play its part and so will skill.

hiyatran · Oct 1, 2010

OzExorcist said:
Maybe, maybe not, but it was never "all skill" to start with anyway - especially when we're talking about something with super-high variance like MTTs. Luck will always play its part and so will skill.

luck and skill will always go hand in hand cause if you're a great poker player but end up get dealt with a bad hand all night then it is not cause you suck but you just had a bad night.

PoKeRFoRNiA · Oct 2, 2010

OzExorcist said:
Um... no. There have been professional poker players for a lot longer than the internet has been around, and try telling someone like Doyle Brunson or Barry Greenstein that they're only rich because they're on a 40 year heater.

Don't forget Stu Ungar. He died before online poker ever existed.

IamRude · Oct 2, 2010

are you talking about cash or MTT?

Google "Phil Ivey The Corporation"

RamdeeBen · Oct 2, 2010

LoL.

I'd put money on live casinos having less luck than online poker that's for sure..

Some of the crazy stuff you get with online poker within the space of a few hands is crazy sometimes.

flint · Oct 2, 2010

Daniel72 said:
There is no long run. You can´t play enough live poker tournaments to get reliable results / ROI...
Live tourney poker = too slow (no sample size) = pure luck ?!
What´s your opinion ?

Live poker is certainly not luck. A lot of other things come into play like tells and being able to convince your opponent you are strong or weak when you are not. I think that my ROI in live tournaments is much higher than online and I am much more confident in my ability to beat them.

Daniel72 · Oct 2, 2010

You are right flint, but live you´re gettting such a small sample size. Because of that you never will know, if a tourney winner was only lucky or not. Online you have thousands of mtt´s and way more data. Live is slow and there´s no multitabling, no chance to fight against the variance. The live pros play only a handful of $10k tourneys, and the results can all be luck, do you know what i mean ?

dufferdevon · Oct 2, 2010

Who says the pro's only play $10k buy in touries ? There are many smaller buy in events. Why are there so many of the same names at the top of leaderboards, final tables ? There is no way they are just luckier than the rest of us.

onemorechance · Oct 2, 2010

worldclass said:
in my opinion online poker is pure luck..

Your opinion is wrong

eamesy4980 · Oct 9, 2010

Its a bit of both id say 50/50 Skill is obviously involved and only have to look at the likes of brunson to prove this. Getting people to lay down the best hands, knowing when people bluffing how play what hand in what situation the list goes on. BUT luck is also hugely involved when somones all in with qq someone calls with ace king suited. Now this is pure luck. 50 50 coin flip luck and you are going to have hundreds of these if played a lot of live tourneys. The winner of a live tourney will have had to win numerous 50/50s now thats luck. the amount of times people will have pp and someone have overcards and be all in. Thats coin flip and luck. Id say its 50/50.

eamesy4980 · Oct 9, 2010

Would you believe it. I just lost a hand i had trip jacks. flop come ace jack 5. He bets i call.. turn queen he bets i know hes got ace as he raised preflop so i went all in. He called turns over ace 10 and you guessed it hes got 4 outs on river.. and boom he hits the king. Think i change my mind its 100% luck lol

OzExorcist · Oct 10, 2010

eamesy4980 said:
Would you believe it. I just lost a hand i had trip jacks. flop come ace jack 5. He bets i call.. turn queen he bets i know hes got ace as he raised preflop so i went all in. He called turns over ace 10 and you guessed it hes got 4 outs on river.. and boom he hits the king. Think i change my mind its 100% luck lol

^ conclusive proof that everything is 100% luck and we should all give up now because we'll do nothing but lose to the rake IMO.

Sixes Full · Oct 10, 2010

Daniel72 said:
There is no long run. You can´t play enough live poker tournaments to get reliable results / ROI...
Live tourney poker = too slow (no sample size) = pure luck ?!
What´s your opinion ?

When i get back to germany, I'll look you up and we can play $100 HU tourneys until you figure that question out.

RamdeeBen · Oct 10, 2010

Of course if you played long enough (spanning years of results) you will come out on top. Just the same and besides before online poker was introduced Doyle Brunso, Daniel Negrenu, phil ivey etc all made their money at live casino games..The list goes on.

I dont suppose they was lucky donks who managed to yeild a hell of a lot more luck over time to move up into the biggest live games out there, do you?

Conclusion: There is to many successful live casino players out there who move up in stakes not just go in with 100K of all their money and put on one hand and get lucky but people who actually started of low and built up money to move up and up.

Elie_Yammine · Oct 10, 2010

poker is about skill and luck, but live poker has more skills involved since u can get reads and call an all-in with high ace sometimes whereas you would lay down a flush in other times...

cdidit622 · Oct 10, 2010

I hear a lot of people say " luck" in poker but then go back to talk about percentage of hitting flops and etc. I really think you can't believe in both . Me personally I may say doing a game, " man you got lucky" . But honestly luck only takes place in a number of hands ( manily when an opponent is all in) The reason I say this is because people judge poker " luck " by things like " Man you always get dealt a high pair", Man you hit the flop again" and much other situations. In reality how can any of those situations NOT be skills? They played the hand as you should play " high pairs" or " suited connectors". When in reality if they didnt use the skills to play the hand the way they did, another hand that was force to fold would have more then likely win. So yes there are plays where you may verbally express it was luck but in the long run poker ( cash games, tournaments and online ) starts with skills.

isohatedis · Oct 10, 2010

luck is involved in all poker,whether its good luck or bad luck,live poker or online

Live Poker = Luck ?

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