Luck

ferxo · Apr 27, 2026

I can say and comment that throughout this time that I have been playing poker, luck is a more than important factor regardless of probability, since sometimes having the best cards it is not always certain that you will win based on the analysis that has been deduced from it.

SergioV · Apr 27, 2026

ferxo said:
I can say and comment that throughout this time that I have been playing poker, luck is a more than important factor regardless of probability, since sometimes having the best cards it is not always certain that you will win based on the analysis that has been deduced from it.

I get what you mean - luck definitely plays a role in the short term. But do you think over the long run skill outweighs it, or do you feel luck is still the dominant factor?

R.Melnyk77 · Apr 27, 2026

ferxo said:
I can say and comment that throughout this time that I have been playing poker, luck is a more than important factor regardless of probability, since sometimes having the best cards it is not always certain that you will win based on the analysis that has been deduced from it.

Yes, it really is. Luck will always be crucial in online poker. But it must also be said that to some extent your luck will depend on you, on your perseverance, on your patience, discipline, skills and experience.

dannystanks · Apr 27, 2026

Be a good studied player and create your own luck. If you can win hands that don’t get shown-down, that don’t belong to you, is that luck or is it playing good poker?

Kirbs69 · Apr 27, 2026

dannystanks said:
Be a good studied player and create your own luck. If you can win hands that don’t get shown-down, that don’t belong to you, is that luck or is it playing good poker?

How often does that happen tho. And playing 4 hands in an hour? For 1 of those hands to only win... Is that really skills?

Kairozz · Apr 27, 2026

True, luck matters a lot in the short term.

Coolcassv9. · Apr 28, 2026

Personally, I've won tournaments with random hands more than with big hands. I believe results are long-term, and of course, you need talent and discipline to achieve good results.

austral · Apr 28, 2026

Luck can’t be controlled, but variance can be managed: Most poker players don’t try to get lucky; instead, they focus on minimizing mistakes and handling variance (inevitable ups and downs).

bermejoga · Apr 28, 2026

Yeah luck is always there, no doubt. You can do everything right and still lose the hand. That’s poker lol. Difference is long term, good decisions start to win more.

eberetta1 · Apr 28, 2026

Luck is important and is a big factor in poker. Reminds me how luck is also a big factor in backgammon. Losing in backgammon bacause the dice gives you even instead of odd numbers, or low numbers instead of high numbers reminds me so much of poker when the cards bring up hearts when you need diamonds, or the cards bring up spades when you just needed a club.

dannystanks · Apr 28, 2026

Kirbs69 said:
How often does that happen tho. And playing 4 hands in an hour?

How often can you win pots with no showdown? I’d say about 70% of the pots won in tournaments are won with no showdown. This is how you accumulate big chip stacks and play for the win vs getting blinded down. Make your own luck by being aggressive, betting vs checking, check-raising, 3 betting, 4 betting. Have fun and get in there and play!

ironduke11 · Apr 28, 2026

it really depends on how you play versus your cards or luck

phuchoidey1 · Apr 28, 2026

Sometimes I met newcomer they just hit 1 card in flop even that smallest card they call anything you bet and in river they hit another card 😡 that is luck

Kirbs69 · Apr 28, 2026

dannystanks said:
How often can you win pots with no showdown? I’d say about 70% of the pots won in tournaments are won with no showdown. This is how you accumulate big chip stacks and play for the win vs getting blinded down. Make your own luck by being aggressive, betting vs checking, check-raising, 3 betting, 4 betting. Have fun and get in there and play!

Well that's your problem right there. People don't play below there bankrolls like you do. So you can't expect people to play the same way as you. That's why I discouraged people from play poker for this exact same reason. They would be gambling rather than learning the game the way it was supposed to be played. Not just being aggressive just for the sake of being aggressive. Actually being calculated and worry about your stack. You guys are so big on why poker isn't gambling . But you just told people to start playing aggressively. That's literally what gambling is. Poker is gambling. It's not a sport. It's not chess. It's gambling.

About the 70% thing it could be true I just haven't focused on it. So my bias against playing small amounts of hands is probably there too. But when I did say played 4 hands in 1hr yes that's included with only winning 1.5bb against the blinds. So if there is a study. (There probably is) How many does someone win preflop and played hands that is more than the blinds maybe you got up to the flop and turn... I bet you it's a small number. Less than 70%

Actually where did you get the whole 70% thing... I literally just said played 4 hands in an hour. That's like around 100 hands played. How is that 70%?

dannystanks · Apr 28, 2026

Good luck to you friend. I never said poker isn’t gambling, I agree with you, it is gambling. It’s all a risk, and that’s what makes poker fun!

chicbulls2 · Apr 28, 2026

you have to have it

burro · Apr 28, 2026

If it were just luck, there wouldn't be people making money consistently in the long run, because luck is for everyone.
What still intrigues me is the importance of each element. How much of that is luck and how much is skill in the game?
In the short term, it seems that luck controls everything, but in the long term, the best players end up standing out.

Kirbs69 · Apr 28, 2026

dannystanks said:
Good luck to you friend. I never said poker isn’t gambling, I agree with you, it is gambling. It’s all a risk, and that’s what makes poker fun!

dannystanks said:
How often can you win pots with no showdown? I’d say about 70% of the pots won in tournaments are won with no showdown. This is how you accumulate big chip stacks and play for the win vs getting blinded down. Make your own luck by being aggressive, betting vs checking, check-raising, 3 betting, 4 betting. Have fun and get in there and play!

I wasn't saying you said that poker isn't gambling. I just said that because poker is gambling in the end of the day.

What I was going back at you was the 70% part. Where did you get 70% from 4 hands in 100hands...

Also playing aggressively. That's not skills either. Just because you take the initiative it doesn't mean it's skills. Unless you're actually bankrolled into your stakes. Then that's not a viable option to do. I bet you. If you weren't bankrolled into your games. You wouldn't be making them +ev moves. Because you know. You'd be rinsed. Instead you'd be playing poker like it was supposed to be. Which is to protect your stack. Obviously in a tournament setting you're incentivized to play aggressively. So there are things to account for. But what I said still stands.

Kirbs69 · Apr 28, 2026

burro said:
If it were just luck, there wouldn't be people making money consistently in the long run, because luck is for everyone.
What still intrigues me is the importance of each element. How much of that is luck and how much is skill in the game?
In the short term, it seems that luck controls everything, but in the long term, the best players end up standing out.

You forgot the key part tho. They're playing under their bankrolls.

GrannySmit77 · Apr 28, 2026

Studying poker is very important as that's the only way to understand what ranges of hands you should play from what position and how agressive you should play. Basically, the GTO theory. Apart from that there's the skill of reading poker players that you either have or not. That is something nobody can teach you. But let's say you master all of this- something you have no control over is luck. Most tournaments are won by winning your flips. AK versus JJ or some similar situation. So luck- at the right time is very important but luck itself is not enough.

YLAN · Apr 28, 2026

When exactly is this long term that hopefuls talk about? Perhaps 100 years or is it just an advise to the fish so they keep playing & loosing money? I have been playing long term & I only win tournaments when I get lucky. I can play my best damn technical game & then drown in the river against rags. Short term or long term, luck will not change through time. Perhaps just experience & perception would change. You will need luck in gambling so play your luck.

Another lucky day! Thanks Cardschat for the $25! Something from nothing is always fun!

888NOX888 · Apr 29, 2026

Perhaps luck is an important factor in any business.

cwdignus · Apr 29, 2026

I even mentioned the 2003 wsop when Chris Moneymaker won, which in my opinion was pure luck, in a recent post. Of course, luck helps those who know how to stay alive.

Peteski84 · Apr 30, 2026

Luck, give me more.

andron205 · May 1, 2026

skill together with luck is like zero and one

Luck

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