Luck better than skill?

Gorak · Oct 24, 2013

If I had to choose between being lucky ALL THE TIME and being skilled, I would choose being lucky (much easier).

But I don't think it is possible to get lucky all the time, so skill is what we can control.

99TERRANCE99 · Oct 24, 2013

good amount of both is excellent but id take more luck then skill if I could choose

babydrago9 · Oct 24, 2013

Many pros do commonly say I'd rather be lucky than skillful, but they aren't telling the truth. There's a reason that there are so many great pros, if skill was not the main factor, there'd be no pros; in any sport for that matter. When playing online on low stakes in a turbo tournament for example, its quite common a lucky player will do well most times. This is because luck is short term; if these players deposited for arguments sake $30, they won't be able to build up the bankroll to a large amount like a pro would do as luck don't last.
Luck=short term.
Skill=short term.
Therefore skill trumps luck and will make more money for a real player

ferdi332 · Oct 24, 2013

Wrong Decisions, bad turn

HooDooKoo said:
In any single MTT, I would agree that "luck" outweighs skill. In the long run, though, that is not true --- especially for a strong MTT player.

Regardless, I think that most of the support for skill over "luck" is from cash players. If we lose a hand due to randomness, we just re-buy and try again --- and if we keep getting it in good, then we will win in the long run (as long as poor bankroll management doesn't "ruin" first.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo

Agree with ou we just tend to make a bad call and gets out run by luck

LuckyBundy13 · Oct 24, 2013

Nobody is consistently lucky. You can say though somebody is consistently "skilled". Perfect example would be all the big names that have won...and keep winning. Hope that clears it up for you.

blueskies · Oct 24, 2013

I don't think anyone is consistently lucky or unlucky given a large enough sample. However, certain players can surely be "luckier" or "unluckier" than average.

For example, I just had this jerkoff call a threebet and then shove on a flush draw with 45 suited. So he gets it all in with 36% equity. He not hits one heart, but two. And I lose.

I may never come up in the same situation again and if the situation comes up again, there's no guarantee I won't lose my stack again.

It is much better to be lucky. Skill will only take you so far. It is often luck that determines whether you win a lot or win a little unless you're consistently matched up against bad players--especially when you take rake into account.

cpgd176 · Oct 24, 2013

I can see what everyone is saying about poker being a game of skill rather than luck. I completely agree. But being lucky can also mean your hands holding up, not just sucking out. When it boils right down to it, i would rather be lucky than skilled in poker. Get it in good or bad and bink! haha

Henry Minute · Oct 25, 2013

In their usual quixotic way the British courts have taken the position, contrary to most American decisions, that poker is a game of chance.
http://wickedchopspoker.com/poker-is-more-luck-than-skill-says-uk-court/

Somewhere out there is an article describing how the Appeal Judge played holdem as part of his decision making process but unfortunately I cannot find it.

As a Brit I have to abide by the idiot's ruling.

rock0001 · Oct 28, 2013

you cant win a single poker tournaments without luck, and you cant win a single poker tournament with only skill, so yeah luck is more important than skill in the short run, however luck doesnt last forever so, if you dont have skill, you will eventually end up losing.

Raving Lunatic · Oct 28, 2013

I do consider this game takes a lot of skill to know how to hide the hands you are holding and being able to read the other players. I also believe that there is a some luck you know like taking that chance when in the bottom of your gut you know you shouldn't but you have to try. I believe you need more skill then luck in the long road it will take you further and you will not have to feel your heart pounding as much. So in the end I would much rather relay on my skill as a player then random old dumb luck.

locha2013 · Oct 28, 2013

I think luck is a part of poker. In the first period of a tournement you have to win some all ins, but when you have enough chips you have to proove your skills and always watch the opponents carefully. I think in a heads up also luck wins against skills because i play often all in.

Bowman26 · Oct 28, 2013

If I got my chips in with the best hand and still lose I think of myself as unlucky more than the other person being lucky. Sure they got lucky to beat me on the river but I think it is more unlucky that my better cards at the time ended up losing anyway.

Luck always beats skill because no matter how skillful you are you can not predict the factor of luck into poker but it does exist as well all know. Skill should theoretically win out in the long run if the amount of skill required to win consistently is actually a larger % of the game than luck. No one is skilled at say roulette lol.

woodsy44 · Oct 29, 2013

Luck doesnt exist in my opinion. If you need the last 7 in the pack on the river, odds are 1 in 43. If you hit then you say your lucky even though the other 42 times you will lose. At the same time, statistics mean nothing to the individual. you could be in this situation 5 times and hit your seven every time. So in a way luck does exist?
Skill and discipline trumps luck so its better to be skilled than lucky. Eventually your luck runs out and then so do your chips

Enzo1089 · Oct 29, 2013

woodsy44 said:
Luck doesnt exist in my opinion. If you need the last 7 in the pack on the river, odds are 1 in 43. If you hit then you say your lucky even though the other 42 times you will lose. At the same time, statistics mean nothing to the individual. you could be in this situation 5 times and hit your seven every time. So in a way luck does exist?
Skill and discipline trumps luck so its better to be skilled than lucky. Eventually your luck runs out and then so do your chips

In some ways I completely agree with you, especially on the statement of skill trumping luck, at least to some extent.

To play devil's advocate here, the person who was always lucky...say the person who always hits his one-outers and stuff like that...then they would trump skill, but that doesn't happen in real life

On the whole statistic thing, you pretty much just described luck. Going back to the odds being 1 in 43...sure if you hit something that is a 1 in 43 chance, that's just being lucky. I feel that statistics in a way determines luck to some degree. So yes, luck does exist. It's just determined by bad odds in statistical terms.

Henry Minute · Oct 30, 2013

Enzo1089 said:
On the whole statistic thing, you pretty much just described luck. Going back to the odds being 1 in 43...sure if you hit something that is a 1 in 43 chance, that's just being lucky. I feel that statistics in a way determines luck to some degree. So yes, luck does exist. It's just determined by bad odds in statistical terms.

I would disagree with what you say, on the highlighted bit.

Statistics don't really determine anything, when applied properly. The statistics of poker indicate the probability of a certain thing happening. A particular card appearing, you getting dealt a pair etc.

If you hit your straight/flush/whatever more than the probabilities say you should over a long sample of hands then most people would call this lucky. Conversely if you miss more than the stats say then it is regarded as unlucky.

For example; I feel that I do not hit the flop as frequently as I should statistically (1 time in 3 on average) so a few nights ago I logged my results. In 54 hands I hit the flop once. That is definitely unlucky but 54 hands is such a tiny sample that no conclusions can be drawn from those results. I have no doubt that over thousands of hands my average would be pretty near the statistical figure.

As I have already said, if someone hits their draws/pairs more than the stats say they should, they are having good luck. There is no skill at all involved, other than the ability to spot when it is happening and try to capitalize on it.

I would estimate that 80% (ish) of poker is chance, the skill comes into play in extracting the maximum or losing the minimum, or near to it, from each situation.

zingbust · Oct 30, 2013

there's a lot to talk about when it comes to luck in poker, but there's no point at all talking about skill, at least when it comes to large field MTTs. That's because by the time variance evens itself out, the game has changed and what may have been skillful play back in the day has now become useless because most of your opponents already know about the concepts you're applying and they will kill you with a newer style.

Today most of the "skilled" players are min-raising preflop, at least during certain segments of the tournament....back in the day, min-raising was considered bad technique, after all, it let worse hands than yours in for a nice price and gave them an opportunity to outdraw you, pot odds. Yet, over time, players found a lot of good reason for min-raising anyway...so now it's the norm..so if you were a skilled player back in the day and your normal raise was 3xbb, then your play is outdated today.

Same thing applies today...if you're a min-raiser your days may be numbered...tomorrow the new norm might be all in preflop or something equally outrageous, old school min-raisers will call the new-schoolers donks, but over time, the new school of thought will catch on and start winning tourneys....

for a live tourney player, there aren't enough tourneys in a year that you can play in to really say anything at all about skill.

trekmaster · Oct 30, 2013

I think in poker we need a lot of both.In the over all scheme of things though skill will prevail over a long period of time.

fer · Oct 30, 2013

Skill>Luck

Luck evens out in the end, at least i think for me it has. I have been sucked out on plenty of times but I have sucked out myself. Its hard not to get aggravated when someone hits a two outer on the river but im sure we all have been on the winning side of that scenario. Its easier to remember the times weve been bad beat than it is the times weve sucked out

IntenseHeat · Nov 1, 2013

fer said:
Skill>Luck

Luck evens out in the end, at least i think for me it has. I have been sucked out on plenty of times but I have sucked out myself. Its hard not to get aggravated when someone hits a two outer on the river but im sure we all have been on the winning side of that scenario. Its easier to remember the times weve been bad beat than it is the times weve sucked out

Agreed. But you also have to consider that there are some players who frequently call off or ship their stacks on draws, players who insta-ship with top pair and a baby kicker. People who play like that often put themselves in positions where they have to get lucky to win. I'm sure those players believe that luck is as important as skill

Players that are constantly calculating odds, considering all the possibilities, and trying to put their opponents on a hand before making a decision are much more likely to be getting their chips in good. Of course they lose pots here and there. Sometimes run into better hands or even get outplayed from time to time. But more often than not, when they lose those big pots it's to a bad beat. They see luck as a bad thing because it always seems to be against them. It seems like they never hit their draws no matter how many outs they have. Of course this isn't actually true. Like you said we've all been on the winning side of it. The difference is that some players find that they are behind and in a position where they need to get lucky, while other players repeatedly put themselves in that position.

Kibic1302 · Nov 2, 2013

Without luck you can not win a MTT tournament. On the other hand, without the ability to not going to get too far, even with very lucky.

Luck 20% - 80% Skill

IvanShovski · Nov 3, 2013

Henry Minute said:
In their usual quixotic way the British courts have taken the position, contrary to most American decisions, that poker is a game of chance.
http://wickedchopspoker.com/poker-is-more-luck-than-skill-says-uk-court/

Somewhere out there is an article describing how the Appeal Judge played holdem as part of his decision making process but unfortunately I cannot find it.

As a Brit I have to abide by the idiot's ruling.

There is an upside to "the idiot's ruling" and that is that your poker winnings are far less likely to be taxed in the U.K. if poker is regarded as a game of chance.

IvanShovski · Nov 3, 2013

I'd be interested in hearing how people define the term "skill" as it relates to poker. How difficult is it to acquire this skill? I'm assuming it's not the same sort of skill required to perform brain surgery or to shoot 4 under par in golf.

So much of what happens in poker is beyond the control of players. They have no control of the cards that are dealt to each player or of the sequence of the cards as they fall on the board.

Very frequently one hears "skill" defined as getting one's money in good. But when a player is dealt KK and another player is dealt AA, is the player with KK really any less skilled than his opponent when the money goes in pre-flop? Or when a player who is dealt AA calls his opponent's shove on a flop of 644, is he really any less skilled than the opponent who was dealt A4?

cleiton1988 · Nov 4, 2013

skills are more important i think only 20 per cent luck can help you

ferdi332 · Nov 14, 2013

Keep It real

Beyond_Space said:
Hello all long time no come on here. Today Abdi and me have talk about luck vs skill.

I think luck is better than skill I tell him because, with luck you win more times than you lose. But he tell me skill is long run in this many hands or months or years and luck is this many times so luck loses to skill but that makes no sense because if I playing a game and I get good hands and lose to luck that means I lose that game, no? So why luck no beat skill, but skill beat luck? And I lose that game playing good hands against a lucky player, so how is that good for me?

My English (writing is not so good), but my speaking much easier for me and understanding.

He is rite If you are a lose player you probably play with luck , If you play premium hands and tide agresive . You wil make it most of the time . So play tite and keep it real .

jcdagenius · Nov 16, 2013

luck is in no way better than skill....

Luck better than skill?

Gorak

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99TERRANCE99

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babydrago9

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ferdi332

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LuckyBundy13

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blueskies

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cpgd176

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Henry Minute

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rock0001

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trekmaster

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fer

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