Matt Affleck

baudib1 · Oct 21, 2010

I think the issue is not whether or not we are too scared to play a flop with AA when we have position and villain's range is face up.

We have 2 options,and 5-betting, whether it's a small raise or a shove, pretty much puts our hand face up. Or we can flat and leave some amount of doubt in villain's mind and let him think his JJ+/AK is good.

The problem is we shove and we win the absolute minimum but we reduce our variance on the 18% chance that we lose out on making the November 9.

PlayerPlayerAA · Oct 21, 2010

baudib1 said:
Don't you think he should be as scared of what you're representing as vice versa?

wow weak-tightness ITT

Thats me !

traumatized poker player !
I just aint lettin him see a flop homes, I don't care who thinks who is representin' whatever. Thats a decent pot at this stage of the tourny, and I'll take it right now.
Oh and by the way, I didn't see it, but I assume he flat called and there was a flop, ouch. Another Matt meltdown.
AFLAC
AFLAC
AFLAC

baudib1 · Oct 21, 2010

PlayerPlayerAA said:
Another Matt meltdown.

totally wrong.

he played it beautifully and in 82% of alternate universes he is going to crush the final table with his massive chip stack.

onemorechance · Oct 22, 2010

PlayerPlayerAA said:
Another Matt meltdown.

So a meltdown is where you get it all in as a substantial favourite?

coolnout · Oct 22, 2010

Billy Kopp's was the soul crushing hand last year. This one is this years soul crushing hand. Gonna be brutal to watch.

brank · Oct 22, 2010

marginal said:
flatting makes sense if the person folds hands like JJ,AK, QQ to a shove but sticks money in on a low flop. If he calls with those hands, its a shove. if he folds his whole range, it is not a shove.

baudib1 said:
I think the issue is not whether or not we are too scared to play a flop with AA when we have position and villain's range is face up.

We have 2 options,and 5-betting, whether it's a small raise or a shove, pretty much puts our hand face up. Or we can flat and leave some amount of doubt in villain's mind and let him think his JJ+/AK is good.

The problem is we shove and we win the absolute minimum but we reduce our variance on the 18% chance that we lose out on making the November 9.

QFT

/thread

Aldito · Oct 22, 2010

He got his money in good on every street. Personally I would have shoved pre, but the other guy probably would have folded to a shove.

Pistol_Shot_Ian · Oct 22, 2010

At this level, late in the tourney, w/ November 9 in sight you should be playing some zen like poker anyway. Keep it cool, take those chips put them in the middle of the table and tell your opponent to flip them KK's or QQ's over and lets leave it to the board. As someone said earlier by this point in the betting you're eventually gonna have all your chips on the table anyway if you pursue them Aces w/ a call or 4bet. This may be your only opportunity to get him to fold up and leave a good amount of chips on the table, especially being a larger stack.

BTW Matt said in one of those little interviews they do early on in the tourney when he was at a featured table that he's not here to place he's here to win. If he put the guy on KK or QQ and is still playing w/ the attitude of winning the tourney I'd go for the kill shot right here w/ the possibility to snag up a "s***ton" of chips. If you shove and lose than what can ya do? But if you shove, get called, and win you're gonna put yourself in a beautiful postion late in a huge tourney to have a shot at winning the whole dam thing. I shove right here and I do it confident w/ an instantaneous reaction to the 3 bet. Especially if I have him pinned on pocket K's and Q's. Gotta have that killer instinct. Either way you're gonna have to deal w/ that big stack all day long, so get try to get rid of him when you have the best hand.

Pistol_Shot_Ian · Oct 22, 2010

Pistol_Shot_Ian said:
Either way you're gonna have to deal w/ that big stack all day long, so get try to get rid of him when you have the best hand.

I meant double up.... too much hippie lettuce today!

baudib1 · Oct 22, 2010

Yeah I think this thread is interesting to see people's responses.

The natural/standard play when you have Aces and you are 4-bet is to simply get it in. Villain has told you he likes his hand very much and wants to dance. But I feel in this situation, as I alluded to in the Johnny Chan KK-AA hand, that it is simply incorrect to get it in with that many chips and CL status on the line.

I do not think people this deep in the ME really have a 5-bet bluffing range.
5-Bet shoving with these deep stacks is like 5-bet shoving with on Day 1 of the ME with starting chip stacks. It puts your cards face up and you honestly cannot expect to be called by QQ-/AK. By flatting it leaves some doubt in the mind of villain and we know that while we can often put someone on KK+ by action preflop, when we flop a big overpair it becomes increasingly difficult to fold -- you peel the flop and then you're pot committed in a 4-bet pot and how are we folding overpairs on the turn?

That said I think Duhamel played it really poorly.

I think there is something to be said for the value of simply making the November 9 so I can see the desire to reduce variance. You get fame and fortune, a sponsorship, time to rest and prepare for your opponents.

postflopper · Oct 23, 2010

how bout c) fold? heh just kidding. auto ship it.

DetroitJimmy · Oct 23, 2010

I would have shoved. But the again I have never played a major tourney and my post flop play is.... Well lets just say it's not good yet.

I think the correct answer is do anything but fold. He didn't make it that far by not knowing what the hell he was doing.

Pokerdude420 · Oct 23, 2010

***Spoiler***

You will see tears after this hand ends.

PNJs_dad · Oct 25, 2010

I believe a big re-raise is appropriate. And with the 4 bet of 4 million you really can't raise with half your stack. So you almost have to push. BUT...I will say that I would rather raise to 12 million than flat. I never have luck with AA when I slow-play. As far as Affleck...I liked him from the coverage that I saw. EVERYONE has blew up and donked out of a tournament one time or another. His just happened to be the ME. He played well so kuddos to him.

onemorechance · Oct 26, 2010

PNJs_dad said:
EVERYONE has blew up and donked out of a tournament one time or another. His just happened to be the ME. He played well so kuddos to him.

HE DIDN'T BLOW UP

Rldetheflop · Nov 3, 2010

onemorechance said:
HE DIDN'T BLOW UP

I think he meant last year which certainly was a blow up. One mike the mouth would even be proud of.

coolnout · Nov 3, 2010

YouTube - Matt Affleck vs. Jonathan Duhamel

medeiros13 · Nov 3, 2010

I watched this last night...knew what was coming due to this thread and it was still gut wrenching to watch. Like someone said above, he got his money in good on every street but who cares...at that point, he's out to win 9 million, not prove he's a good player who makes good decisions.

He played the hand well enough as it played out but I think he should've shoved. Having said that, I don't think it's out of the question that Duhamel may put him on AK and called...not changing the result at all. I'd be really interested to see what each player has to say about the hand now that it's been televised.

onemorechance · Nov 3, 2010

brutal

salim271 · Nov 3, 2010

medeiros13 said:
I watched this last night...knew what was coming due to this thread and it was still gut wrenching to watch. Like someone said above, he got his money in good on every street but who cares...at that point, he's out to win 9 million, not prove he's a good player who makes good decisions.

He played the hand well enough as it played out but I think he should've shoved. Having said that, I don't think it's out of the question that Duhamel may put him on AK and called...not changing the result at all. I'd be really interested to see what each player has to say about the hand now that it's been televised.

Honestly I think Duhamel had been overtaken by 'bigstack madness' when he made that call, lucky for him his run good hadnt run out, so he caught a card to beat Affleck.

Affleck definitely didnt deserve to lose the hand, and I feel bad for him, but in the end thats poker for you. Great run, Matt Affleck.

doops · Nov 3, 2010

Affleck played the hand fine. Duhamel was in love with his hand and nothing was driving him off it, apparently. I'm relatively sure he'd have called an initial shove. And then the board kept giving him more outs. While I'd have folded to all the pressure Affleck was laying on, that's probably why I am not at too many final tables.

You don't see the other players but I can imagine how happy they were that the big stacks were having a go at each other. I bet they were nearly delirious behind their poker faces.

Terrible luck for Affleck.

You can second guess this all day. Affleck could have checked after Duhamel at any point and saved his tourney life. But he did what he could to get more value out of it. Can hardly blame him. It's one of those AA situations -- you are in great shape until you are dead.

It's a painful hand, though, only because of when it happened, with the final table so close. Otherwise, it's just another instance of AA getting crushed.

lcid86 · Nov 3, 2010

Saw it last night. He looked like a part of him died on that river. He made the right call, and lost millions.

manofthehour · Nov 3, 2010

I feel bad for te poor kid who played very well yet again in the main event. He went out terribly and I really was impressed with his performance. I hope he does well and takes this bad beat as a positive for his poker career to jump start him.

forsakenone · Nov 3, 2010

ship in the nickels so crap like that doesn't happen, play it the safe way, i believe the JJ would have folded.

onemorechance · Nov 3, 2010

forsakenone said:
ship in the nickels so crap like that doesn't happen, play it the safe way, i believe the JJ would have folded.

why do you want JJ to fold?

Matt Affleck

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