need a maths wizz- whats the probability

Pokertron3000 · May 8, 2008

Earlier I played a sitngo got dealt a JJ then QQ then AA whats the odds?

I got no value from any hand all folded pre-flop I figured someone would have called at least one. I bet 3 or 4xbb on all and I think was 15/30 blinds.

odinscott · May 8, 2008

The odds are 1 in 221 to get a pocket pair. It would be 4/52 x 3/51.
Now this is where it is tricky, and I am not really sure. It could be argued that the odds are still 1 in 221 since the hand before doesnt effect this hand.
Or it could be 10/221 to the 3rd or about 1 in 10,800.
I have these numbers written in my notes, so they may or may not be correct, honestly I cant remember, but something tells me that it doesnt change and the oods are 1 in 221 no matter how many times in a row it is.

Inscore77 · May 8, 2008

Wheres Zach when you need him lol

blankoblanco · May 8, 2008

depends if you're asking the odds of just getting 3 big pairs (defined as JJ+) in a row, or specifically the sequence that occured to you, or some other parameters. calculating the odds of getting exactly JJ, then QQ, then AA in a row would be incredibly arbitrary, so i'd recommend the first one

Spiral46and2 · May 8, 2008

I believe odinscott is correct. Same as getting red or black in roullete. The previous round has no effect on the next. But then again, I may be wrong also!

zachvac · May 8, 2008

combuboom said:
depends if you're asking the odds of just getting 3 big pairs (defined as JJ+) in a row, or specifically the sequence that occured to you, or some other parameters. calculating the odds of getting exactly JJ, then QQ, then AA in a row would be incredibly arbitrary, so i'd recommend the first one

^^^ this is right. You can't just say what are the odds of a certain event happening, because then you could end up saying that being dealt 72o, then 88, then J7s, then ATo would be almost impossible. You want to define what your terms are that you would be surprised, most likely we could use JJ+ here, so odds of getting 3 JJ+ hands in a row. THAT would be ((12/52)(3/51))^3 = 1 in 399,772.

zachvac · May 8, 2008

odinscott said:
The odds are 1 in 221 to get a pocket pair. It would be 4/52 x 3/51.
Now this is where it is tricky, and I am not really sure. It could be argued that the odds are still 1 in 221 since the hand before doesnt effect this hand.
Or it could be 10/221 to the 3rd or about 1 in 10,800.
I have these numbers written in my notes, so they may or may not be correct, honestly I cant remember, but something tells me that it doesnt change and the oods are 1 in 221 no matter how many times in a row it is.

Well the odds of getting a pocket pair after getting 2 is still the 1 in 221, but the odds of getting 3 in a row are not. Similar to a coin. If the coin's come up 5 heads in a row, it's still 50-50 to come up heads. But for a coin to be heads 6 times in a row is (1/2)^6 = 1 in 64.

Pokertron3000 · May 8, 2008

Yeah I really should put post like this for the attention of zach. So i suppose the questions a little redundant huh?

Although I think you would agree getting delt that sequence of cards right after each other is a bit mad.

Spiral46and2 · May 9, 2008

I have always thought the odds of getting a ny pair, are 1 in 17. Correct me if I am wrong.

odinscott · May 9, 2008

Spiral46and2 said:
I have always thought the odds of getting a ny pair, are 1 in 17. Correct me if I am wrong.

consider yourself corrected...

(pocket pairs we are talking about)

diamond_06_06 · May 9, 2008

Spiral46and2 said:
I have always thought the odds of getting a ny pair, are 1 in 17. Correct me if I am wrong.

Almost correct... The odds being dealt any pair in the hole in hold'em is 16 to 1 against. The question here however is asking the odds of being dealt any pocket pair JJ or higher, which is 54.3 to 1 against........ I think.

feitr · May 9, 2008

Yea the question is completely arbitrary depending on what you are asking. The odds of JJ+ 3 times in a row is actually ((16/52)*(3/51))^3 = 0.000593% (zach inadvertently calculated the odds of QQ+ not JJ+ because JJ+ is 16 cards not 12). The odds of getting exactly AA then QQ then JJ in that order is ((4/52)*(3/51))^3 or 0.00000926%. The odds of getting any pocket pair 3 times in a row is (3/51)^3 or 0.02% and the odds of any 3 way combination of AA/QQ/JJ in 3 hands is ((12/52)*(3/51))*((8/52)*(3/51))*((4/52)*(3/51)) or 0.0000559%.

@diamond...no the odds of getting dealt a pocket pair is exactly 1/17. The first card doesn't matter since it can be anything. For the second card you have 3 cards in the deck out of 51 to make a pocket pair. And 3/51 = 1/17. The odds of JJ+ in any given hand is ((16/52)*(3/51) = 1/55.2

Dwilius · May 9, 2008

questions like these often ignore the fact that its not a significant event until you hit second pair, you are going to be dealt pairs so 1ts 1/289 that you will follow a pr with 2 more but 1/4913 if you ask what are the odds of having 3 prs to start a tournament

Dwilius · May 9, 2008

odins 221 to 1 is the specific pocket pair if you really cared to have exactly jacks then queens then aces (because thats just stylish) thats how you'd work it out

WVHillbilly · May 9, 2008

16 to 1 against and 1 in 17 are the same thing.

Dwilius · May 9, 2008

5 to 1 1 in 5 no one here gets out alive
mojo didn't know his odds

vanquish · May 9, 2008

odinscott · May 9, 2008

D'wilius said:
5 to 1 1 in 5 no one here gets out alive
mojo didn't know his odds

you get yours
i ll get mine

Poker Orifice · May 11, 2008

Odds are not good..... cards are, lol.

need a maths wizz- whats the probability

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