Only fish use the word "Luck"

kostataa · Jul 25, 2016

If you think that you aren't lucky enough, then you are loser my frined.

bizarez · Jul 25, 2016

niphon56 said:
I play poker, not play mathematic.
Mathematic is result of long run, poker is result of this hand.
Without luck can not be long.

+1 :congrats:

thechamp5 · Jul 25, 2016

klickitat said:
Strong statement, maybe, but I believe it holds true and here is why.

First I come from Blackjack background and the lessons learned there directly apply to poker.

The first thing you need to realize is that you are playing the percentages and it is your job to make plays when those percentages are in your favor. If you make plays when they are not in your favor then it is called gambling.

The second thing you need to come to grips with is the fact you are not going to win every hand even when the odds are 99% in your favor. There is no luck involved, just a mathematical fact that you will loose 1% of the time over the long haul in those situations.

So starting with these two facts we approach the game knowing that we are not playing just one hand or even one game, but rather a period of time that includes many games with the bigger the sample the more likely variances are absorbed.

Catching cards or bad beats are only a product of the odds. If you play the odds over the long haul you will be successful. If is your job play those preferred times that increase your success.

Blackjack is but a simplified game of poker where you are not allowed to play against people, but the choice when to raise, call or fold are still the same. What holds true for both games is the fact that you need to be prepared to take advantage of the odds when they are in your favor. Gambling on long shots will more often than not drain your stack and leave you unable to maximize the value of a hand.

Remember that once the cards are shuffled the die is cast and there is no luck involved. There are only opportunities that pass by now and then. Be patient and wait for the best chance of success and remember that an 80% favor to win also means that 20% of the time you will loose. No luck, just math.

80% and 99% odds are quite favorable, and rare. In tournament games you have an element of time, that can force your hand which means you need luck. Also, might I remind you aren't playing a machine or the house in poker which is a large difference because people aren't always going to cooperate with your pretty calculations making your dream scenarios even rarer and your strong correlation between poker and blackjack quite a bit weaker.

Poker is quite clearly not simply math, otherwise the study of psychology wouldn't have found such a comfortable home in poker. There is something to be said about using your strategy to manage your bankroll properly but poker is not just math.

BadluckBubba · Jul 26, 2016

I am a fish I suppose because I fully believe in luck, both good and bad. If you get it in 70% + favorite 10 times in the same day from the turn or river yet to go, and you lose 9 times...........that doesnt make you a bad player does it? I mean isnt that exactly what you want to see happen? Nobody is happy to fold in those situations and see your opponent had a worse hand. That means you are un-lucky.

milencenov · Jul 26, 2016

Well, if we name luck "variance", we cannot turn a blind eye and say it does not exist.

Even if get into a situation faoring us at 80%, this does not mean we cannot lose.

Yes, we can play for "+EV in the long run", but if we lose all our chips in such a situation - we have no run at all...

Yes, next 4 times we could win... in other tournaments...

But we can never reproduce each situation exactly - we cannot reproduce 80/20 situation with the same stacks involved, in the same moment of the tournament, in a tournament with the same buyin.

So, we can still play for +EV, and yet we have no "insurance" that we will necessarily be profitable. Luck factor is there. Poker is not chess.

pescaofish · Jul 26, 2016

Variance

All arguments are solved with the word "Variance",although I can calculate the statistics involved, somehow the variance needs a large sample size and that is what we lack when playing Poker for a limited time period for instance in a Tournament.

DjKniteX · Jul 26, 2016

Luck happens all the time on the river. previous experience.

If I had all the luck in the world, maybe I would win every hand on the river haha

Diesss · Jul 26, 2016

I kinda agree with you, but I'd rather consider myself as a non-river fan. It seems that "miracle" hands don't go my way quite as often as they do against me. Let's say that for every miracle river I hit, 4 or 5 river cards will go against me (I'm talking about hands in similar situations).

thechamp5 · Jul 27, 2016

Where does luck begin? Luck begins once reality does. Yes it begins with the shuffle. Luck is when all statistics predictions and possibilities of reality get cemented into a real reality, that despite all the possibilities you landed a reality with a bit of favor to the possibilities your opponents also had. Statistics simplified should tell you that the point is not to get the best hand possible. That you should only need a better hand that beats every other hand at the table. Well if you are playing at a table of 9 players, do you push all-in once every 9th hand you're dealt? Of course not, because there are other factors than that simple statistic. Just like there are other factors than the 52 cards/outs and all the other statistics in poker. There are human errors, there are reads. Luck is just the description of needing all the elements to favor you over your opponent. I cannot think of a consistently successful poker player that ever made it to the top solely playing the odd of his cards.

Tosh_67 · Jul 27, 2016

Just depends how you define the term luck really... being favourite to win a hand when you are big percentage favourite to win then losing on the river can be considered 'bad luck' To me it's just another way of referring to low percentages...

otoniel · Jul 27, 2016

wrong

this game is half skill and half luck you just never know

SnakeEyeLiarDie · Jul 27, 2016

Poker for me is about finding the edge in probability. If I win a hand 51% of the time, I'm winning money in the long run. Luck is just a backdoor for someone who got it in bad. It's inappropriate to label the word "lucky" to someone who was a favorite to win in the first place, in my opinion.

Mihas1986 · Jul 29, 2016

short distance in a poker - luck, long - your skill

partyboy392 · Jul 29, 2016

No one will debate that there isn’t considerable luck involved in poker, especially in the short term. No one controls what cards will be dealt. No player can win every hand. No player is always dealt a good hand or knows when their good hand will face a better hand. All you can do is play the percentages. The skilled player attempts to take advantage of luck when it visits them and how to minimize the effects when it visits their opponents.

milencenov · Jul 29, 2016

Mihas1986 said:
short distance in a poker - luck, long - your skill

Try to hit a long run in a tournament, if bad luck eliminates you in the very start.

Try to make a long run with good bankroll, if bad luck kicks you out before the money in the first few tournaments and you lose your bankroll.

Even in the long run, you need at minimum to not be hit badly by "bad luck".

Even in the short run, you still have to count on your skill - enough bad luck is out there - you don't need to play carelessly and turn even good luck into bad one.

Edu4594 · Jul 30, 2016

I agree totally with you, is not the sort that makes you succeed, but yourself, with his determination and willpower.

Joe · Jul 30, 2016

Mathematics is an alternate reality

GeorgeF1234 · Jul 30, 2016

I think it depends on context and scale. On any single table there is a lot of luck. The fact that a complete novice can beat a pro purely because of luck (and he would have to be very lucky) just because of his cards and making stupid calls etc, is proof. I'm not saying this will happen at all frequently but we all know it is possible. Could this happen in a game of chess? No. There is no luck in chess. But put that same pro against the amateur 49 more times and it's highly probable that the score will be 1:49 to the pro. This is because of the normal distribution curve of standard deviation.

dbchristy · Jul 30, 2016

Gump877 said:
I think theres luck needed for short term success but longterm after the luck gets distributed equally it becomes skill.

well said

Americo · Aug 1, 2016

are letters to chance and luck is luck , to who gets to touch him and not wait

partyboy392 · Aug 2, 2016

Fish calls almost every draw in it's pursuit of "Luck". So don't try and bluff them. They’ll call you with anything and if you're bluffing their 'anything' could be a lot more than your 'nothing'. You might to have to wait until you hit a hand but remember the saying; good things come to those who wait. Make them pay when you've got a big hand. If you're sure you've got the winning hand you want to ruthlessly extract as many chips from them as possible. Don't scare them off with a big bet, but do put your money in if you think they'll call. Don't check to them and hope they bet into you.

wagon596 · Aug 2, 2016

To think that "luck" doesn't affect people's wins or losses is not reality. I once was in a tournament where after the flop my opponent had a less than 3% chance of winning the hand and hit his two inside cards to complete his straight. He hit, now is that skill or luck?

thechamp5 · Aug 3, 2016

My last spiel on this thread. You implication is that the better mathematicians should statistically win almost every time because they are the ones that should play the odds the best. Watch some poker after dark. Especially the one where Phil Hellmuth asks Mike the mouth to figure out the math for a hand. Phil is mathematically inept but he is not the best mathematician and he is arguably the best (with 14 wsop bracelets). How does statistics account for bluffs?

Samuel Lee · Aug 3, 2016

It depends on your vision about the world.
If you believe in luck then of course there's gonna be luck when you hit you full house with 72o against AA.
If you don't then it's just math.

Edson · Aug 3, 2016

In my opinion this is bad assumption... there is a lot situations in poker where luck plays a key role. But if you want to sustain your thesis, than I am a fish!

Only fish use the word "Luck"

kostataa

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