Pk pair VS 2Overs.

kidpoker410 · Aug 11, 2008

id like some feedback for these situations. usually i test my luck but im not very lucky. Which hand would u prefer and y.

#1) AK vs QQ

#2) 10J vs 88

#3) 10K vs 99

#4) JQ vs 1010

#5) KQ vs 77

usually if i feel someone is raising with 2 overs i gamble with the pp. and usually they raise and ill put them all in and they end up the winners. i realize all these are coinflips but maybe some feedback will help me discover what some of these monkeys are thinking.

(Times i lost big hands today ((and counting...)) AA-1, KK 3 times, QQ 1

jewboy07 · Aug 11, 2008

you have the same odds to win in each situation

but id rather have the pair every time

switch0723 · Aug 11, 2008

pairs every time since they are favourites in the hand, meaning in the long run you will make a profit from stacking the pairs but will make a loss from stacking with the 2 overs

bigjoker66 · Aug 11, 2008

kidpoker410 said:
#1) AK vs QQ

#2) 10J vs 88

#3) 10K vs 99

#4) JQ vs 1010

#5) KQ vs 77

Here are the actual numbers according to twodimes.net (I rounded them) these are numbers for suited overs and the pp are of different suits from the overcards. for unsuited subtract about 3% from the overcards

1. 46 - 54
2. 50 - 50
3. 47 - 53
4. 47 - 53
5. 49 - 51

So clearly #2 is the best over cards to have, mainly because you can make more straights with it. The problem with JT is you don't know if you cards are overs or not.

You want to be the aggressor in these situations so you have the fold equity. You do not want to be calling for a flip.

Check out Poker Odds Calculator (twodimes.net) for the JT vs 88 numbers.

luckyguy3 · Aug 12, 2008

whenever im facing a tough decision i go to my poker situation widget on my macbook pro. fast easy and very informative

since ive started using it ive seen myself go deeper in tournaments and overall better play. granted this tool will do you no good if you play live but it works very well for online poker. if you have a mac i would highly recommend downloading this widget

Ummagumma · Aug 12, 2008

The numbers don't lie...you should want the pair over the 2 overs everytime. Get a deck of cards and run those hands about 100 times each if you're not sure.

S93 · Aug 12, 2008

bigjoker66 said:
Here are the actual numbers according to twodimes.net (I rounded them) these are numbers for suited overs and the pp are of different suits from the overcards. for unsuited subtract about 3% from the overcards

1. 46 - 54
2. 50 - 50
3. 47 - 53
4. 47 - 53
5. 49 - 51

Heres they same number with a suited off suite mix

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.944% 43.73% 00.21% 71886264 349212.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 56.056% 55.84% 00.21% 91796496 349212.00 { QQ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.810% 47.59% 00.22% 78231216 359316.00 { JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 52.190% 51.97% 00.22% 85431336 359316.00 { 88 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.279% 45.08% 00.19% 74111112 319506.00 { KTs, KTo }
Hand 1: 54.721% 54.53% 00.19% 89631060 319506.00 { 99 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.931% 44.73% 00.20% 73531872 326970.00 { QJs, QJo }
Hand 1: 55.069% 54.87% 00.20% 90195372 326970.00 { TT }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.939% 46.72% 00.21% 76805748 352716.00 { KQs, KQo }
Hand 1: 53.061% 52.85% 00.21% 86870004 352716.00 { 77 }

Yeah like every one haves pointed out you whould be better off with the pocket pairs given all-in prf.
But how many times haves some one raised infront off you with say AJ u call with 55 the flop is 10-7-K u check and the vilian c-bets.

S93 · Aug 12, 2008

Here are a few intresting match ups

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.430% 52.41% 01.02% 21539196 418128.00 { 98s }
Hand 1: 46.570% 45.55% 01.02% 18719844 418128.00 { 22 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.574% 50.30% 00.27% 20671716 111756.00 { QJs }
Hand 1: 49.426% 49.15% 00.27% 20200068 111756.00 { 66 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.788% 32.69% 00.10% 688270644 2078456.00 { AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 34.021% 33.92% 00.10% 714229560 2078456.00 { KQs, KQo }Notice KQ beeing favorit over 88 and AJ
Hand 2: 33.191% 33.09% 00.10% 696742572 2078456.00 { 88 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.452% 59.21% 00.24% 259561304 1045604.00 { AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 40.548% 40.31% 00.24% 176697312 1045604.00 { KQs, KQo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.223% 53.01% 00.21% 87145032 343884.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 46.777% 46.57% 00.21% 76548384 343884.00 { KQs, KQo }

pimpinalovabkln · Aug 12, 2008

i just lost with pocket aces against 10 4 which is the stupidest thing i have ever experienced

cAPSLOCK · Aug 12, 2008

I wonder if I look at these wrong.

I mean... I am also gonna want the pair most times in a race. But these are all races. Damn close to coinflips.

I'm all for edges, and want to play and win... And this is why I'll bet my pairs and my big suited connectors... cause they like to win... But my game has too many big steaming leaks in it to be concerned with a razors edge for the most part.

Coinflips.

It also has to do with your reading skill.

I'll must spend some time musing on this.

kidpoker410 · Aug 12, 2008

2 times ive seen AA flop a set today and lost to runner runner broadways.

thanks for the chart sindri.

part 2 of this question...

say ure in one of the coinflip situations hu with say 99 vs someone u feel has aq/ak. do u think its more profitable with the PP and the better odds to raise heavily with the PP and get a call or a shove from the AQ/AK?

...and say ure reraised here but not willing to fully commit preflop, ure actions post flop are very limited right? any over card or suited flop and u can be bluffed off the hand after calling the RR preflop. and as far as profitability is concerened, preflop strength would give u more options to win this pot right?

jdeliverer · Aug 12, 2008

pimpinalovabkln said:
i just lost with pocket aces against 10 4 which is the stupidest thing i have ever experienced

1. That's not helpful to this thread.
2. That's not even the same situation that this thread is about.

Anyway, I think everything I was going to say was already said, suited connectors beat underpairs, but most times the pair is slightly ahead. Obviously in this exact situation I'd rather have the hand that was slightly ahead. Either way in a real situation I'd rather have AK than 55 even if 55 is ahead of AK. That's because many people will call raises with Ax, etc.

cAPSLOCK · Aug 12, 2008

That is a real good point with this topic. How well the hand has the potential to PLAY through the streets..

All the coinflip really is descriptive of is the situation where you're heads up against the 1 other player. Add another player, or add having to face a giant cbet on a T7Q flop with your pocket fives and it feels a little different.

cAPS

hornellfred · Aug 12, 2008

I look at this differently and would much rather have more outs even though its pretty much 50-50. For AK v QQ my brain tells me QQ but boy have I lost that match up a lot. The pairs are obviously the favorite, but the connectors have 6 outs for a higher pair and straight possibilities. Coinflips are coinflips and any edge is better than none, but prefer to be holding KQ over 77 when the cards are turned over. I was telling a friend about losing so much lately with QQ and told him it should even out. He reminded me that past occurences have nothing to do with the next occurence. The odds are the same everytime, they never change.

hockeyaddict · Aug 12, 2008

GIMMIE THE PAIRS and let the flop come low same for the turn and same for the river. But yah i would take the pairs and hope they don't out draw you or that u hit the tri]ps and they hit the 22 pair and u crush them.

S93 · Aug 12, 2008

kidpoker410 said:
say ure in one of the coinflip situations hu with say 99 vs someone u feel has aq/ak. do u think its more profitable with the PP and the better odds to raise heavily with the PP and get a call or a shove from the AQ/AK?

...and say ure reraised here but not willing to fully commit preflop, ure actions post flop are very limited right? any over card or suited flop and u can be bluffed off the hand after calling the RR preflop. and as far as profitability is concerened, preflop strength would give u more options to win this pot right?

I really dont like coinflips and try to avoid them exept in the late in a tornement when u have to take big chances because of the high blinds.
But same scenerio in a ring game and im willing to stack with a 50,1% advantage since u can just reload u dont have that option in a tournement(exept rebuys obvs.) and if u get in to just 2 coinflips as 55-45 fav most of the time u whount get past the second one.

I either play PP to set mine for cheap or late in the tourney i raise/push and isolate and take the damm coinflip.

bigjoker66 · Aug 12, 2008

hornellfred said:
I look at this differently and would much rather have more outs even though its pretty much 50-50. For AK v QQ my brain tells me QQ but boy have I lost that match up a lot. The pairs are obviously the favorite, but the connectors have 6 outs for a higher pair and straight possibilities. Coinflips are coinflips and any edge is better than none, but prefer to be holding KQ over 77 when the cards are turned over. I was telling a friend about losing so much lately with QQ and told him it should even out. He reminded me that past occurences have nothing to do with the next occurence. The odds are the same everytime, they never change.

I guess you guys are not getting the point I was trying to make. You need to be pushing with coin flip hands not calling.

Although stack size and blinds have a lot to do with it late in tournaments.

jdeliverer · Aug 12, 2008

I don't think anyone's disagreeing with your idea about aggression. In a coin flip, it's clearly better to be the one with fold equity. I still don't know if I would push in the situation anyway if I can just outplay them postflop. Most people will push allin preflop because they don't want to have to make decisions. If I'm good enough at making decisions, I might as well reduce my risk and hopefully increase my expected value.

PokerVector · Aug 13, 2008

The last few weeks I have been keeping track of my coin flip situations (among others) just for fun. Here are my numbers...

The last 9 times I help pocket pair during this situation I have won only 3 times. The last 5 times I have had the 2 overcards in this situation I have only won 1 time. Thats 4 wins and 10 losses in the last 15 times I found myself in a near coinflip situation.

...I know those are super super small numbers to even consider it a trend but I thought I would throw the numbers out there while on the subject.

jdeliverer · Aug 13, 2008

What tables do you play at? We can run more of these tests and see if your results are correct.

kidpoker410 · Aug 13, 2008

very interesting stats PV. i would be very interested to know how these stats play out. its kinda seeming like any coin flip situation is almost better off being avoided. so instead of these scenarios being a good way to gain chips more often then not you are going to loose them. i will def. be checking back often to see updates.

ty for the answers everyone.

Pk pair VS 2Overs.

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