Please explain to my friends...

dgellitson · Sep 15, 2019

why poker isn't just a game of luck!

I feel like I'm fighting a losing battle trying to explain why this isn't the case

M13A13 · Sep 15, 2019

Poker can be considered as a strategy and skill game as a game of chance. It is considered a game of chance because you could lose a winning hand on the river, in which case you were unlucky.

bellicoso · Sep 15, 2019

I'm still learning, but there's a lot of videos on youtube regarding the game of poker you could point your friends to. You're right that it's not just a game of luck, but chance or variance is a part of it.

From what I understand, the professionals have found a way to work with this variance so they're profitable over a long enough timeline. That timeline might vary from player to player but, again from what I understand, it's from playing millions of hands; countless hours...

In my limited experience, once you're able to quantify things (which many players have -- before us), the scope and impact of chance/variance starts to diminish. Not to mention, you can simply out-play an opponent and beat them.

In short, you're right. They're wrong. So keep playing and have fun!

MattRyder · Sep 15, 2019

dgellitson said:
why poker isn't just a game of luck!

I feel like I'm fighting a losing battle trying to explain why this isn't the case

Sorry, I can't. It is very much a game of luck. Even in serious games, skill and knowledge will only get you so far. It will give you a hypothetical advantage, but 10% rivers (for the other guy) often happen when the timing is the worst and 2% rivers always seem to magically pop up (for the other guy) when you're seven hours into a tournament, the stakes are really high, you've cased the table perfectly, you've done the math backwards and forwards, and the only thing that can change the inevitable outcome is pure, unadulterated bad luck when that one and only one spoiler card drops.

dgellitson · Sep 15, 2019

MattRyder said:
Sorry, I can't. It is very much a game of luck. Even in serious games, skill and knowledge will only get you so far. It will give you an advantage, but 10% rivers (for the other guy) happen when the timing is the worst and 2% rivers always seem to magically pop up (for the other guy) when you're seven hours into a tournament, the stakes are really high, you've cased the table perfectly, you've done the math backwards and forwards.

I've had this pointed out before and I cant say its wrong or right. But as @bellicoso kindly pointed out, when you factor in variance over a big enough hand count these can easily be overcome. .

Btw where did you finish in last weeks freeroll? you bust me in 30 something place if I recall correctly... folded round to you in sb, you had a9 or something like that and put me all in, I called with 8's and was gone

hopefully I'll fair better in this one

MattRyder · Sep 15, 2019

dgellitson said:
I've had this pointed out before and I cant say its wrong or right. But as @bellicoso kindly pointed out, when you factor in variance over a big enough hand count these can easily be overcame. .

I used to think that too. The question is - how long are you willing/able to wait? The odds are calculated over an infinite timeframe. If you begin playing professionally and well at age 18 and steadily improve till you are 98, you're probably on the right side of the curve. Notice I said probably, not definitely. I don't have that many years left.

Why do I play then you ask? Well, I don't have any illusions about making a living at poker, slots or the lotteries.

MattRyder · Sep 15, 2019

dgellitson said:
Btw where did you finish in last weeks freeroll? you bust me in 30 something place if I recall correctly... folded round to you in sb, you had a9 or something like that and put me all in, I called with 8's and was gone hopefully I'll fair better in this one

If you're talking about the $1,000 one, I finished first. I won three hands that I shouldn't have and that 'luck' is what propelled me to the FT.

wyoming4paul · Sep 15, 2019

I've found the easiest way to explain it is to beat them consistently. Eventually, they'll get it.

Sintubai · Sep 15, 2019

we have several situations where we really know we have the best hand .. some situations that fit a game strategy .. and luck comes to complete the hand. study a little about the sport and don't give up! Gl !!

TheDude6622 · Sep 15, 2019

It's kinda feeling out the situations, seeing repetitions, seeing player tendencies and playing to those, and then you have to react to what hits the board. Of course it's luck to hitting your hand, but it's how you react to try to extract the most value.

Kenzie 96 · Sep 15, 2019

Why the need to explain?

Newzooozooo · Sep 16, 2019

Hi.
There is no point in convincing others. The main thing you know is that it is true.
Good luck.

neptun1914 · Sep 16, 2019

Well it is difficult to convince somebody who do not understand and is not interested in poker that it is not just pure gambling. You can show the main difference - that you play against people and not versus casino. Main proof though is in the pudding as they say. If your friends and family see that you play responsibly without loosing too much time and money and even better - if you win some money and show them they will accept it even if they do not understand the game.

lontrus · Sep 16, 2019

I literally conclude an article that I just posted with that sentiment. It's discussed in section 4 and it might help you.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/lea...management-downswing-domination-guide-439934/

feisas7991 · Sep 16, 2019

it will be hard to explain but here we go.
1) there are 52 cards in the deck so the chance of the randomly picked card to show up is ~2%. So lets say you pick Ace of spades there is a chance that the following card will be ace of spades 1 out of 50 outcomes. aka 2%
2) bet to pot ratio can determine whether you have greater or equal chance of winning or breaking even on the hand, In example you are on the turn and have 10 outs (20% of hitting the winning hand) and the opponent min bets 100 into 2k pot you make immediate profit right there, not even considering the implied odds of getting more chips by the river.

You prob could come up with more math based explanations like gto, though it will be even harder to explain

Hope this helps and Good Luck!

charliej · Sep 16, 2019

Luck undoubtedly plays a role but IMO a lousy player even with some lucky hits will never beat a good player over the long run. They just make too many poor decisions.

charliej · Sep 16, 2019

You could draw some parallels to success at sports or even business. Sure there is luck involved here and there but ultimately the skill that comes from practice and hard work makes some individuals better than others.

Comboss599 · Sep 16, 2019

How it could be only a game of luck. It must me more complicated that's why it's so beatiful game.

dgellitson · Sep 16, 2019

It does seem that the general consensus is that there is a lot more to poker than just luck.

tmsr · Sep 16, 2019

the ability to bluff someone into laying down the better hand, to me, makes the game more than just luck.

not that I have that ability :laugh:

COMIRRR · Sep 16, 2019

Stop trying to explain to your friends that poker is not just a gamble because they cannot understand it unless they play this game to find out what kind of game it is!

sibird · Sep 16, 2019

dgellitson said:
why poker isn't just a game of luck!

I feel like I'm fighting a losing battle trying to explain why this isn't the case

Poker is not a game of luck.
Yesterday i won 888 poker CC freeroll. Twice before i was placed 3rd and 4th. Playing about 30 tournaments this year my results don't indicate that i am a good player. Does that mean that i was lucky on these three occasions? The answer is no. I was eliminated from other tournaments because i played wrong.
I think, poker is a game of mistakes. less mistakes you do, better will be your results.

Poker Orifice · Sep 16, 2019

sibird said:
Poker is not a game of luck.
Yesterday i won 888 poker CC freeroll. Twice before i was placed 3rd and 4th. Playing about 30 tournaments this year my results don't indicate that i am a good player. Does that mean that i was lucky on these three occasions? The answer is no. I was eliminated from other tournaments because i played wrong.
I think, poker is a game of mistakes. less mistakes you do, better will be your results.

Maybe you were eliminated from the other tournaments because you 'got it in good but just got unlucky'... or perhaps it was just a 'standard spot' where the correct play was to do what you did in those particular situations. Perhaps you were lucky on those three occasions... maybe just happened to be on the high side of variance

OP, I've had some family & friends who acted VERY interested, asking me LOTS of questions (to which I went into detailed explanations about the game, explaining ev, odds & probabilities, how skilled players have an edge, etc. etc. etc.... trying to keep it simple enough for them to 'get it'). I thought they did but then they asked me if I counted the cards

(as in blackjack... sigh)
One replied to me, "Yes I seem to be very lucky at the game too"

sigh

Transcendence · Sep 16, 2019

Poker is a game of accident! Poker is a game of skill and no luck! The fact that the ACE fell on the river is an accident, not luck.

tehb1987 · Sep 27, 2019

My friends asked similar questions. I always told them that poker is the same as chess. An incredibly large number of combinations that can and should be calculated

Please explain to my friends...

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