Pocket pair

It all depends on gut feeling and knowing the other players moves. chip stack and postion in the game. You don't always play the same.

It all depends on gut feeling and knowing the other players moves. chip stack and postion in the game. You don't always play the same.

Click to expand...

No, set-mining is all about pot odds + implied odds.

Thank y'all for the replies. What it comes down to for me is that I have to stop looking at game play as just this hand and look at the long term results. Which is hard to do, but I guess it's what may keep my BR from going down and start going up.

Adams and Schwartz actual ran the math in their recent bluff article (Nov., p. 106), and came up with 8.5% as being about the amount you should be willing to call to crack AA/an overpair.

Their article reminded me of this thread, so here are the percentages of your stack you should be willing to call off to crack AA, depending on your hand (note that this is where AA open shoves every flop, and these are the "win %" for the top hands that called):

66-99: 8.7%
JJ-KK: 8.6%
TT: 8.5%
22-55: 8.4%
87s, 76s, 65s: 4.1%
T9s: 4%
98s: 3.9%
97s, 86s, 64s: 3.7%
87o, 76o, 65o: 3.4%
J7s, JTo: 3%
Q9o, 43o: 2.7%
K5s, 72s: 2.1%
Aks, A5s: 1.9%
A8s, A7s: 1.6%
AKo, A5o: 1%
A8o, A7o: 0.7%

Conclusion: you really shouldn't try to crack them unless stacks are VERY deep.

In a recent interview Phil Laak gives 12:1 stack to bet ratio as what he is willing to call.