Which is the poker game with the highest variance out of these?

rickypr18 · Jun 4, 2014

NLHE, PLO, PLO8, Stud, and Stud Hi-Low

mapt02h · Jun 4, 2014

rickypr18 said:
NLHE, PLO, PLO8, Stud, and Stud Hi-Low

only know NLHE and PLO and from these two - PLO

dj11 · Jun 4, 2014

I picked HE, mainly because there are so many possible hands with the least amount of info.

Omaha has the equivalent of 6 HE hands for each player, and thus should be more of a knowable thing. You can usually assume (and correctly) that if you are nowhere near having the nuts, someone else will be. O8 also has the split the pot a lot thing, which should be anti variance over a long period. Most players don't react correctly for a split pot game, whether O8 or S8. Not sure you can call that variance. If you can call stupidity variance, then O8 would be my pick.

The Studs are also less variance because you get to see what much of you opponents are basing their game on.

vinylspiros · Jun 5, 2014

I've heard that its PLO but im not 100% sure.

Colbefc · Jun 5, 2014

Can't agree with dj that NL has the highest varience.
Having played NL for years and now only playing PLO it is PLO 100%. The varience is ridiculous.
After the flop in NL you have a good idea where you are but in PLO you never know where you stand until the river, the combinations are massive.
You can be massive favourite on the turn in PLO but 90% of the time the river changes everything.

vic75 · Jun 5, 2014

Colbefc said:
Can't agree with dj that NL has the highest varience.
Having played NL for years and now only playing PLO it is PLO 100%. The varience is ridiculous.
After the flop in NL you have a good idea where you are but in PLO you never know where you stand until the river, the combinations are massive.
You can be massive favourite on the turn in PLO but 90% of the time the river changes everything.

Agree totally that PLO has the highest variance was playing the Sunday weekly 2K free roll on Poker Stars flopped the nuts twice trips twice on two hands and lost both times someone chasing straight and hitting both times a lot of combinations with Pot Limit Omaha

dealio96 · Jun 5, 2014

I picked PLO8 bc I know for a fact plo is a much higher variance game than NLHE... throw in the low hands and you would think the variance goes up:stupido2:

nichka33 · Jun 5, 2014

In different forms of poker variance value is varied and apparently not strongly dependent on the player's skill.
For example, in Texas Hold'em, the most popular form of poker, the variance is quite high. When comparing the 1 on 1 [Ax Ax] against two random cards are 85% to win. At first glance it seems that a lot. But the fact that 15% of the comparisons [Ax Ax] will lose not always fully understood. In practice, several consecutive crossings may unbalance even the most experienced player.
Next, try to arrange on their experience of the game to low dispersion.

taban13 · Jun 5, 2014

I think the highest dispersion is naturally in PLO, too likely to confront powerful combinations with each other.

Staneff · Jun 5, 2014

It should be PLO. 4 cards give more possible combinations then 2 can do (HE).

XXPXXP · Jun 6, 2014

PLO did...because of 4 cards.
But if you did add an option here, I would vote on Limited Holdem...as well.

OzExorcist · Jun 6, 2014

Of the ones you've listed there, probably PLO.

But the correct answer, regardless of the variant being played, is tournament poker

jsh169 · Jun 6, 2014

dealio96 said:
I picked PLO8 bc I know for a fact plo is a much higher variance game than NLHE... throw in the low hands and you would think the variance goes up:stupido2:

Plo8 has lower variance then plo hi, you know where you stand, and it is easier to at least get something back. Your not in typical 60/40s for stacks. I don't know why I voted, when I don't know nearly enough about stud hi/low, but my guess would still be plo.

OzExorcist · Jun 6, 2014

Stud8 is almost always played as a limit game, and limit games tend to be lower variance compared to PL or NL games.

10058765 · Jun 6, 2014

dealio96 said:
I picked PLO8 bc I know for a fact plo is a much higher variance game than NLHE... throw in the low hands and you would think the variance goes up:stupido2:

I actually picked this one too but I think PLO and PLO8 are close.
I've chosen PLO8 because, at least at lower stakes, lot of players play trash chasing the low, increasing the chance good hands will be outdrawn.
However, if the good hand holds, in general the rewards are also bigger because of the chips of those chasers.

Colbefc · Jun 9, 2014

PLO has a lot more varience than PLO8 cos in PLO8 you have 2 chances to win or split and in PLO you only have one.

dj11 · Jun 9, 2014

Since IMHO, we should be able to narrow down villains hands much more easily in any form of Omaha, I still make my case that HE has more variance.

Example,

Flop is 345 suited;

In HE, we will seldom think many are playing 56x so we will discount that possibility. A2s is a real possibility, as would any suited match, So we might play our big PP differently, but probably not muck TT (no suit) instantly. Not to mention that in HE we were more likely to have raised pre with PP's and there will be few villains.

In O or O8, that is a scary flop no mater what we hold that does not have 2 of that suit. Add in the nature of all forms of Omaha , that there is likely to be more player seeing the flop, and if we don't hold 56ns at least, or 2 of the suit, we should be slowing way down, if not folding at the first chance. So our TTxx or even AAxx becomes a feeble hand to a pitiful flop.

And that information and knowledge (or lack of) would be at the core of my argument of HE being a game of MORE variance (luck) than all other forms.

Do we need a more precise definition of variance? I think yes.

pcgnome · Jun 13, 2014

I pick plo8 over HE, since it takes less skill to play the game. One day your on top of the world, and the next you can be card dead.
You have to play all of those A-2 & A-3 hands, but often you will be either counterfeited or quartered.
There are times when you think that you have thrown away a complete garbage hand, yet in the end it could have been the nuts if you had played it.
You look at the board, and see 3 of the same suit or a pair; you can expect to find out that whatever is possible is probable in PLO8.
Playing in position isn't as important in PLO8.
I have been in tourneys where there are lots of squeeze plays made by hold-em players w/o any clue. They play PLO games as if it is HE on steroids, since you start w/4 cards instead of 2. They build up huge stacks, and often get wiped out early because they are playing it all wrong.

BadB420 · Jun 14, 2014

I think plo is the highest variance game, your really just guessing at this point when there are 4 or 5 players in a hand! Good chance your top pair isnt going to take it down! Theres more chances to hit flushes,straits, sets and two pair so a lot of the time what looks like could be a winning hand is really drawing dead against the nuts!

HE obviously is a high variance game but you should almost always know when your beat as to where plo there can be several different people in the pot with you and your just clueless at that point, I think it takes a lot more strategy to play plo because there are greater chances that not only 1 but possibly 2 to 3 others have you beat already!~

suby_rafael · Jun 14, 2014

My Favorite game - Pot Limit Omaha

JusSumguy · Jun 14, 2014

buncha places said:
var·i·ance - noun

1. the state, quality, or fact of being variable, divergent, different, or anomalous.

2. an instance of varying; difference; discrepancy.

3. Also called mean square deviation. Statistics. the square of the standard deviation.

While variance is technically a statistical term to measure the spread of a sample from its expected value, the term is more broadly used in poker to mean fluctuations in luck and the corresponding effect on a player's bankroll. Even more generally, poker players often just refer to extreme good luck or bad luck as "variance."

As a measurement of the spread away from the expected (re: Standard Deviation), then the only answer can be Omaha

Omaha and O8 have two differing standard deviations, so they can't be compared evenly.

-

Cooking · Jun 14, 2014

PLO for sure. It's my favorite type of poker and when I play cash game, I practically only play PLO and the variance is huge.

dj11 · Jun 15, 2014

Who is buncha places?

While that seems a nice definition of variance, I am really not sure it applies, especially when describing Omaha.

Based on any specific hand, not necessarily on sessions, but sessions are made of hands so....

When we ask what is the mean winning hand in Omaha on a graph it will always be closer to the nuts in Omaha than any other game. So that standard deviation chart will look unbalanced. Rather than a nice bell shaped curve, it will look more like a teardrop lying on its side and cut in half. Same with the slightly different graph of the Average winning hand. If we play Omaha, we should know that. And if knowing something becomes the main tool against variance, then we should be able to minimize variance. We have 6 hands in Omaha, and if we can't make something pretty close to the nuts, then we are chasing, (which will happen in all forms of poker) and we should have a good knowledge/feel of expectations in poker (Omaha odds are not the same as Holdem odds) to chase.

So, again I mention, that there is so much available info in Omaha, compared to HE or any other variant, that we should be able to make easier good decisions in Omaha because we are loaded with that much more info. Omaha is a chasing game tho, and catching happens a lot more often than in HE.

So I maintain that HE has more variance because we are making decisions based on less info.

RacekK · Jun 15, 2014

omaha PL... those swings.. those fishes calls magic flops... that feel when 2 outers busts your combo draws;((

JusSumguy · Jun 15, 2014

Variance is a measurement of the spread away from the expected outcome.

HE has a very low variance compared to Omaha.

...and buncha places is my lazy friend.

-

Which is the poker game with the highest variance out of these?

Which of these poker games do you think has the highest variance?

Texas Hold 'Em

Pot Limit Omaha

Pot Limit Omaha 8 or Better

Stud

Stud 8 or Better

rickypr18

Rock Star

mapt02h

Visionary

dj11

Legend

vinylspiros

PIRANHA-------->< (((º>

Colbefc

Legend

vic75

Legend

dealio96

The LAG Monkeys

nichka33

Enthusiast

taban13

Visionary

Staneff

Rock Star

XXPXXP

Legend

OzExorcist

Broomcorn's uncle

jsh169

Visionary

OzExorcist

Broomcorn's uncle

10058765

Legend

Colbefc

Legend

dj11

Legend

pcgnome

Legend

BadB420

Rock Star

suby_rafael

Legend

JusSumguy

Chipmonger

Cooking

Legend

dj11

Legend

RacekK

Rising Star

JusSumguy

Chipmonger

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