Probability - which is easier?

what is more easy if we disregard skill, to win a tournament of 200 players that will be 0.5 percent chans or to win 4 sit and goes in a row with 12 players at eatch sit anf go ? How to think is it more easy to beat 47 other players or is it 12x12x12x12 =20736 to win this ?

What is the right calculation ?

thanks

Never liked the math,so you lost me fast in that calculation,lol

So the assumption is that all player are equal (with respect to skill).
To place first in the 200 man MTT is 1/200 = 0.005(probability) = 0.5%
To win at least one of four 12-man S&Gs is 1-(1-(1/12))^4 = 29.4%

[To win 1 12-man S&G = 1/12 = 0.833.. (this is the probability)
To NOT win = 1-0.833.. = 0.9166...
To NOT win 4 in a row = 0.9166..*0.9166..*0.9166*0.9166 = 0.706
So to win at least one is 1-0.706 = 0.294 (probability) = 29.4% ]

Remember that the prize money will be lower in the S&Gs so you'd want to include your likely return in your analysis to work out what's best.

You should find that both are losing propositions (if everyone is equally skilled) since rake makes it -EV.

Luckily, not everyone is equally skilled and if you hang around in cardschat your sure to get some help finding an edge in your preffered game.

Welcome to CC

Enolan yes for sake of just calculating. Me and my broter is of different opionon he say that it is more easy to win a torunament of 200 people then it is to win 4 sit and goes of 12 people per sit an go i say it is more simple to eleminate 47 players then to eliminate 199. He say that it is harder to do that because it is 4 different games of 12 players so he say the likelyhood will be calculated like 12x12x12x12=. Therefor i wanted to think of this and leave the skills out.

regards

If you are playing with similar players, it's right to count thus:
in tournament with 200 pls you have 1/200 (or 0.5%) probability of win,
in 2 sngs with 12 in every you have 1/144 (0.7%),
in 3 sngs - 1/1728 (0.06%),
in 4 sngs - 1/(12*12*12*12) = 1/20736 (0.005%).
It's like that easier to win in tournament with 3 players (including you) than 2 heads-ups with 2 others. 1/3 in first case and 0.5*0.5=1/4 in second.

21sam said:

If you are playing with similar players, it's right to count thus:
in tournament with 200 pls you have 1/200 (or 0.5%) probability of win,
in 2 sngs with 12 in every you have 1/144 (0.7%),
in 3 sngs - 1/1728 (0.06%),
in 4 sngs - 1/(12*12*12*12) = 1/20736 (0.005%).
It's like that easier to win in tournament with 3 players (including you) than 2 heads-ups with 2 others. 1/3 in first case and 0.5*0.5=1/4 in second.

Click to expand...

Ok thanks Enolan and 21sam for your answear am new here so i cant respond in pm. So far i have had 2 winnings when i played 7 of this now i shall try to go for 3 in a row and finaly 4 hard yes but fun and verry often i get atleast in the money.

Best regards

I can not understand the odds in mathematics , although serious view the same as is natural at times, the odds help see if we can continue to pay because if we had the serious nuts question in my mind trying to get the maximum possible to the play.

Which players? :dito: