Probability question

I have been fortunate enough to run into smaller PPs 4x when I've had KK and had the coins go all in preflop. I've lost 3 of the 4.

I would like to find out the odds of that happening. I think I need to use binomial distribution.

Assuming that I was 80:20 going in, what is the formula to calculate the probability of winning all 4, winning 3, splitting, winning 1, and winning none?

Any stat pros here? Thanks.

Calculating the probability of these events is pretty meaningless unless you are planning to compare these 4 instances against every other set of 4 instances in your entire database. Selectively choosing these 4 hands because they stand out to you and then retrospectively calculating the odds is just nonsense.

The point is I would like to know the formula for calculating the probability of outcome distribution.

I could have said what are the chances that I complete my flush draw 4 times in 5 chances. It’s the same point. Those example I cited just happen to be recent hands that happened to me so I used it as an example.

Yeah, its binomial distribution.

The calculations r pretty straight forward.
loose 4 win 0: 0.2^4
loose 3 win 1: 0.2^3*0.8*(4choose1)
loose 2 win 2: 0,2^2*0,8^2*(4choose2)
and so on.

But you are probably guilty of data snooping.
And in that case you will always find 4 suckouts in a row provided you go through a big enough sample.

only_bridge said:

Yeah, its binomial distribution.

The calculations r pretty straight forward.
loose 4 win 0: 0.2^4
loose 3 win 1: 0.2^3*0.8*(4choose1)
loose 2 win 2: 0,2^2*0,8^2*(4choose2)
and so on.

But you are probably guilty of data snooping.
And in that case you will always find 4 suckouts in a row provided you go through a big enough sample.

Click to expand...

This is what I was looking for. Thanks