Rigged: The AA test

jstnorv07 · Feb 8, 2008

pantin007 said:
but how is it useless?
this shows that the RNG is correctly dealing out the hands as often as they should be dealt out, well AA is

Easy, you could run the software with the parameters that all hands should be evenly distributed, however, you could pit Player A against player B and write the program that Player A will beat Player B regardless of the hands they start with. I'm sure it would be very simple for software to do something like that and surely there could be other more complicated methods of making sure they get the most money out of the most people. Maybe first time depositers and frequent depositers are given 4-5%(or whatever) tweeks to their advantage. Just enough to fly under most people's radar. Before I get attacked on this, this is conjecture on my part but if I could come up with that off the top of my head imagine what a group of people whose job it is to increase profits could come up with discussing this every day for however many years pstars etc. have been around.

jstnorv07 · Feb 8, 2008

Four Dogs said:
Yes I take insults personally. Useless I can handle. Please explain why though.

I was not directing any insults at you. If I was I would have said Four Dogs,,,blah blah blah(insert insult). I should have been using this quote thing before so that I could direct my comments more succintly at the people I am talking to. I have been reading here for a while but just started posting because I like this thread. My first few posts were mainly a jumbled together response of everything that I had read over a long time from many different threads prior to posting. The tyrant thing is the only one that was specifically meant for you.

BallsASteel · Feb 8, 2008

OK, here's my synopsis of the recent discord brought up. The postulation is that there are numerous potential ways online poker could be rigged out there. For our study here we are looking at whether or not sites are "juicing" the play by matching monster hands against each other thus increasing the rake and their profit. Now, to do this, we assume that A-A would show more frequently in the pocket than the statistical probability would indicate as as a measure that this indeed happening.

Now, this has brought up an excellent discussion and some great analysis. Of course, we can all dissect the null hypothesis and find flaws as to whether it would lead us to any conclusive results as to:

Is there rigging of the deal?
Is there true randomness in the dealing?
Is there cheating by players?
Is there cheating by the site?
Is there juicing by any means?

Now, as with any study, medical or otherwise, it is not without merit to conduct a focused study so that you can answer the null hpothesis conclsively then you can go on to the next question. This is how all research is conducted. It takes time and study. The trick is, we need these results and then we need the next question to build on this. First, we need to get this question answered conclusively. Maybe the next question is, "How often does K-K come?" Then, "How often are K-K and A-A up against each other?", and later, A-K, etc.

The bottom line, both sides of this dispute here have a point, but there is absolute merit to this study and it is completely inconclusive at this point. We are like a little lab starting research into a huge new field. Kudos to us... well, not really me, but you guys.

Four Dogs · Feb 8, 2008

BallsASteel said:
OK, here's my synopsis of the recent discord brought up. The postulation is that there are numerous potential ways online poker could be rigged out there. For our study here we are looking at whether or not sites are "juicing" the play by matching monster hands against each other thus increasing the rake and their profit. Now, to do this, we assume that A-A would show more frequently in the pocket than the statistical probability would indicate as as a measure that this indeed happening.

Now, this has brought up an excellent discussion and some great analysis. Of course, we can all dissect the null hypothesis and find flaws as to whether it would lead us to any conclusive results as to:

Is there rigging of the deal?

Is there true randomness in the dealing?

Is there cheating by players?

Is there cheating by the site?

Is there juicing by any means?

Now, as with any study, medical or otherwise, it is not without merit to conduct a focused study so that you can answer the null hpothesis conclsively then you can go on to the next question. This is how all research is conducted. It takes time and study. The trick is, we need these results and then we need the next question to build on this. First, we need to get this question answered conclusively. Maybe the next question is, "How often does K-K come?" Then, "How often are K-K and A-A up against each other?", and later, A-K, etc.

The bottom line, both sides of this dispute here have a point, but there is absolute merit to this study and it is completely inconclusive at this point. We are like a little lab starting research into a huge new field. Kudos to us... well, not really me, but you guys.

Well said.

jstnorv07 said:
The tyrant thing is the only one that was specifically meant for you.

lol

jstnorv07 · Feb 8, 2008

Here is a pretty out there idea that I just thought of that I reaize would probably be very difficult to achieve. Again please don't attack this as I know it is pure conjecture. What if a US player was playing someone in Berlin. There is an ever so slight delay between him seeing his hand and you seeing yours. Software is written that determines his hand after you make your move. i.e. you push all in with A's, instantly and unbeknownest to either... Berlin player sees K's and flop is set to drop a K. I hope I don't regret posting this one.

mange · Feb 8, 2008

Pocket AAs

I have matured enought in poker to realize that just because I glance down at a pocket pair of AAs, I have the winning hand. Or a sure thing.

In a tourney last nite, I had Pocket AAs on the button. One player to my left bet raised the BB 800 chips, another called, I went all in and everyone called.

Player with the Pocket 77 wins with three sevens.

I was out of the tourney. But, was not surprised or upset, because with that many callers, I knew the odds of me winning dropped drastically.

Of course, I was not impressed with the player who called a raise and reraise with pocket 77s.

In days of old, I would have been bent out of shape over this.

But, having seen it so many times, and finally realizing the odds, I left the game with a quit demeanor.

LMAO

ange

one

mange · Feb 8, 2008

angie

Sorry, spelled my screen name wrong. Playing poker and writing here at same time.

Can see only half of the sheet.

lol

angie

Four Dogs · Feb 8, 2008

angie said:
I have matured enought in poker to realize that just because I glance down at a pocket pair of AAs, I have the winning hand. Or a sure thing.

In a tourney last nite, I had Pocket AAs on the button. One player to my left bet raised the BB 800 chips, another called, I went all in and everyone called.

Player with the Pocket 77 wins with three sevens.

I was out of the tourney. But, was not surprised or upset, because with that many callers, I knew the odds of me winning dropped drastically.

Of course, I was not impressed with the player who called a raise and reraise with pocket 77s.

In days of old, I would have been bent out of shape over this.

But, having seen it so many times, and finally realizing the odds, I left the game with a quit demeanor.

LMAO

ange

one

Healthy stoicism Angie.

BallsASteel · Feb 8, 2008

Yeah, those pesky Loose players. I'm beginning to think they don't need to mess with the deals with players they have nowadays. Maybe five years ago, but today? Everyone calls!!!!

skoldpadda · Feb 9, 2008

FTP: Hands 6646 and AA 30 (just about as expected) -- win 90%
PS: Hands 5365 and AA 30 (higher than expected) -- win 83.33%

Four Dogs · Feb 9, 2008

skoldpadda said:
Full Tilt Poker: Hands 6646 and AA 30 (just about as expected) -- win 90%
PS: Hands 5365 and AA 30 (higher than expected) -- win 83.33%

Well it took about 2 weeks for someone to finally get this thread back on track. Thanks skoldpadda. GL this afternoon in event #1.

Here's the update. I don't know about anyone else, but Full Tilt is starting to look a little sick.

mange · Feb 9, 2008

Hey Chatters,

I have nothing to add to this blog. It is interesting reading. Just want to "bump" this thread to let you all know that it is being read.

Thanks

angie

Four Dogs · Feb 10, 2008

That depends on who the site is licensed through. Both PokerStars and Full Tilt are licensed by the Kahnawake Gaming Commission. Independent auditing is a requirement with the KGC.

jstnorv07 · Feb 11, 2008

Four Dogs said:
That depends on who the site is licensed through. Both PokerStars and Full Tilt are licensed by the Kahnawake Gaming Commission. Independent auditing is a requirement with the KGC.

How independent can it be if the people doing the auditing are being paid by the people who are getting audited?

Four Dogs · Feb 11, 2008

They are not. I'm prettey sure that the cost comes from their $10,000/yr licensing fee to the KMC. I looked this up about 3 years ago but I wouldn't object to anyone checking back into it. Like I said before, I'm not in league with any pokersites nor do I have blind faith in their integrity. I'd be very interested in the answer to this question. It would make a nice thread of it's own.

KeepBlinkin · Feb 13, 2008

AA is in my opinion the best preflop cards you can obtain but wath out for 2 pairs, flush or a straight hand at the flop

Four Dogs · Feb 13, 2008

KeepBlinkin said:
AA is in my opinion the best preflop cards you can obtain but wath out for 2 pairs, flush or a straight hand at the flop

lol. Well there you have it. [Ath,Ath] ith the betht. I gueth we can clothe thith thwead now.

ky7 · Feb 15, 2008

I dont think online poker is rigged but its hard to get the rockets but wh needs them i dont . When I get AA I have 75% of losing in that hand .lol

but thats me.

wachinpntdry · Feb 15, 2008

Four Dogs said:
lol. Well there you have it. [Ath,Ath] ith the betht. I gueth we can clothe thith thwead now.

ha haaaa.....thwats too funny.....

wathinpntdwy

byronn1 · Feb 15, 2008

Hi,
Yeah this sure has been a debate that has been raging for a long time. Just a few points that I think shoould be raised.
1) the odds of any pair is 1:169 per dealt hand.
2) you should be looking at the pairs EVERYHAND is dealt not just yours i.e for every deal the odds of a pocket pair for ANYONE is 1:169
3) What skews the results of what shows is the poker sites way of dealing the cards. The deck is randomly shuffled, then betting takes place, then the remaing cards are randomly shuffled AGAIN, before the flop is dealt, then betting, then shuffled. Poker sites say they do this because it stops software predicting the cards BUT what it is doing is skewing the deal.

Hopefully this gives you something to think about.

highway26776 · Feb 16, 2008

is this for real ?

i saw a hand at UB about half an hour ago wish i had saved it now ive seen this thread 4 players went all in two had KK two had AA chances of that?

Four Dogs · Feb 17, 2008

Nobody has contributed any Ultimatebet stats yet. Why don't you donate yours and I'll add it to the table?

SavagePenguin · Feb 18, 2008

More PS stats.
3,688 more hands since last time, and 20 A/A's.

Four Dogs · Feb 18, 2008

TY SP. I'll add this tonight along with some of my own.

Four Dogs · Feb 19, 2008

Thank you SP, you're humble and lovable.

SavagePenguin said:
More PS stats.
3,688 more hands since last time, and 20 A/A's.

Rigged: The AA test

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