Suckout statistics

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

So many people complain about suckouts. That poker RNG is not fair, that particular poker rooms are not fair. From time to time players do some researches, like in this thread
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/general-poker-13/aa-amp-amp-ak-allin-experiment-484710/
'I play al in AA KK AK 33 times, i win 6 i lose 10'
How many callers did you get? What hands you get called by? Why you include AK in your research? And most importantly, a sample of 33 hands should show what exactly?
You wana do research, you do it properly.
You make an open source software that analyses given hands history for suckout statistics.
Then we can do some proper researches. Anyone could load his hand history there, anyone could see the source code of the software, and maybe we could have some database of players stats for different poker sites.
Now i myself don't worry much about poker sites RNG being rigged. But i just see too many people complain, and such software is not very hard to develop so why don't some fellow programmer enthusiasts join this project and we can do some proper research.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

Anyone likes the idea? Any programmers here? Any suggestions on this project?
We can have all kinds of statistics there.
We don't have to trust those who officially checked poker sites RNG.
We can check the stuff ourself.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

By the way, i didn't tell that i am a programmer and i can implement such software by myself fairly easy.
If there be any interest in the community.
Well franckly sometimes i do wonder if there anything fishy going on. I mainly play on ACR and i forgot when was the last time i had say set vs set suckout. Or i flop a nut straight and then sombody hit his gutshot to a higher straight. Which is happened to me just today on PokerStars. And i know that my data sample is much bigger for ACR.
But yeah, sure. Much more players on PS much more donks that call with krap. Anyway.
Thats not enough data to make any statements.

frnandoh · May 4, 2021

I can just give you a tip: if you trust in a room, play there, if you dont trust so dont play. Playing with no trust may be addiction.

dregan · May 4, 2021

When I first started playing poker, I also doubted the honesty of the sites. And I also wonder how honest the rooms are with us. On the other hand, the site doesn't need to do that. He only gets rake from the money lying on the tables.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

frnandoh said:
I can just give you a tip: if you trust in a room, play there, if you dont trust so dont play. Playing with no trust may be addiction.

Who even knows nowadays whom to trust and what to trust. How do you know it? Its the software like that could get a room more trust. Or take it away.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

Well maybe some day i will make such program. Just for fun.

MrPokerVerse · May 4, 2021

Going all in is a poor way to play to prove statistics. It is not conclusive, there is no learning curve and you still have not proven anything without looking at the data and breaking it down. If four people are in the hand with AA, you are 20% to win where as HU you are 80%.

People looking at those type of caparison, need to look at the bigger picture. Run a program with ample hand history. Start looking at how you played a hand and what to do differently. If you're going take a lazy approach to getting better (not sure this test proves anything), look at aspects that teach you something besides how a RNG works. When you get to that point with online poker, play the lottery of play live.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

No, i did not mean program for al in situations. I meant whatever hands, also not only your hands but other hands people played without you on your table.
And then see the stats how often say a straight loses to a flush on later straights or stuff like that.

MrPokerVerse said:
Going all in is a poor way to play to prove statistics. It is not conclusive, there is no learning curve and you still have not proven anything without looking at the data and breaking it down. If four people are in the hand with AA, you are 20% to win where as HU you are 80%.

People looking at those type of caparison, need to look at the bigger picture. Run a program with ample hand history. Start looking at how you played a hand and what to do differently. If you're going take a lazy approach to getting better (not sure this test proves anything), look at aspects that teach you something besides how a RNG works. When you get to that point with online poker, play the lottery of play live.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

Please read my posts again. There i said
1. That i am not concerned too much about RNG
2. That i don't blame RNG on anything.
3. That i just see too many people complaining and wana help them. And this advice you giving its actually the hard one. Frm the point where some novice players are right now, to the point when they are good enough in poker, it would take a long long way for them. So if there be an easier way to make people stop fearing RNG factor, that would be great
4. That i myself see some differences in bad beats. Again, im approaching this situation from different side. I have no problems with my game and im not blaming nobody or nothing. I just see things.

MrPokerVerse said:
Going all in is a poor way to play to prove statistics. It is not conclusive, there is no learning curve and you still have not proven anything without looking at the data and breaking it down. If four people are in the hand with AA, you are 20% to win where as HU you are 80%.

People looking at those type of caparison, need to look at the bigger picture. Run a program with ample hand history. Start looking at how you played a hand and what to do differently. If you're going take a lazy approach to getting better (not sure this test proves anything), look at aspects that teach you something besides how a RNG works. When you get to that point with online poker, play the lottery of play live.

Lolocomondo · May 4, 2021

The online poker companies already make money through rake, so i don't believe that they would like to interrupt that through software because that would be straight visible from the pros who already use software to analyze their hands and the relevance.

martinf1971 · May 4, 2021

Yesterday I had AA 3 times I lost 2 won 1 the one I won everybody folded before i got chance to bet the 2 i lost was against KK and Qs Ts. Suck out all the time always seems to be when i have AK someone has AA go figure.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

Nah the more i think about it the more it looks like a waste of time. Too many things you gota consider. To have such stats really showing the picture, you need all the players making similar moves. If people on PS on micros tend to call with flush draw for whatever bet - this would not show up in such research. Or make another dumb plays.
So yeah. Whatever guys.
Just play whatever room floats your boat. No real way to find out if its proper RNG or not. Just play the game and have fun.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

martinf1971 said:
Yesterday I had AA 3 times I lost 2 won 1 the one I won everybody folded before i got chance to bet the 2 i lost was against KK and Qs Ts. Suck out all the time always seems to be when i have AK someone has AA go figure.

Yes. But how the hands go? Were those al ins? If yes - then you can just blame it on donkeys. I dont really see people on ACR calling all ins with such hands.
If those were not al ins, then again, first of all you need bigger sample size. You cannot tell for 3 hands.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

Lolocomondo said:
The online poker companies already make money through rake, so i don't believe that they would like to interrupt that through software because that would be straight visible from the pros who already use software to analyze their hands and the relevance.

We can make such assumptions all day long. And such software could rule out stuff once and for all.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

This is not a thread about bad beats and RNG. There is such megathread here already. This is specificly about some software that could potentially analyze hand histories and show some statistics of suckouts.
But i changed my mind really. Such software aint gona show much. If we have sample where EVERY player go al in and then go the flop, and then we analyze such hand history for several rooms with some 10 000 hands, that would show somthing. But if people play different on different rooms we not gonna make much researches with such data

Lolocomondo · May 4, 2021

I totally agree. The first thing you have to do is to enjoy the game itself. About the probabilities, it's just numbers once there are with you and you lose and another time against you and you win. I've lost many times times in the river with my opponent having 3 outs for example but it's fine, i've also won with the same amount. Enjoy the game!

MrPokerVerse · May 4, 2021

abgvedr said:
Please read my posts again. There i said
1. That i am not concerned too much about RNG
2. That i don't blame RNG on anything.
3. That i just see too many people complaining and wana help them. And this advice you giving its actually the hard one. Frm the point where some novice players are right now, to the point when they are good enough in poker, it would take a long long way for them. So if there be an easier way to make people stop fearing RNG factor, that would be great
4. That i myself see some differences in bad beats. Again, im approaching this situation from different side. I have no problems with my game and im not blaming nobody or nothing. I just see things.

You referenced a thread, reply was in regards to that. My statement goes along with your post.

MrPokerVerse · May 4, 2021

abgvedr said:
This is not a thread about bad beats and RNG. There is such megathread here already. This is specificly about some software that could potentially analyze hand histories and show some statistics of suckouts.
But i changed my mind really. Such software aint gona show much. If we have sample where EVERY player go al in and then go the flop, and then we analyze such hand history for several rooms with some 10 000 hands, that would show somthing. But if people play different on different rooms we not gonna make much researches with such data

Holdem Manager software.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

Lolocomondo said:
I totally agree. The first thing you have to do is to enjoy the game itself. About the probabilities, it's just numbers once there are with you and you lose and another time against you and you win. I've lost many times times in the river with my opponent having 3 outs for example but it's fine, i've also won with the same amount. Enjoy the game!

Well yes, but its important to calculate those odds and make the right moves. If you are a winning player you will be enjoying the game much more efficiently

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

MrPokerVerse said:
Holdem Manager software.

Omg man, you cannot bolden one part of sentence 'Analyze the hand history', and not bolden another part - 'And show what statistics'.
You cannot take it out of the context. You just don't do that

I said Analyze suckout statistics. Does HM show that? I dunno maybe yes. If yes you tell here 'Yes it already shows it'

EDIT
Cause i dont use no software, and i kind of thought that no software would be showing such stats. They are kind of. Useless. You know.

abgvedr · May 4, 2021

You can analyze the crap out of any data. For whatever statistics you want.
You wana analyze weird stuff like 'How many antes you lost on the Button' - go analyze the data

MrPokerVerse · May 4, 2021

abgvedr said:
Omg man, you cannot bolden one part of sentence 'Analyze the hand history', and not bolden another part - 'And show what statistics'.
You cannot take it out of the context. You just don't do that
I said Analyze suckout statistics. Does HM show that? I dunno maybe yes. If yes you tell here 'Yes it already shows it'

EDIT
Cause i dont use no software, and i kind of thought that no software would be showing such stats. They are kind of. Useless. You know.

It has a free trial version. Why not “bolden” the portion you are answering? You answered you’re own question. No one should worry about suckouts.

abgvedr · May 5, 2021

MrPokerVerse said:
No one should worry about suckouts.

frnandoh said:
I can just give you a tip: if you trust in a room, play there, if you dont trust so dont play. Playing with no trust may be addiction.

So if i have suckout every second hand i should not worry about it?

And the replies telling not to play on room you don't trust - We are on a poker forum.
First of all we can discuss whatever we want here.
If i don't trust some poker room and i have some evidence - i want to spread the word.
Don't be so powerless and weak folks.

MrPokerVerse · May 5, 2021

Do you think you have more suck outs than the average? With a good sample size, you should be able to determine if the odds of winning are in line with the math.

Suck outs are two way street, going win some you shouldn’t and lose some. So in that regards, don’t worry about it.

Suckout statistics

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