Variance: Comments needed

VARIANCE
I researched how the term, variance, is used by poker players. Here are some results. Variance is:

(a) the difference between expectations and outcomes,
(b) good or bad luck in a game of chance,
(c) determined by mathematics,
(d) a decrease or increase in the size of table stacks,
(e) upswings or downswings in playing poker over time.

Anyone want to comment on one or all???

Well technically all of this except d) is true and a) is the most correct. The easiest explanation for me is following.

Sometimes you take the correct decision in certain situation but you loose. Other times you take the wrong decision but you win. Both cases are example of variance. Variance is the element of luck in the poker game. It can help you sometimes and it can bring you down in other cases.


In fact variance is the thing that makes this game so interesting because the end result depends partially from your skill and partially from luck. If everything depends only on player's skill it would be chess and not poker and every time good player will win over weak player.


Variance can be very harmful sometimes and can cause serious loosing streaks where you play the game well, take the correct decisions and despite of that you continue to loose. Very important in such situations is to not allow this to tilt you influencing your game and to have very good bankroll management and deep enough bankroll so that you can overcome such loosing streaks. Variance can also bring you winning streaks where everything is on your side and you win much more money than usual. This of course is something good but strict bankroll management is also very important here because many players are tempted in such cases to play at much higher stakes than they normally do and this is recipe for disaster.


In general if you play good, take the right decisions and have good bankroll management you should be able to mitigate the effects of variance and when you play more and more hands variance will affect you less and less.

n General, it does not matter how the term is interpreted by individual poker players or representatives of other areas of knowledge. Variance is a mathematical quantity that reflects the variation of deviations from standard values. For example, throwing a ball in the roulette 1000 and even 10,000 times it will fall in each number the same number of times, but in short intervals of throws it will be more often in certain numbers. Poker too. Have AA, for example, 80% percent against a random hand, but in this week you can with these aces never win.:icon_rr:

Have to agree with the first poster. In a perfect world, "C" would be in line with the odds for the long term.

To me it is a few things. You make the mathmatically correct decision and still lose. Usually though, we make decisions based on technically flawed methodologies and get a different than expected outcome. I.e. "I did what I always do and lost when I usually win".

I'm stuck on that last one.

Thank you very much for your replies. They were all quite interesting. Thanks again. PS509fio: upswings and downswings in playing poker over time - this came from Daniel. He was talking about losing and winning games over a year. The downswings really meant losses and the upswings were winnings. He got into a chat about ruts, meaning downswings, and how it was important just to put them behind and to keep on going. Best wishes.

Variance is mathematics and it is something natural, which we meet it in our lifes every moment! It is not something that should make you nervous!

I like answer A the most since it seems to be the closest to the definition. However I also like answer E because this is something that variance explains. You can go on upswings and downswings in poker as a result of variance. However over the long term the roll that variance plays in your success is minimized. So if you are still a losing player after 50k hands, that is no longer the result of variance, that is the result of your performance as a poker player.

A) is the most accurate as others have already stated ITT ! I think it best exemplifies both the good and bad sides of variance. At the end of the day poker has chance so pull up a seat and enjoy the SWONGS both good and bad .