Variance is huge

s0ftdumps

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  • #1
Does anyone else sometimes think the variance in poker is so big that it would be physically impossible to play enough hands to know if you are a stinker or if you are just having bad luck. The only way I think you can actually know you're good is intense study or to be skilledand lucky at the same time.
 
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  • #2
In big MTTs (especially LIVE) you probably never can see your true win rate.

In Cash games, most players can come pretty close after a million hands or so.
 
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  • #3
A better word for it would be luck. The variance is so great online that most of the tournaments played are based on the cards and how they fall for you. You need to consider that to win an MTT you need to win multiple flips. You can get knocked out by a bad beat at almost any stage.
 
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  • #4
Of course, in poker you can't figure out if you played poorly or if you were just unlucky. You can understand it very easily. After playing, download your hands and just start analyzing each hand where you lose a lot of money and you will understand where and how you played wrong and in the future you will not make the same mistakes
 
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  • #5
s0ftdumps said:
Does anyone else sometimes think the variance in poker is so big that it would be physically impossible to play enough hands to know if you are a stinker or if you are just having bad luck. The only way I think you can actually know you're good is intense study or to be skilledand lucky at the same time.
Click to expand...

I don't know about impossible but it certainly takes a long time for everything to iron out.

Right now I'm running good. The past 8500 hands I'm winning at 22BB/100. My all in-adjusted BB/100 is 13 so I've had at least 9BB/100 of good luck for every 100 hands. If it was 9BB/100 of bad luck I'd have won just 4BB/100 instead over the same number of hands. A swing of 18BB/100 one way or the other in that time. It's crazy!

That's just for all-ins, I could have been subject to good fortune in general play too. That 22BB could realisticaly be 0BB, or even a loss.

It's a small sample but the point stands. I think we need a few hundred thousand hands to really know if we're good/bad, lucky/unlucky.

This is very interesting:
 
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  • #6
It depends on the format- there is a big difference between games like spins and 9 man reg format sngs.

If you get 10k games in a given format and buyin you can be pretty sure that your ROI is accurate.
 
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  • #7
NootNoot said:
I don't know about impossible but it certainly takes a long time for everything to iron out.

Right now I'm running good. The past 8500 hands I'm winning at 22BB/100. My all in-adjusted BB/100 is 13 so I've had at least 9BB/100 of good luck for every 100 hands. If it was 9BB/100 of bad luck I'd have won just 4BB/100 instead over the same number of hands. A swing of 18BB/100 one way or the other in that time. It's crazy!

That's just for all-ins, I could have been subject to good fortune in general play too. That 22BB could realisticaly be 0BB, or even a loss.

It's a small sample but the point stands. I think we need a few hundred thousand hands to really know if we're good/bad, lucky/unlucky.

This is very interesting:
Click to expand...
this video is what got me thinking about the concept! interesting stuff
 
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  • #8
Large variances in data suggest significant variability or spread among values. Understanding and addressing the factors contributing to the variance can help in refining analysis or improving processes. What specific context or data are you referring to?
 
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  • #9
The variance can actually be very large, but I believe this stops happening if you are playing very well. Either way, it will always exist.
 
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  • #10
s0ftdumps said:
Does anyone else sometimes think the variance in poker is so big that it would be physically impossible to play enough hands to know if you are a stinker or if you are just having bad luck. The only way I think you can actually know you're good is intense study or to be skilledand lucky at the same time.
Click to expand...
There is a very simple way to understand whether you are a good player or not. You have only two options. Poker either brings you regular income or it doesn't. If you have a regular income, it means that you are a good enough player. If there is no income, or it is very rare, it means that you are not a good enough player. In my opinion, everything is very simple and clear :)
 
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  • #11
If you have a decent win rate it will turn into positive result (in cash games) over enough hands. If you are break even it will be more difficult.

E.g. a game like 2NL where you can win 20bb/100 + it should be possible to see positive results quickly, whereas 200NL where you might win at 2bb/100 it will be more difficult to tell without perhaps 200k hands.

It should also be possible to have a feel as to whether you are losing from bad luck or bad play with a bit of hand analysis.
 
Lucho.riv9

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Well, that will depend on the number of hands you play per day. Obviously, playing cash tables allows you to play more hands in the same amount of time; however, by playing tournaments regularly, you will also reach a million hands.
 
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  • #13
Lucho.riv9 said:
Well, that will depend on the number of hands you play per day. Obviously, playing cash tables allows you to play more hands in the same amount of time; however, by playing tournaments regularly, you will also reach a million hands.
Click to expand...
yea it all depends on the rate of course. I just don't think that it is possible for me to commit to a high enough rate!
 
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  • #14
s0ftdumps said:
Does anyone else sometimes think the variance in poker is so big that it would be physically impossible to play enough hands to know if you are a stinker or if you are just having bad luck. The only way I think you can actually know you're good is intense study or to be skilledand lucky at the same time.
Click to expand...

I don't think its imposable, but I would say many players don't play enough to get to that point. 100K hands in cash is not enough but once you get to say 1 or even 2 million hands you would have a pretty good idea. You would need to remember that you style of play is always changing so you ROI will too.

As for tournaments poker? I don't know if you can get enough games in Easly to get rid of variance. Toget rid of it totally and know your roi could take thousands of tournements.
 
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