Is "Variance" just another term for "Luck"?

Jericho1991 · Feb 26, 2023

Can someone help me understand please? I think I have a very bad variance.. I think so. lol

iman_wd · Feb 26, 2023

important strategy is to focus on playing in games with lower variance. This may mean choosing games with lower stakes or games with fewer players. By reducing the variance in your games, you can reduce the impact of short-term luck on your results .

Jericho1991 · Feb 26, 2023

iman_wd said:
important strategy is to focus on playing in games with lower variance. This may mean choosing games with lower stakes or games with fewer players. By reducing the variance in your games, you can reduce the impact of short-term luck on your results .

Ok so variance is something that helps me with my luck, right? Thanks. I still don't know what variance is though.

iman_wd · Feb 26, 2023

it's important to maintain a positive attitude and avoid tilt. Tilt refers to a state of emotional frustration or distress that can cause you to make poor decisions. By staying calm and focused, you can avoid making mistakes that can be costly in the long run. Remember, the key to long-term success in poker is making good decisions, not just winning every hand . and finally variance is like the marketplace you know its not every time on a straightforward directions ! it has own up and downs in a while . but you can always be profitable in long run with controlling and managing this downswings or bad variances that you said recently .

mateuszjason · Feb 26, 2023

In poker, variance refers to the randomness of results in the short term, which can differ significantly from expected results in the long term. In other words, variance reflects the degree to which luck (or bad luck) affects the results of a game, regardless of the player's skill.

For example, if you play poker for a short period of time and are unlucky, you can lose a lot of money even if you play well. However, over a long period of time, the player's skill usually wins out over the randomness of the results, as luck evens out.

To reduce the variance in poker, you can take several actions:

Play more aggressively - playing more aggressively can force other players to fold, which will reduce the number of players in the hand and reduce the variance.

Play more cautiously - if you play more cautiously, there will be less risk of losing large amounts of money due to your opponents' luck.

Play smaller games - the smaller the game, the smaller the variance.

Play a more stable strategy - play a strategy that is more stable and predictable, rather than relying on a one-time hit of a good card or bluff.

Control your emotions - stay calm to avoid taking too many risks and stay in control of your game.

Ultimately, although variance is inevitable in poker, by taking the above steps, you can reduce its impact on your game's results.

Jericho1991 · Feb 26, 2023

iman_wd said:
it's important to maintain a positive attitude and avoid tilt. Tilt refers to a state of emotional frustration or distress that can cause you to make poor decisions. By staying calm and focused, you can avoid making mistakes that can be costly in the long run. Remember, the key to long-term success in poker is making good decisions, not just winning every hand . and finally variance is like the marketplace you know its not every time on a straightforward directions ! it has own up and downs in a while . but you can always be profitable in long run with controlling and managing this downswings or bad variances that you said recently .

gotcha. Thanks buddy.

YLAN · Feb 26, 2023

let me try. poker variance is the resulting statistics of your chances or odds or "luck" to win.

If you flip a coin a hundred times, you would expect to win 50 times. If you win 54 times, then you have experienced positive variance. If you win 46 times, you would have experienced negative variance.

Jericho1991 · Feb 26, 2023

mateuszjason said:
In poker, variance refers to the randomness of results in the short term, which can differ significantly from expected results in the long term. In other words, variance reflects the degree to which luck (or bad luck) affects the results of a game, regardless of the player's skill.

For example, if you play poker for a short period of time and are unlucky, you can lose a lot of money even if you play well. However, over a long period of time, the player's skill usually wins out over the randomness of the results, as luck evens out.

To reduce the variance in poker, you can take several actions:

Play more aggressively - playing more aggressively can force other players to fold, which will reduce the number of players in the hand and reduce the variance.

Play more cautiously - if you play more cautiously, there will be less risk of losing large amounts of money due to your opponents' luck.

Play smaller games - the smaller the game, the smaller the variance.

Play a more stable strategy - play a strategy that is more stable and predictable, rather than relying on a one-time hit of a good card or bluff.

Control your emotions - stay calm to avoid taking too many risks and stay in control of your game.

Ultimately, although variance is inevitable in poker, by taking the above steps, you can reduce its impact on your game's results.

Thanks for the advice. I think I understand more now on "Variance" now. I do take those steps above but sometimes my emotions get to me. lol

Jericho1991 · Feb 26, 2023

YLAN said:
let me try. poker variance is the resulting statistics or mathematics of your chances or odds or "luck" to win.

If you flip a coin a hundred times, you would expect to win 50 times. If you win 54 times, then you have experienced positive variance. If you win 46 times, you would have experienced negative variance.

I've read that somewhere. Did you read that from the same website?

YLAN · Feb 26, 2023

Jericho1991 said:
I've read that somewhere. Did you read that from the same website?

I guess I read it somewhere but its best simple example to try & explain variance.

pescaofish · Feb 26, 2023

Variance is a statistical term that refers to deviation from the mean. In games as Poker the variance is always present; for example: if you get AA preflop, and get another A in the flop, still there is the probability of someone getting a better hand as straight, flush, full house, straight flush, Poker, Royal flush; so there always be a probability of a "bad beat" and is attributed to the Variance, or you may call it bad luck. by playing and betting strong hands you may reduce the variance but there will always be some involved unless you get the best possible hand for a given game

Gallarado777 · Feb 26, 2023

you understand everything correctly and it's right that luck is just called and told differently, but the meaning is almost the same so everything is normal for you, good luck, friend, let you be successful at poker

hcuervo · Feb 26, 2023

Variance is the closest thing to poker decline and bad luck attracts players

juan1579 · Feb 26, 2023

I think that term is mathematical not to mention good or bad luck hahahaha

VGShaa · Feb 26, 2023

There is no such term as luck; there is a theory of the probability of a given situation. In poker, these are called variances.

Poker_Mike · Feb 27, 2023

I thought variance refers to the ups and downs of your poker results. i.e. your poker results vary

If you run good for a number of games then you will run bad for a number of games and then run good and bad again.

Variance is the results of your good and bad luck.

MK_ · Feb 28, 2023

Variance expects to win 50% of coin flips,
luck knows you will lose 75% of coins flips

Dorugremon · Feb 28, 2023

Variance -- variance is a measure of deviation from the mean, and basically quantifies luck.

Academico · Feb 28, 2023

iman_wd said:
important strategy is to focus on playing in games with lower variance. This may mean choosing games with lower stakes or games with fewer players. By reducing the variance in your games, you can reduce the impact of short-term luck on your results .

Is there less variance in the game of lower input value? I do not get it

LUKADONCICMVP · Feb 28, 2023

for sure is some people don´t want to admit that they are more lucky than the others.

spunka · Feb 28, 2023

You play the same pokertournament 100 times against the same players which is at the same skill level.
you are now supposed to win 1 time out of 100 games, if you win 2 times you beat the variance (get lucky) and get more than you are supposed to get. If you do not get a win as you are supposed to you lose to variance ( get unlucky)…
so in 1000 you are supposed to win 10 times if you do not then ……

andron205 · Feb 28, 2023

where, for example, in Omaha a lot depends on luck. Otherwise, a good distance heals any variance if you add a good game to it.

JeLeuMic · Feb 28, 2023

Variance is just something that happens. Like in life, variance with friends, jobs, and people..etc

iman_wd · Mar 1, 2023

Academico said:
Is there less variance in the game of lower input value? I do not get it

When you play at lower stakes, the amount of money you stand to win or lose in each hand is smaller. This can reduce the impact of swings in luck and make the results more predictable. For example, if you're playing a $1/$2 game, you might win or lose $100 in a single hand. But if you're playing a $0.25/$0.50 game, you might only win or lose $25 in a single hand. This can help to smooth out your results over time and reduce the variance.

Rockyfour · Mar 1, 2023

if you are a losing player your downswing will be permanent. Keep that in mind.

Is "Variance" just another term for "Luck"?

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