Variance, yes or no?

belizebum · Apr 1, 2024

Do you believe in variance? Honestly they keep telling me it's true. Funny, I spent some time with a decent player who insisted it was true.. He took some time away, and now calls BS. Long run short run, you win, you lose...variance to me is a made up thing.

MK_ · Apr 2, 2024

I'm glad April Fools Day is almost over...

Gallarado777 · Apr 2, 2024

It depends on how you perceive the variance, believe in it or not and think you're the only one who loses with these hands, and that's how it will be if other people who believe it and all just have to accept the fact that you're almost always playing poker 40-60% or closer to that, and if you put up always older it's not always a win but if you constantly do it at a distance with 60% you will win and this will be the right decision and will bring you income

blueslate · Apr 2, 2024

The math is exact! Ex: I know that a pair of Aces will win 80% of the time, however, it happens to win 50/50, 20/80,90/100,40,60,100/100, in a situation of 10 hands played (short sample) . The variance is the short term! it can be good or bad. We have no control over it, however, when we increase the sample to 1000 situations, the result will always be the same! It will always be approximately 80% gain.

seiya1989 · Apr 2, 2024

I simply believe that there are people who are luckier than others and nothing else, and I will always think the same. In fact, here on the forum there are players who are usually luckier.

kunkgreen · Apr 2, 2024

Dude... Yes, it exists because it is a mathematical concept.

Look under 'probability and statistics' for concepts like standard deviation, expected value and everything else...
Maybe it will help you understand the concept behind the word 'variance'.

But in short, it's just about "how far" in general your results deviate from the expected value.

puzzlefish · Apr 2, 2024

It's like asking 'do you believe in averages' or anything else that's defined in statistics.

ninocabral · Apr 2, 2024

For me, variation is something that happens very often.

Sunz of Beaches · Apr 2, 2024

amonlima said:
however, when we increase the sample to 1000 situations, the result will always be the same! It will always be approximately 80% gain.

I could be wrong but this is most definitely not true. Even in 1000 Situations the results can highly vary imo.

U probably need a lot more. Like hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

@belizebum what a lame thread🥱 🙄

belizebum said:
now I go thru the thread more and see my name again and again...you people have lost your minds....lol. I don't get it...I fkn suck at this game...lol.

Ok. Lol.

thedarkman · Apr 2, 2024

Poker isn't chess where a much stronger player will win almost all the time. Of course there is variance otherwise aces would never lose.

black and · Apr 2, 2024

Each of us perceives certain situations differently, both in our personal life and in poker. Believe it or not, it doesn't really matter. The main thing is how confident you are in yourself, in your abilities, and how ready you are to go to your goal. Believe it or not, each of us chooses for himself what suits him better

ScooperNova · Apr 2, 2024

Variance isn't really something one should choose whether to believe in. It's just a mathematical fact when dealing with randomness. The issue here is that many people use the term or concept incorrectly or don't fully understand what it means. I will say, when 20% happens 80% of the time on certain poker sites for several thousand hands, that is something other than variance, or at least in addition to it.

Leandro6803 · Apr 2, 2024

variance is one of the fundamental bases of poker, so understanding the power of this word in the short and long term can help you a lot, especially in bad beats and periods of downswing.
Understand that strong hands win most of the time and that risky plays will be necessary for positive results.

blueslate · Apr 2, 2024

Suns of Beaches said:
I could be wrong but this is most definitely not true. Even in 1000 Situations the results can highly vary imo.

U probably need a lot more. Like hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

@belizebum what a lame thread🥱 🙄

Ok. Lol.

1000 situations of all in pre flop AA vs any two cards, I guarantee you will give an approximate number of 80% win!

Zaner · Apr 2, 2024

belizebum said:
Do you believe in variance? Honestly they keep telling me it's true. Funny, I spent some time with a decent player who insisted it was true.. He took some time away, and now calls BS. Long run short run, you win, you lose...variance to me is a made up thing.

for all pro players it's true.

Michel_11 · Apr 2, 2024

I'm impressed by the number of people who voted no.

Obviously, variation exists in poker. It's not a matter of opinion.

MishkaZL · Apr 3, 2024

I think most players, myself included, have good days and bad days. But in general, I think that our results depend primarily on us and on how we behave on certain days. I don't like to complicate anything, I just divided my game for myself into two conditional components, there are productive days and days when a break is a better option than a game

Iryna Stryzheuskaya · Apr 3, 2024

Reality doesn't matter whether you believe in it or not. That's just the way she is.

pentazepam · Apr 3, 2024

Variance is a nasty little xxxx

Poker Orifice · Apr 3, 2024

belizebum said:
Do you believe in variance? Honestly they keep telling me it's true. Funny, I spent some time with a decent player who insisted it was true.. He took some time away, and now calls BS. Long run short run, you win, you lose...variance to me is a made up thing.

April Fools jokes are supposed to end at 12noon on April 1st. Your post seems to be much later in the day on the 1st.

Poker Orifice · Apr 3, 2024

OP's question is like asking "Is this a car or is it a 'not car' ?"

Does OP know what variance is?

Poker Orifice · Apr 3, 2024

A good friend of mine, who drove cars for 30 years. moved away to a community in Thailand where he never drove a car. When he came back to Canada, he told me there's actually no such thing as cars.

PS - he is a good driver too!

TeUnit · Apr 3, 2024

Math is real.

DiegoRamos · Apr 3, 2024

belizebum said:
Do you believe in variance? Honestly they keep telling me it's true. Funny, I spent some time with a decent player who insisted it was true.. He took some time away, and now calls BS. Long run short run, you win, you lose...variance to me is a made up thing.

Imagine a sinusoidal graph, it goes up and down.
The middle point is your pure skill.
The top peak is your "A" game plus luck.
The low peak is skill plus bad luck.
The variation is the period of this wave from peak to peak, that is, high and low.
So no, the variation is not invented.
It's scary to see that 50% of the answers are no lol

VVi10 · Apr 3, 2024

I think that’s not the question believe pr not. Because the variance exists and we need to know how to deal with it.

Variance, yes or no?

Do you believe in variance?

Yes

No

belizebum

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blueslate

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puzzlefish

👆 the guy who's opinion you would trust on this!

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