When to bluff

In a article I read recently, it stated that poker players will be most effective if they bluff exactly 6% of the time or once every 17 hands.

I think this is a bold statement. It doesn't give the type of game (MTT, ring, sit n go) but I think if you're in a ring or sit n go, you should bluff a little more often. What do you think?

t1riel said:

In a article I read recently, it stated that poker players will be most effective if they bluff exactly 6% of the time or once every 17 hands.

I think this is a bold statement. It doesn't give the type of game (MTT, ring, sit n go) but I think if you're in a ring or sit n go, you should bluff a little more often. What do you think?

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Well, there is The Book of Bluffs which is the only of its kind. Its all about the OTHER player, not about your cards. The author is constantly pushing the idea of bluffing often. Each chapter is a new type of bluff. It states the degree of difficulty, the rate of success, and the rate of frequency of each bluff. It is very useful and uses many types of poker. I recommend picking one up.

Bluffing is hugely situational. There are times when you should never bluff and times when you should bluff at every given opportunity. Some of the factors include:

- Number of players in the pot
- Position
- Type of players in the pot/still to act
- Size of blinds (in tourneys)
- Draws/possibilities your hand has

I've been thinking of writing either an article or an essay for the forums on it, and I may well do when I have the time/inclination to do so.

Like dorkus stated, it has a lot to do with the situation or players . Usually you should tend to bluff more against the tight players, then against the losse ( call station ) players . Against the call stations, you can make value bets . Why would you bluff against someone you know his gonna call you ? Another situation is, when playing against someone who raises preflop , and the board brings small cards, this is a situation wherre you can try a bluff, if he doesnt have a pocket pair, he will mostlikely fold since he didnt hit, and if he reraises , evaluate the situation and decide if your beat ( this is usually in tournaments )

Maybe the 1 in 17 is to keep a tight table image but the downside to that is when you do have a hand it may be hard to get any action. I believe you need to bluff a little more often. As Mr. Brunson says; "If you want action, you have to give action".

No, Bluff frequency is based in game theory. Actually John Nash's mathematics is applied to it. In a nut shell, bluffing 6% of the time is excellent and there is no way or any opponent on earth to defend against it.

Here is the thread:
https://www.cardschat.com/showthread.php?t=59663

Bill

I disagree with the 6%, though I'm not for the Mathematic approach...

Bluffing is a skill which is vital to this game of course, as you can't always rely on having good cards. The ONLY time to bluff is when you can identify weakness. The problem with that , is depending how skilled your opponett is. A good strategy is bluffing early and show your opponetts. As first impressions will often stick with the table , immediately they will associate you as being the "type" and when you have good cards it spells for their disaster.

All the wins I have had, most of the money has been from well placed bluffs. Though this all depends on the style you are trying to play. Tight Aggressive players who bluff later on the game often find much success because people think you'll only play with good cards.

When NOT to bluff

As has already been said, not enough information for a good reply or for any basis to disagree. I can offer experience in small stakes, though.

I play B&M and the only HE games spread are 3/6 & 4/8, usually 9 seats. Most days the 3/6 is 7 loose chasers. A typical "No Fold'em" game. If your bluff % rises above 0, you're in for a heap'a hurtin'.

The 4/8 gets the better players. Chasers drop to maybe 2. But - it's not unusual for 6-7 to see the flop even if the action's capped. Not much sense in a pre-flop bluff if 7 are determined to see a flop no matter what.

Playing the flop, in position and if it's checked around, a bluff will occasionally pay off. Here, though, is where you absolutely must know the other players. Some guys really get off on c/r'g and others are too weak to bet out or raise from EP with a small set or small pairs.

Bottom line, be careful accepting the 6% number as a hard rule. If you play thousands of hands online and use tracking software, it might be an interesting statistic to check against your own play.

I believe this is a long term stat. Not for one session or two, but something over a couple of weeks to a month at a time to look at.

I look at poker earning as the stock market. You can always play it safe and any play premium hands that will most likely make money. I look at bluffing as high rist investment. Sometimes they can pay off huge and other times the go bust. If you invest too much in high risk you are actually losing money and if you don't do it enough you never can reap those rewards. You need to find the balance and mathmatically it is about 6%. I think brokers say to have about 10% of your portfolio in high risk.

How many times do you do a semi bluff and get called or reraised and forced to let it go or lose the hand. If you are doing it too often then you may have a leak in your game and you need to tighten up. You may also need to do it more often because you are letting some possible earns go by not taking a stab at it.

Why do people value bluffing so much?
#1 I tend to remember bad beats and good bluffs more than I do hands I played correctly and won. Therefore you may think you are bluffing more than you actually do, just because you can remember them more easily. Example, listen to your poker buddies stories. 95% of them will be bad beat or successful bluffs, not well played hands unless it was a huge cash pot.

#2 TV. Yes the best and worst thing for poker. You see the pros do it (good TV) but you do not get why they do it or saw the three or four hands that set up the bluff. You did not see them lay down a couple of hands to bets, you just see him reraise all in with nothing and the other person giving him the respect the bet deserves.

Yea whoever said that wasn't considering the different types of poker. When playing in hold'em tournaments, you dont need to bluff that often in the first half of the tournament, but towards the end it is impertive that you bluff, and bluff often, especially when you are at the final table. When i won my first tourney on pokerstars, I was bluffing pretty much 50% of the time, and that's the only reason why I won 1st place.

JRskatr said:

Yea whoever said that wasn't considering the different types of poker. When playing in hold'em tournaments, you dont need to bluff that often in the first half of the tournament, but towards the end it is impertive that you bluff, and bluff often, especially when you are at the final table. When i won my first tourney on pokerstars, I was bluffing pretty much 50% of the time, and that's the only reason why I won 1st place.

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That's a great point. Bluffing early on too frequently is sure to get you in trouble. I like to use this time to build my table image. In the later stages of a tournament it is always a good idea to change-up your play and become more aggressive in my opinion.

That's a great point too. Playing tight early on does not only save you chips in the first half of the tourney. Playing tight also develops a favorable table image. When people think you are a tight player, they are more likely to fold to your bets later in the tournament, even if you are bluffing. However notice the players that are still playing tight later in the tournament; they are highly unfavorable to win the tournament, so make sure you steal their blinds as much as you can.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

Bluffing is hugely situational. There are times when you should never bluff and times when you should bluff at every given opportunity. Some of the factors include:

- Number of players in the pot
- Position
- Type of players in the pot/still to act
- Size of blinds (in tourneys)
- Draws/possibilities your hand has

I've been thinking of writing either an article or an essay for the forums on it, and I may well do when I have the time/inclination to do so.

Click to expand...

Nice analize.

Bluffing should be avoided, except on very rare occasions.
But when i have fish on the table i bluff 4 on 10 situations.