🎯 Where does the variance end and the bad game start?

🎯 Where does the variance end and the bad game start?

Probably, every poker player at least once after a series of unsuccessful tournaments said to himself: “It's just variance.” But is this always true?

Sometimes it seems like the cards are just mocking: you lose your strongest hands for several days in a row, you don't get out, the coolers go one after another. And then you start reviewing the cases and realize that some of the problems were not in the cards at all, but in my game.

How do you define for yourself the boundary between normal variance and real observations of the quality of the game?

📌 See distance statistics and results?
📌 Do you review the events after the session?
📌 Taking a break after a series of failures?
📌 Or do we just keep playing until you “let go”?

And the big question is Have you ever been recording everything for variance for months and then investigating that your game was actually the problem?

Let's share real stories — I think it will be useful for many people to read. ♠️

Great discussion. I think the key is being honest with yourself. Variance is real, especially in poker, but it can also become an excuse to ignore mistakes. I usually look at hand histories, track results over a larger sample size, and review decisions when emotions are gone. Sometimes the cards are just brutal, but sometimes those bad runs reveal leaks in your game that need fixing cookie clicker

This is a very good question, especially because variance in tournaments can last for so long, that its really difficult to determine, how we are actually performing adjusted for luck. I dont have any brilliant answer to this. But one of the things, I personally do, is to observe game quality, if I try new games, be it higher stakes, a different site or a different game type. And if the game seem soft enough and has a reasonable rake and structure, I kind of have to trust, that I will eventually be able to beat that game, even though I might start out losing. If on the other hand the game does not seem soft, I dont need to seek confirmation from results over 1.000`s of games before deciding to play something else.

I think the easiest way to see if you have had "style drift" or if you are playing well and just getting unlucky is just to review your hands.

If you do not find a bunch of ICM errors, you agree with the villans ranges, and you have solid long term roi, then its probably variance.

Another thing you can do is have a good player review your hands, its better if they play in the same games, but not necessary.

You can also run a leakbuster on yourself and see what the errors are.

I also like to look at the best player in the formats stats and see how yours compare. Maybe you will find they steal more than you thought from the cutoff etc.

Sometime the regs will also adjust to your play, so maybe they are hero calling you and you need to adjust your ranges.