Why The Average Person Can't Win In Poker?

arenaci · Sep 15, 2020

I hear many times that an average person can not win at poker in the long run. Why?

Oxinthewater · Sep 15, 2020

A very simple answer would be the house rake - if the house takes 5-10% of the pot, that means the average player will not be winning, they'll be break even against the field and losing to the house. A player has to be very good to beat both the field and the rake, and often that's beyond the average person.

Obviously not in all circumstances though, a microstakes table late Saturday night (western european time) should be beatable for an average person following straightforward but robust strategies.

DougPkrMonsta · Sep 15, 2020

There is a significant learning curve - it is hard to play winning poker without a serious time investment... learning and practicing, developing discipline, learning how to size bets effectively, developing an understanding of your opponents' tendencies and how to adjust to them.

Obviously this is just the beginning, there are so many poker concepts you must learn to be successful (some of which can only be learned by losing initially), but these are just a few examples of why it is so challenging to win.

Meanwhile poker can be extremely frustrating for new players who think they've got it all figured out, but in reality they are just scratching the surface. It is very common for people to think they're much better than they are, mainly because they aren't even aware of the things they don't know.

A good example:

There are people on here who post about watching hands for a day or a week and deciding that a site is not random because they lost or saw someone make quads four times. "I got dealt seven deuce off-suit three hands in a row, never playing there again!"

Well people's brains are hard-wired to see patterns even if they aren't really there (think Jesus in a slice of toast or shadows forming a face).

In reality there are 52! (factorial, 52*51*50*49 etc.) ways to arrange a deck of cards, which is a number with 68 zeroes, so they can watch hands play out for years and years and see the exact same combinations rarely if ever.

If it's all the same to you and you think only in the short-term, this still won't stop you from thinking it's not something you're doing wrong, it's something wrong with the cards.

Good luck!

DAVID KEHRER · Sep 15, 2020

You have to be aware that you have to play so many games that most players just don,t have the time for all the up and down swings in poker.

B E Z ON ME · Sep 15, 2020

Average skill and average luck isn't gonna put u on the top of the leader board

arenaci · Sep 15, 2020

Oxinthewater said:
A very simple answer would be the house rake - if the house takes 5-10% of the pot, that means the average player will not be winning, they'll be break even against the field and losing to the house. A player has to be very good to beat both the field and the rake, and often that's beyond the average person.

Obviously not in all circumstances though, a microstakes table late Saturday night (western european time) should be beatable for an average person following straightforward but robust strategies.

A very good point.

arenaci · Sep 15, 2020

DougPkrMonsta said:
There is a significant learning curve - it is hard to play winning poker without a serious time investment... learning and practicing, developing discipline, learning how to size bets effectively, developing an understanding of your opponents' tendencies and how to adjust to them.

Obviously this is just the beginning, there are so many poker concepts you must learn to be successful (some of which can only be learned by losing initially), but these are just a few examples of why it is so challenging to win.

Meanwhile poker can be extremely frustrating for new players who think they've got it all figured out, but in reality they are just scratching the surface. It is very common for people to think they're much better than they are, mainly because they aren't even aware of the things they don't know.

A good example:

There are people on here who post about watching hands for a day or a week and deciding that a site is not random because they lost or saw someone make quads four times. "I got dealt seven deuce off-suit three hands in a row, never playing there again!"

Well people's brains are hard-wired to see patterns even if they aren't really there (think Jesus in a slice of toast or shadows forming a face).

In reality there are 52! (factorial, 52*51*50*49 etc.) ways to arrange a deck of cards, which is a number with 68 zeroes, so they can watch hands play out for years and years and see the exact same combinations rarely if ever.

If it's all the same to you and you think only in the short-term, this still won't stop you from thinking it's not something you're doing wrong, it's something wrong with the cards.

Good luck!

You are right. On the surface actually no limit holdem seems very simple game getting 2 cards and making 5 cards with the help of 5 community cards. Even a 7 year old can play it once he knows the rules. But most of the people do not realize the bottom of the iceberg which is hard work, emotional mastery and discipline.

B1731898 · Sep 15, 2020

I've been playing a long time and want people to consider this, only 5% of online poker players are profitable.

arenaci · Sep 15, 2020

B1731898 said:
I've been playing a long time and want people to consider this, only 5% of online poker players are profitable.

How can we get into that 5%?

poliaris747 · Sep 16, 2020

No I do not agree, once there is a probability of winning one major tournament.

B1731898 · Sep 16, 2020

arenaci said:
How can we get into that 5%?

I'm by far a pro, but I have been profitable for years. My advice to those that want to be in the black, keep trying to improve constantly. Try to more patient and even keeled with the disappointing bad beats, and frustrating losses where you should have won. And just like I saw in a commercial once, patience and well-timed aggression. Oh btw, fold, fold, and fold.

schtiuky · Sep 16, 2020

If YOU dont play whit regulariti your Chanses are limited to win substantialy. Just an opinion

JJP · Sep 16, 2020

I would say the biggest block I have seen in players in either hard headedness / refusing to learn or a lack of patience. Both are kind of the death nail for poker. With some will power and enough time I think anyone could break those bad habits

mtmigmike · Sep 16, 2020

In poker, like any profession, you need talent to become a professional. Each person has the ability for a certain type of activity, you cannot be a professional in everything.

canabero · Sep 16, 2020

B1731898 said:
I've been playing a long time and want people to consider this, only 5% of online poker players are profitable.

lol, so i'm into that 5%. i don't earn a lot of money, but profitable means winning more that losing. i never lose money in poker.

FoxMS · Sep 17, 2020

I think everything is relative. Even a beginner can win if he is lucky. But in order to win money regularly, you have to be a sufficiently qualified and experienced player.

Rob Hobson · Sep 17, 2020

Because they are average players. Including myself.

manzanillo53 · Sep 17, 2020

Because they are average and play average. To win over the long haul you need to really learn and step up your game. I know, I am an average player and believe me I am tying to step up my game. Easier said then done.

akgross · Sep 17, 2020

The average player can get lucky at the start of their amateur marathon. For a good result, you need to constantly play and analyze your game. I watched the statistics of the pros from about a hundred MTT games. Bottom line, about seven percent of the ITM hit and three percent of the seven is the final table.

yoshi352000 · Sep 17, 2020

arenaci said:
I hear many times that an average person can not win at poker in the long run. Why?

You need to be in the top 25% to get past rake to become a winner in the long run. You are always playing against some players that have played daily for a decade. You're far behind.

black and · Sep 17, 2020

Probably because players who play poker for fun have to pay for it from time to time. Therefore, I believe that players who play for fun, in the long run and at best, lose nothing and win nothing.

8infinity8 · Sep 17, 2020

An average person, could have the enthusiasm to do the long run, but his willingness to learn will be very less. What defines as an average person is his desire to earn, than learn. What happens in poker is it may take even a couple months without significant winnings to show up. So he may get tilted and eventually quit poker. Instead, realise it's a learning curve. The wil of not giving up, and understanding intermediate and advanced lessons of poker helps.

balo · Sep 17, 2020

10% to 15% of tournament players at micro stakes are profitable or go break even. Which means at least 80% are losers in the long run.
Recreational casino players who play any game for fun can be really bad at poker.

That's why it's still profitable for US poker players who take it more serious, and have the time and patience.

perrypip · Sep 17, 2020

First let's say there was no rake. For every winning professional who makes a living, there have to be enough losing players to pay their salary. The losing players work for a living, play part time and (hopefully) only lose a portion of their salary. So it takes a handful of losing players to pay the salary of the professional.

So in other words, even if there was no rake, I think most players would be losers. But also since poker is a zero sum game the average profit of all the players would be zero. Another was to say that is that the median player would be a net loser and the average would be break even.

But there is rake and its pretty high at lower stakes. So in the real world with rake you get even more net losers.

BlackJesus · Sep 18, 2020

Well, because it is a negative sum game. This factor alone predetermines that the average guy even can't get even, not to speak of winning money. Well, WINNING is another thing. By definition average guys do not win, only the winners, the very few at the top, are winners.

Why The Average Person Can't Win In Poker?

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