Are you like Everybody Else or are you an Outlier?

Flyer35 · Apr 3, 2026

Ever fold 72o and kick yourself afterwards? Honestly, if you're an outlier you're probably ahead. Just for giggles I decided to keep track of the hands that people were going to the river with. I didn't catch them all, but this is very representative. We're a pathetically predictable lot we poker players.

This was a $5+ buy-in tournament with under a hundred entries.

rsparente · Apr 4, 2026

Your idea is clear, but what was the point? Did they win in the end? Are these only winner's hands?

Flyer35 · Apr 5, 2026

rsparente said:
Your idea is clear, but what was the point? Did they win in the end? Are these only winner's hands?

For me it was just an exercise to confirm my suspicion that most everybody plays alike. A note though - I posted this in the online poker forum but the admin/mods moved it here. It only applies to online poker. Live poker, which I rarely play, is likely different.

If one wanted to draw an inference, it would be that 78s type hands can be much more profitable than the odds charts suggest. My next step will be to prove that in actual play.

dannystanks · Apr 5, 2026

I’m definitely an outlier, but not in the way you are trying to show here. I don’t play “like everyone else” because then you become too predictable and can be grouped a certain way, like bluffing too much, bluffing too little, over folding, under folding. We must strive to be the outlier and exploit the predictable’s way of playing. If that means raising my button with 72o because the blinds are playing way too tight, then go for it. Same as in the SB, raise any two when the BB is playing too tight and over folding.

rsparente · Apr 5, 2026

People are reckless in today's games. I guess you are right.

Flyer35 said:
For me it was just an exercise to confirm my suspicion that most everybody plays alike. A note though - I posted this in the online poker forum but the admin/mods moved it here. It only applies to online poker. Live poker, which I rarely play, is likely different.

If one wanted to draw an inference, it would be that 78s type hands can be much more profitable than the odds charts suggest. My next step will be to prove that in actual play.

Roller · Apr 5, 2026

What you’re noticing with people going to the river is one of the biggest truths in poker, most players are way too predictable and way too loose, especially in low–mid stakes games.

austral · Apr 9, 2026

Yes, there is a lot of predictability in poker.
Yes, tracking hands can reveal real patterns.
But winning in poker is about understanding that predictability better than others and using it to your advantage.

And about 7-2 offsuit:
No, a serious player doesn’t regret folding it… because they know the result of a single hand doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is making the right decisions repeatedly, thousands of times.

margmilo44 · Apr 9, 2026

What really separates people isn’t thinking you’re different, it’s being honest about your leaks and actually fixing them. Most players blame variance when things go bad, even though that’s just part of the game and happens to everyone . The ones who improve are the ones who stop making excuses and start reviewing their decisions. Being an outlier isn’t about mindset alone, it’s about consistent work. Studying, adjusting, and making better decisions over time. Otherwise you’re just doing what everybody else is doing and expecting a different result.

EvertonGirl · Apr 9, 2026

If I fold 72o, which I do a lot (unless I'm IP against blinds that are folding close to 100%) and flop comes 777, I'm never kicking myself as it's correct to fold trash.

dompoker · Apr 9, 2026

Yes, I think I am an exception, because several times I have retired with 7-2 and other low cards, at first I regretted seeing that the cards arrived on the flop, now no longer, I prefer to wait for medium or high cards to be able to compete with the others.

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Are you like Everybody Else or are you an Outlier?

Flyer35

Per Ardua ad Astra

rsparente

Rock Star

Flyer35

Per Ardua ad Astra

dannystanks

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rsparente

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Roller

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austral

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margmilo44

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EvertonGirl

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dompoker

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