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fundiver199
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One of the most common beginner mistakes in poker is to chase to much after bad draws. A bad draw might be a hand with only a few outs to improve, but in this post I will focus more about the other aspect, which is implied odds and reverse implied odds, when we complete our draw. For the sake of simplicity I will assume, that all these hands are played in the early phase of MTT with a 40BB effective stack.
Example 1 - Low end of a straightdraw - AKA "dummy end" or "arse end"
MP raise to 2,2BB, CO call, BTN call and we defend our big blind with
getting great pot odds. Flop comes giving us 8 outs to make a straight. However if turn is a , then any hand with a will make a better straight, and someone could have a better straight already with . Finally if turn is a , there will be a 1-liner to a straigth, so some percentage of the time we will only chop the pot, and it will be difficult to get a lot of action from worse hands. We could also improve on a , but that card could easily give someone with a better top pair, and we still lose to overpairs, two pair, sets or a flopped straight. So future betting does not particularly work in our favour, when we improve, and for that reason the best play here is almost always to check and fold. We paid 1,2BB to see the flop, and we do not want to invest any more chips with a draw this bad.
Example 2 - flushdraw on paired board
UTG raise to 2,2BB, and it folds to us in BB, where we make the call with. Flop comes . We check, opponent bet 25% pot, and we call. Pot is now 8,5BB. Turn is , and now the opponent bet 75% pot. We could take an aggressive action here and check-jam, but against most opponents our best play is once again to check-fold. The reason is, we are not getting the right odds to draw to 9 out with just one card more to come, and once again we could be drawing to a second best hand, or be drawing dead already. Maybe the river is , the opponent jam, we call, and he shows us , or .
Example 3 - straightdraw on monotone board
As in example 1 MP raise to 2,2BB, CO call, BTN call and we defend our big blind this time with. Flop comes . We check, MP bet half pot, CO call, BTN fold. Unlike example 1, nobody can have a straight here already, and if the turn is a , only will make a better straight. However the obvious problem is, that someone could have a flush already, and two of our outs are very much tainted. If the turn is or , we still lose to any hand with a random spade in it, and its almost impossible to get value from worse hands. So again our best play is to simply check-fold. Maybe if we had , we could choose to see one more card for the price of half pot, since now we also have a draw to the third best flush, and its a bit less likely, someone has a flush already.
Example 4 - a low flushdraw multiway
As in example 2 UTG raise to 2,2BB, and we are in BB with, where we once again make the call. However this time CO and SB have also called, so we go 4-ways to the flop. Flop comes . We check. UTG bet 65% pot, CO call, and SB call as well. Here the issue is, that the combination of hands, we are up against, could easily have us drawing almost dead. If for instance UTG has , and someone else have , then we are totally screwed here and drawing to a runner-runner two pair, trips or straight, while also needing to avoid another spade. And for that reason this is another situation, where our best play is almost always to simply check-fold.
Example 5 - the not so bad gutshot draw
The above are 4 example of "bad draws", but there are also draws, that are actually better, that they might look at first glance. CO open to 2,2BB, we once again defend our blinds this time with. Flop comes giving us a gutshot to a and a BDFD. We check, and the opponent bet 40% pot. Now if we only count our 4 straight outs, we are not getting good odds to continue. However CO is likely C-betting wide, so quite frequently a or could also improve us to the best hand. Or we could be ahead already, if he is C-betting a hand like , which he absolutely should. If we improve to a straight, we will have the nuts, and if we hit running hearts, we will have a strong and somewhat disguesed flush. So our implied odds are very good, and for that reason we should not fold this hand on the flop to any reasonable bet.
Final words
I hope, the above examples can be a help to new players, who are struggling to find out, when its ok to invest in a draw - or perhaps even commit to it - and when its best to simply get out of the way. The key point is to think ahead about, what might happen on future streets, and how the board connects not just to our hand but also to our opponent(s) range(s).
Example 1 - Low end of a straightdraw - AKA "dummy end" or "arse end"
MP raise to 2,2BB, CO call, BTN call and we defend our big blind with
getting great pot odds. Flop comes giving us 8 outs to make a straight. However if turn is a , then any hand with a will make a better straight, and someone could have a better straight already with . Finally if turn is a , there will be a 1-liner to a straigth, so some percentage of the time we will only chop the pot, and it will be difficult to get a lot of action from worse hands. We could also improve on a , but that card could easily give someone with a better top pair, and we still lose to overpairs, two pair, sets or a flopped straight. So future betting does not particularly work in our favour, when we improve, and for that reason the best play here is almost always to check and fold. We paid 1,2BB to see the flop, and we do not want to invest any more chips with a draw this bad.Example 2 - flushdraw on paired board
UTG raise to 2,2BB, and it folds to us in BB, where we make the call with
. Flop comes . We check, opponent bet 25% pot, and we call. Pot is now 8,5BB. Turn is , and now the opponent bet 75% pot. We could take an aggressive action here and check-jam, but against most opponents our best play is once again to check-fold. The reason is, we are not getting the right odds to draw to 9 out with just one card more to come, and once again we could be drawing to a second best hand, or be drawing dead already. Maybe the river is , the opponent jam, we call, and he shows us , or .Example 3 - straightdraw on monotone board
As in example 1 MP raise to 2,2BB, CO call, BTN call and we defend our big blind this time with
. Flop comes . We check, MP bet half pot, CO call, BTN fold. Unlike example 1, nobody can have a straight here already, and if the turn is a , only will make a better straight. However the obvious problem is, that someone could have a flush already, and two of our outs are very much tainted. If the turn is or , we still lose to any hand with a random spade in it, and its almost impossible to get value from worse hands. So again our best play is to simply check-fold. Maybe if we had , we could choose to see one more card for the price of half pot, since now we also have a draw to the third best flush, and its a bit less likely, someone has a flush already.Example 4 - a low flushdraw multiway
As in example 2 UTG raise to 2,2BB, and we are in BB with
, where we once again make the call. However this time CO and SB have also called, so we go 4-ways to the flop. Flop comes . We check. UTG bet 65% pot, CO call, and SB call as well. Here the issue is, that the combination of hands, we are up against, could easily have us drawing almost dead. If for instance UTG has , and someone else have , then we are totally screwed here and drawing to a runner-runner two pair, trips or straight, while also needing to avoid another spade. And for that reason this is another situation, where our best play is almost always to simply check-fold.Example 5 - the not so bad gutshot draw
The above are 4 example of "bad draws", but there are also draws, that are actually better, that they might look at first glance. CO open to 2,2BB, we once again defend our blinds this time with
. Flop comes giving us a gutshot to a and a BDFD. We check, and the opponent bet 40% pot. Now if we only count our 4 straight outs, we are not getting good odds to continue. However CO is likely C-betting wide, so quite frequently a or could also improve us to the best hand. Or we could be ahead already, if he is C-betting a hand like , which he absolutely should. If we improve to a straight, we will have the nuts, and if we hit running hearts, we will have a strong and somewhat disguesed flush. So our implied odds are very good, and for that reason we should not fold this hand on the flop to any reasonable bet.Final words
I hope, the above examples can be a help to new players, who are struggling to find out, when its ok to invest in a draw - or perhaps even commit to it - and when its best to simply get out of the way. The key point is to think ahead about, what might happen on future streets, and how the board connects not just to our hand but also to our opponent(s) range(s).
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