Equity Denial Discussion

All bets fall into 3 general categories: value, bluffs and equity denial, often overlapping to varying degrees (say semi-bluff). Perhaps the blocker bet for pot control is its own small 4th category.

At this stage if my learning I'm wrapping my head around those spots where betting accomplishes nothing or next to nothing. You know those spots where very little behind you is calling and very little ahead is folding. In these cases betting serves no real purpose and only risks our chips unnecessarily so the best move is to check.

Now this is easy to understand and apply on the river, but on flop and turn we often still need to exercise equity denial. Suppose a set on the turn with a very wet board. Spots like that.

How do you treat these spots? Do you treat them more as value or as bluffs? Is there a default baseline strategy? Do we err on the side of aggression? How much do factors such as position, stacks, pot size, bubble, Villain tendencies dictate straying from baseline?

Worthwile topic Semprini. HU and IP will generally throw out a small bet 25%-30% with my entire range on any flop, for balance this must also include my strongest hands, IE sets, overpairs etc. While C-betting with small underpairs might seem like a bluff, against a wide or normal range it is definately a value bet as you can fold out many non paired hands with strong equity as well as better made hands. Your deuces are likely to be good on most flops but less so as the hand progresses. Betting serves a duel purpose of limiting your opponents bluffing opportunities on later streets as it keeps your strongest hands in your range. Betting a hand like 56s on an AQ8r flop is a bluff as it lags behind most your opponents calling range but is profitable because the vast majority of his folding range is ahead of you.

I'd put these closer to value than bluffs. Four Dogs' underpair example shows why. A call from a flush draw is a worse hand paying you. A fold from a hand with six outs denies that hand its share of the pot. Both results are good, so I don't sweat the label much. What decides bet or check for me is how vulnerable my hand is. The more of his range that has live outs against me, the more I want to bet. Your set on a wet turn is the easy end, I just bet that.

I'd classify these spots as value first, equity denial second. With a made hand on a wet board, your bets can both protect your equity by inducing folds from draws, and extract value from worse hands

My default would be to bet when calling could allow worse hands to realize equity or draws to improve, but not necessarily always fire a big bet when the board is wet. Position, stack depth, SPR, opponent's tendencies, and ICM considerations can greatly impact the sizing and even suggest checking instead of betting

Another consideration is the next street. If I check, it gives the villain a cheap chance to improve and change the board texture. 🤔

Interesting that you both see it as value because value requires hands behind that can call, ideally several.

Remember I said a very wet board. Let's say we have a set of 8s on a 78T flop with 2 hearts. We do not block the hearts. There are all kinds of draws here, a distinct possibility that Villain has more than 9 outs. The only way that I see this as value is if I'm heads-up with a complete fish who will call here with any pair. Otherwise anyone with 2-pair and half a brain will be reluctant here. I have to bet quite large to price out draws and that is very risky when 9x and 9xs are calling and J9 is already in. In that sense my strong non-nut hand theoretically wants pot control, a smaller bet, but the equity denial here needs a large bet. It's not a fun spot.

Now if this flop was less wet, say J87 rainbow, it's much easier to continue for sure.

Semprini said:

Remember I said a very wet board. Let's say we have a set of 8s on a 78T flop with 2 hearts. We do not block the hearts. There are all kinds of draws here, a distinct possibility that Villain has more than 9 outs. The only way that I see this as value is if I'm heads-up with a complete fish who will call here with any pair. Otherwise anyone with 2-pair and half a brain will be reluctant here.

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88 of 78T 2-tone is a clear bet for value. 9X is open ended, TX is top pair, JX is a gutshot usually with overs, and there is a flushdraw. All those hands will continue to a reasonable C-bet, or at least they should in a heads-up pot. Just because we dont have the pure nuts, which in this case would be J9 (or 96), does not mean, we can not bet for value.

We can also easily call a raise, because even when we are behind to a straight, we have a 8,5 out draw (7 on turn and 10 on river), which is somewhere between having an OESD and a flushdraw. Sometimes the board will end up running out with 4 cards to a straight and/or flush, but then we can just check and fold. This does not mean, it was wrong to bet for value on the flop, and its usually very easy to figure out, which cards are good for us (cards pairing the board), and which are bad.