ICM: Would You Fold a Strong Hand Near the Bubble?

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Das991992

Das991992

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You may have a nice hand near the bubble, but is it always worth going all in?

ICM makes it so that the chips you stand to lose can be more valuable than the ones you stand to gain

Say you have AK with 20BB near the bubble, and a big stack pushes on you. Do you call and turn your AK into a monster hand, or do you fold because of ICM?
 
AK is usually a snap call for 20BB even on the bubble. AQ might sometimes be a fold.
 
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When I'm low on chips and I realize that I'm going to win the prize without having to win another hand, I give up even a pair of aces close to the bubble.
 
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I would fold for sure. I like to control the betting based on the cards and the situation. Once you go all-in, there is nothing more you can control. You just have to sit back and let the poker variance take over. Near the bubble, I think this becomes even more important. AK is obviously a very strong hand, but it is still just ace-high before the flop. If a big stack is putting my tournament life at risk, I would rather protect my stack than turn the hand into a situation where everything depends on the next five community cards. I know it can be difficult to fold a hand like AK, especially when you feel like you finally have a hand strong enough to fight back. But I don't think having a strong hand automatically means you have to risk your entire tournament. Sometimes controlling the pot and waiting for a better spot is more important than trying to win a huge pot. Once all the chips are in the middle, your decisions are basically over. From that point on, you are just hoping the cards go your way. I prefer to keep making decisions for as long as possible and avoid giving variance complete control of my tournament.
 
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fundiver199 said:
AK is usually a snap call for 20BB even on the bubble. AQ might sometimes be a fold.
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That makes sense. I’d probably be much more comfortable calling with AK too, while AQ feels like a much tougher decision when the bubble pressure is high.
 
pltelles said:
When I'm low on chips and I realize that I'm going to win the prize without having to win another hand, I give up even a pair of aces close to the bubble.
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That’s interesting, especially folding even aces when you know the prize is basically secured. I can see how protecting the stack changes the value of a strong hand near the bubble.
 
fzap1983 said:
I would fold for sure. I like to control the betting based on the cards and the situation. Once you go all-in, there is nothing more you can control. You just have to sit back and let the poker variance take over. Near the bubble, I think this becomes even more important. AK is obviously a very strong hand, but it is still just ace-high before the flop. If a big stack is putting my tournament life at risk, I would rather protect my stack than turn the hand into a situation where everything depends on the next five community cards. I know it can be difficult to fold a hand like AK, especially when you feel like you finally have a hand strong enough to fight back. But I don't think having a strong hand automatically means you have to risk your entire tournament. Sometimes controlling the pot and waiting for a better spot is more important than trying to win a huge pot. Once all the chips are in the middle, your decisions are basically over. From that point on, you are just hoping the cards go your way. I prefer to keep making decisions for as long as possible and avoid giving variance complete control of my tournament.
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I like your point about keeping some control instead of letting the whole tournament come down to five community cards. AK feels so strong preflop that folding it near the bubble definitely takes discipline.
 
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