The Key to Playing Draws (Day 10 Course Discussion)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Debi
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Interesting lesson. The hand analyses were very helpful.

BetterThanAvgButNotByMuch said:
I don't like the AJ example before the review questions, it makes little sense to me to toss your money in there when you have a lot more poker to play and you're going on a coin toss or less when you don't need too.
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Glad to see I'm not the only one. Judging from everyone's stacks sizes around 1500 chips it would seem this game hasn't been running long and is going to end right away for us.

There were a lot of outs though and I do see Collin's point too. Not too much seems to be black and white in poker.
 
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Day 10 finished.

Thank you for this course, I find it very essential to become a pro player.

Quiz answers :

1. We have 12 outs, 9 to hitting flush and 4 for straight ( without counting 7 of club 2 times ).

2. We have 24% to hit our draw ( 12 outs / 50 cards ), if we apply rule of 2 and 4 we find 12 outs × 2 = 24%

3. We should raise at turn cause we have fold equity and possibility to win the pot if our villain calls.
 
Hi, thanks for the course, just got around to finishing it today o/
Still many leaks to fix ^^
If my math isnt off, the draw chart has a mistake in the line of the probability to turn a set into a full house.
I get an additional 3 outs for whatever turn card there is, not completing the full or the quads. In this situation I have 21.7% on the turn 😉
And subsequentially a higher probability combined on turn and river.
 
Polytarp said:
This video has taken top spot for me now because you have shown what to do and why in circumstances which require some appropriate navigation. As I was playing another 888 free roll I had the rare occurrence of getting quads pre-flop during the video presentation. I tried to illustrate how I attempted to maximize their value at a tight table. I initially put in a mini-bet which was called pre-flop but no-one was biting afterwards so I put in a small bet after the river to make it look like a steal and won a few chips. Too much and he would have folded, too little and it would not have mattered so I had to price this person out and it worked by placing myself in his position and how he perceived my betting patterns.
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I've been through a situation like this. I lost everything because I thought it was a bluff. hahahaha
 
onecardsteve said:
To me the 4-2 Rule comes into play first to determine an approx % to hit , but also should we also look at the total cards remaining against our outs. Eg
your hole cards + board at Turn , = 6 cards, so say a flush draw (9*2=18%)
46 remaining cards - 9 for the draw or 46-9 = 35 which is about 4:1 to hit
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Interesting. It's a pretty solid line of reasoning.
 
That's right, another wonderful class, thanks Collin!! And come on, play draws aggressively!!!


10/30.
 
I tend to shy away from playing draws. I always want to have the Ace if playing a flush draw, and want to have the nut straight draw. Drawing for the prospect of hitting a second best hand is not very appealing.
The main thing that I took away from this lesson was the thought process and the way that Collin presented it. I realized that I need to be thinking about outs more than I currently do.
 
12 outs
26%
I would bet pot size on the turn of 77
I assume that villain limp on button than check back on the flop.
Check / call on the river
 
Hi, thanks for the course day 10.
My answer to the quiz.
1. We have 12 outs: 9 to get draws and 3 (7) to get straight.
2. According to the ebook we have 26.1%.
3. We should c-bet because the villain is limping.
 
Day 10 complete, When you learn to read these odds, you can make more informed decisions. Thanks for this lesson!
 
Great class! It helped me understand how to play hands that I'm normally afraid to play: connectors, low pairs, and suited cards!
 
The theory of Implied Odds is based on estimating how much money is expected to be won if the hand is completed. How is this estimation of 'likely amount' realistically performed, given that it largely depends on whether the opponent will call on future streets (the turn and river) if we hit our draw
 
Its not an exact science, but you cant win money, which the opponent dont have, so you can calculate the maximum. And other than this its really the idea, if future betting work in our favour or not, so we cant take about implied odd without also talking about reverse implied odds. And this relate to the idea of good vs. bad draws. An example of a bad draw is having :qs4::5s4: on :kh4::jh4::10d4:. Here we have 8 outs to a straight, but if we make our hand, there is a decent chance, we only win half the pot, since the opponent could have a hand like :ks4::qh4: or :qc4::10c4:. And it gets even worse, because the opponent could also have :as4::qd4:, in which case :9c4: will only give us the second best straight. Or he could have :ah4::4h4: in which case :9h4: will make him a flush. And because any hand with a :qh4: will have a straight, its also difficult to get worse hands to put a lot of money into the pot. So this is a situation, where future betting does not particularly work in our favour, and especially in a multiway pot we might elect to simply check-fold the flop and save our money for a better spot.
 
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Hello Poker fans,

Would you believe I double-counted the 7 for the flush and the straight - rookie mistake!

I still got the percentage correct and betting the river. My bet size was a pot bet since I wanted to increase my fold equity.

Knowing when to play draws is an important topic and I try to be alert enough to charge villain the maximum to see them. The funny part is that some villains still try to bet the missed draw on the large side to induce a fold - which I happily call if the chip situation allows 😀

A fun topic here.

See you at the tables.
 
Day 10 involves applying the skills and tools from previous lessons. I like that the solutions Colin proposes in the examples align with my own thinking. Answers regarding the squeeze: 1. 12 outs (9 for the flush and 4 for the straight). 2. 25%. 3. A bet of two-thirds of the pot; we have very good odds.
 
I found this lesson really useful because I used to think that having a draw usually meant that I should try to see the next card as cheaply as possible. Now I understand that the situation is more important than the draw itself.


Position, pot odds, stack sizes and the way my opponent is playing can all change whether it is better to play a draw aggressively or passively.


One thing I would like to understand better is how to decide when aggression is actually better than taking a cheaper card. Is there a particular factor that should have the most weight when making that decision?
 
Day 10 taught good lesson.

Semi-bluffing with draws gives you two ways to win: forcing your opponent to fold immediately or hitting your draw for a large pot.
Attack weakness when opponents check behind, but switch to passive play if you lack fold equity or face an opponent with an extremely strong range.
Hands with both a draw and decent showdown value should be played more passively, as they can still win at showdown unimproved.
 
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