Probability

I have a question what is the probability of hitting a set on the flop??? Because you can win a big pot!!

With a pair in the hole, there are two (2) cards left in the deck that match your pocket pair. Either would make a set on the flop (3 cards), so the probability would be 2X3=6 times on 50 cards left which is 6/50=12%.

Someone said that with a poker pair, there is always a reason to see a flop...

I can't give you exact numbers, but a good rule of thumb is to aim for 1 in 8-9 hands. For example, calling someone's 3-bet with a pair in hopes of hitting a set should only be done if you win at least 8 times as many chips, so as not to mathematically drive yourself into negative expectation. There are, of course, exceptions to this rule, but for the other 95 hands out of 100, you can safely apply the Rule of 8.

Hello how to calculate the probability of hitting a set on the flop with a pair on your hands!!!

So when you have a pair in your hand, there are 2 cards out of the 50 that will give you a set. With three cards dealt, the changes of you hitting on the first card of the flop is roughly 4% - when you multiply that over three cards, you get odds just under 12% of hitting a set.

About one in eight flops, in another words.

The chance of a card hitting the board is 2%, meaning that when you have two outs, your chances of making a three-of-a-kind by the river are approximately 12%.

Even if a player knows outs, pot odds and probabilities by heart, the situation at the table changes quickly and decisions have to be made in a split second. I find it incredible that one can calculate so quickly. I make my decisions based partly on intuition, although there is some theoretical understanding behind it. I should practice calculating the most common situations to an automatic level so that I can recall them even in a hurry, but I haven't had enough enthusiasm for it yet.

In game you don't calculate, you just know you will flop a set 1 time in 8 (12% chance).

You usually want better implied odds than 8:1 on someone's stack if you are calling small pairs to set mine - this allows for the times you get coolered set over set or villain just doesn't pay you off with his whole stack. i.e. don't set mine with relatively short stacks.

If you really want to calculate from scratch you can do it like this:

Calculate how often your pair will miss each card on the flop..
48 cards out of the remaining 50 (we remove the 2 cards in your hand from the 52 in the deck) miss your pair for the 1st flop card
47 cards out of the remaining 49 miss your pair for the 2nd flop card
46 cards out of the remaining 48 miss your pair for the 3rd flop card

We then multiply these probabilities together to see how often your pair misses all 3 flop cards:

48/50 x 47/49 x 46/48 = 0.88..

We want the opposite of this i.e. how often we don't miss all 3, so we take the compliment:

1-0.88 = 0.12 = 12% = 1 time 8