What % Do You Win With AA?

  • Thread starter Thread starter CheezeWiz
  • Start date Start date
CheezeWiz

CheezeWiz

Legend
Bronze Level
Awards
13
Poker Chips
293
Casino Coins
0
odds say AA should win 85% of hands heads-up vs a single opponent pre-flop.

Somewhat surprisingly though your odds of winning heads-up vs. 2-7 off are only 88.2%.

I tend to hear a lot of comments regarding ... I do not do well with AA... ok, what hand would you rather have? lol...🙄 Granted, it is not a guaranteed winner, but what hand is?

I am showing that in the last 164 times that I have had AA, I have won 143 (87.2%). So pretty much inline with expectations, but I would also say I definitely do not always launch to isolate against 1 or 0 players (perhaps I should, but just saying I have not).

Interested to hear what others have to say ... about AA...

Best of Luck at The Tables All,

CheezeWiz
 
Reply
  • Like
Reactions: Matt_Burns88, Vallet, KozakAlex and 3 others
I have never dived into that stat, but in my PokerStars cash game database I have stored more than 300k hands. And over this sample AA is by far my biggest winner at 1227 BB/100. KK is a distant second at 654 BB/100, and for comparison AKo is only 103BB/100. So yeah. When you hear people complain, that their aces always get cracked, its typically over a very small sample, or its the result of selective memory 🙂
 
Reply
  • Like
Reactions: alien666dj and CheezeWiz
I think we expect to win every time and get a rude awakingif does happen
about15% of the time AA gets cracked so that the few times we remember
 
The last 3 main event that I played I got out with Aces first. I honestly wanna believe that 80%, but I was beaten by Queens twice and a 99. Smaller fields its working, thats probably only my curse. 😀
 
Nice work Cheeze on analyzing this question with actual data! I think your 87% makes a lot of sense. Sometimes you'll be in multi-way pots where AA has much less equity than ~85%, but sometimes pre-flop aggression will take it down early. So on balance if it's an overall winrate with AA instead of just at showdown, something in the mid-upper 80's sounds solid.
 
Reply
  • Like
Reactions: fundiver199, alien666dj and CheezeWiz
The thing is when you lose with aces you tend to lose a lot, because you just put a lot of money on your pair of aces but someone got two pair or better and he's getting value out of you.

OTOH many of your wins with aces are everyone folding out because they had nothing or a small pair, or maybe someone giving you value to the river with a bigger pair. These pots tend to be smaller.

I think because of this effect people tend to remember it more when their aces are cracked.
 
I don't have software to analyze my games, so I base my statistics on what I remember and the impressions I have of the games.

I have the impression that my AAs are not being profitable properly, it is common for players to fold before I even act, when I am playing from the blinds, however much I keep an equal game when I have a strong hand or a weak hand, to try to hinder reading the villains, it seems to me that my return when I have AA is low, I prefer to play low pairs or suited or connected hands, when I manage to complete a hand I usually have a higher return than when I hold AA preflop, but I say this by my impressions , without any software analyzing my history.
 
Reply
  • Like
Reactions: andrezito38
I think people complain a lot when it comes to losing with AA because they feel like they were entitled the win with them, as they are the best starting hand possible, so if they come across a bad beat they will remember it way more. Also it's quite rare to get AA so it feels even worse when your aces get cracked.
But statistically speaking, I have no doubt about the AA winrate being over 80%.
 
CheezeWiz said:
Odds say AA should win 85% of hands heads-up vs a single opponent pre-flop.

Somewhat surprisingly though your odds of winning heads-up vs. 2-7 off are only 88.2%.

I tend to hear a lot of comments regarding ... I do not do well with AA... ok, what hand would you rather have? lol...🙄 Granted, it is not a guaranteed winner, but what hand is?

I am showing that in the last 164 times that I have had AA, I have won 143 (87.2%). So pretty much inline with expectations, but I would also say I definitely do not always launch to isolate against 1 or 0 players (perhaps I should, but just saying I have not).

Interested to hear what others have to say ... about AA...

Best of Luck at The Tables All,

CheezeWiz
Click to expand...



To win with A, you need to raise a lot on the preflop. This will allow you to get rid of a large number of opponents on the flop. It's less likely that someone will have a straight, two pairs, a flash, And so on. This way you can increase your chances of winning.
 
I View It As A Delicate Balance...

KozakAlex said:
To win with A, you need to raise a lot on the preflop. This will allow you to get rid of a large number of opponents on the flop. It's less likely that someone will have a straight, two pairs, a flash, And so on. This way you can increase your chances of winning.
Click to expand...

I agree, you can increase your % of winning with AA by aggressively betting pre-flop, but I think you have to balance your pre-flop aggression with chip gain maximization, so... lol... yes, there are times when you are in early position and perhaps only call or min raise in order to attempt to increase the pot with callers, hoping to get re-raised by an aggressive player and that does not happen... BUMMER! and you get beat with BS flopped two pair, or a set, or a flush, etc.

But on the other side of the spectrum, when you are early position with AA and you raise 3-5x BB and everyone folds... also BUMMER, because you got virtually nothing out of great hole cards.

Obviously it is much easier if you are on the button or in the blinds and can see the action in front of you and make an assessment of the appropriate level of aggression from there.

Thank You for the responses all, and I also agree with the comments from a few that there tends to be a sense of "Win Entitlement" associated with being dealt AA and if it loses, something is up? Perhaps Poker Gods do not like me? Perhaps Site Rigged? Perhaps AA just Bad Luck for me? (I editorialized a bit on those scenarios, so forgive me, but generally what folks tend to say.)

My guess is if you are not finding the expected win % or profit % with AA maybe you are not finding the right raise size based on table position and pot size. It is a delicate balance (I think?)!

I wish I had a stat like FunDiver199 regarding profitability with AA but I do not think I have that stat in the Intertops database. Given my tendency is to not "over cook it too early / attempt to build pot" and that my win% has held-up to slightly above expectations, I think I am ok on that, but wish I new exactly.

Best of Luck at The Tables All!

CheezeWiz
 
Reply
  • Like
Reactions: alien666dj
You have excellent stats with the AA hand to be honest. This means a competent and correct hand draw. Many players would like to see the same thing in their statistics. I watched the $ 5200 EPT Online Main Event yesterday. A big stack with AA pushes all the chips against another big stack with AK preflop on the final table. AA crashes because there is already a flush on the flop. He might have got off with less losses if he hadn't been all in preflop. People believe that AA should always win and overestimate the hand, not feeling that they are behind. Your analysis is good work, good statistics.
 
Reply
  • Like
Reactions: CheezeWiz
Vallet said:
A big stack with AA pushes all the chips against another big stack with AK preflop on the final table. AA crashes because there is already a flush on the flop. He might have got off with less losses if he hadn't been all in preflop.
Click to expand...

Sure but he would also have won less all those times, where AK miss the flop and give up. If you get your chips in with 90% equity, its really difficult to see, how the hand could have been played better. Anything else is results oriented thinking 🙂
 
Collin Moshman said:
I think your 87% makes a lot of sense. Sometimes you'll be in multi-way pots where AA has much less equity than ~85%, but sometimes pre-flop aggression will take it down early.
Click to expand...

And postflop aggression. With AA we typically do a lot of betting on the flop and turn, and when our opponents fold to those bets, they are usually giving up equity. The flip side of that is, that those 13% of pots, we lose, will tend to be larger on average than those 87%, we win.
 
I think that's the problem with some people, they think if they got Aces they win 100% of the time. My Aces got cracked multipes times but I don't blame anybody for it. That's poker!
 
over a sample size of roughly 160k hands - my AA are winning about 76% of the time. This is only if they went to showdown and also accounts for the times previous where i overplayed AAs like many others do. Its pretty safe to say AAs should be winning 80-85% of the time overall. Even with lord knows how many early samples I have with horrid play - 76% is close to being on target.
 
CheezeWiz said:
Odds say AA should win 85% of hands heads-up vs a single opponent pre-flop.

Somewhat surprisingly though your odds of winning heads-up vs. 2-7 off are only 88.2%.

I tend to hear a lot of comments regarding ... I do not do well with AA... ok, what hand would you rather have? lol...🙄 Granted, it is not a guaranteed winner, but what hand is?

I am showing that in the last 164 times that I have had AA, I have won 143 (87.2%). So pretty much inline with expectations, but I would also say I definitely do not always launch to isolate against 1 or 0 players (perhaps I should, but just saying I have not).

Interested to hear what others have to say ... about AA...

Best of Luck at The Tables All,

CheezeWiz
Click to expand...

Interesting question/post.

Like you say, no hand is infallible and AA is no exception. The art is maximising profit when AA remains the best hand and limiting your losses when it does. There is nothing you can do when you get it all in pre-flop, but the amount of hands I see when deep stacked and it is clear the opponent has hit a big hand and the player with AA can't lay it down and then bemoan their bad luck after the lose their entire stack.
 
Reply
  • Like
Reactions: fundiver199
Well you could also ask the following questions ;
How many did you win with AA
When you preflop raise and nobody call or 3bets --> almost nothing
In what position can it be played with the most value?
How big is the 3-bet you place?
 
Jon Poker said:
over a sample size of roughly 160k hands - my AA are winning about 76% of the time. This is only if they went to showdown and also accounts for the times previous where i overplayed AAs like many others do. Its pretty safe to say AAs should be winning 80-85% of the time overall. Even with lord knows how many early samples I have with horrid play - 76% is close to being on target.
Click to expand...

Its natural, that AA will win a lower percentage of the time, if we go to showdown. This is because, we usually bet the hand for value, and when we do so, we contort our opponents range, so that in the end only the strongest part of it is left. However if we are good 76% of the time when called on the river, we are still solidly valuebetting.
 
Reply
  • Like
Reactions: Jon Poker, Poker Orifice, CheezeWiz and 1 other person
fundiver199 said:
Its natural, that AA will win a lower percentage of the time, if we go to showdown. This is because, we usually bet the hand for value, and when we do so, we contort our opponents range, so that in the end only the strongest part of it is left. However if we are good 76% of the time when called on the river, we are still solidly valuebetting.
Click to expand...


Well said, fundiver—this is exactly it! 🙂
 
The problem with AA is not how often you win but how much you loose. Loosing your whole stack with AA is a common thing from overplaying them. AA is just a pair unless you hit something on the board.
 
Back
Top