What are the odds, of making Quads by the river with Pocket Pair?
Okay, so basically, your saying its about 1 in 50 I make quads by the turn? With a pocket pair? That can't be right.....I need the 1/10 type not percents. 0.245% on flop equates to about what? 1 in 400 which actually, seems correct. I can't see that by adding one more card (the turn) it becomes 1 in 50 no way.....
It may be surprising, but that is the probability of drawing to 1 out on the turn (46:1) and the river (45:1). It is the same probability of completing a straight flush draw as well.
The probabilities that Shaetano posted above are correct.
Think of it this way. To make quads...
On the flop you are trying to draw 2 cards out of 50 and then 1 card out of 49 OR 2 cards out of 50 and then 1 card out of 48 OR 2 cards out of 49 and then 1 card out of 48.
On the Turn you are trying to draw just 1 card out of 47 (not that hard).
On the River you are trying to draw 1 card out of 46 (only a little worse than trying to get a powerball match 🙂 )
The probabilities that Shaetano posted above are correct.
Think of it this way. To make quads...
On the flop you are trying to draw 2 cards out of 50 and then 1 card out of 49 OR 2 cards out of 50 and then 1 card out of 48 OR 2 cards out of 49 and then 1 card out of 48.
On the Turn you are trying to draw just 1 card out of 47 (not that hard).
On the River you are trying to draw 1 card out of 46 (only a little worse than trying to get a powerball match 🙂 )
Because converting is hard?Aaron Soto said:
Odds of flopping quads:
0.245% or 407:1
Odds of turning quads after having flopped a set:
2.128% or 46:1
Odds of rivering quads after making a set on either the flop or turn:
2.174% or 45:1
Odds of making quads on EITHER the flop, turn or river:
0.816% or 122.5:1
Incorrect.Shaetano said:
I hope my wording will be clear. 😛
You subtract 1 from the 408.1633 to get the accurate number. It happens once in 408 hands, so the odds of it happening are 407:1.
Odds of 25% are 3:1, not 4:1 (as that would be 20%). 😉
It'll happen 25% of the time, or once in 4, but the odds are 3:1.
So it's ((100 / odds %) - 1) : 1.
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Shaetano said:
This should read:
Complete on Turn: 2.128%, unless you dont have a set (which occurs 88.2%) in which case your odds are 0%
So the turn probability is actually around .25%.
And the River probability is also misleading.
Aceplayer55 said:
Fair enough. It's true that the odds of making quads only improve significantly if you flop a set.
These are the odds of getting quads (when dealt a pocket pair) (or a straight flush with two suited and connected cards) WITHOUT assuming that you flopped a set.
*edit* Note that the odds for the turn include quads made on the flop, and the odds for the river include quads made on the flop and the turn. Later today if I have time I'll figure out the odds of making these hands EXACTLY on the turn and river.
on Flop: 0.145 (407.33:1)
by Turn: 0.490 (203.17:1)
by River: 0.816 (121.50:1)
My bad for misinterpreting the original question.
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Its nice to know such little facts, but I guess you are not going to play for those kind of things.
When playing on pokerstars there are people wo do, and in general you can take their money without any problem, but when you lose from them the rage is to big to describe.
When playing on pokerstars there are people wo do, and in general you can take their money without any problem, but when you lose from them the rage is to big to describe.
I made a typo in my last response so I'll post the odds again here (sorry for the confusion)
on Flop 0.245 (407.33:1) (changed from the 0.145 typo)
by Turn 0.490 (203.17:1)
by River 0.816 (121.50:1)
If we subtract the quads made on previous streets then we will get the odds of hitting quads EXACTLY on those streets.
on Flop 0.245 (407.33:1)
on Turn 0.245 (407.33:1)
on River 0.327 (305.25:1)
on Flop 0.245 (407.33:1) (changed from the 0.145 typo)
by Turn 0.490 (203.17:1)
by River 0.816 (121.50:1)
If we subtract the quads made on previous streets then we will get the odds of hitting quads EXACTLY on those streets.
on Flop 0.245 (407.33:1)
on Turn 0.245 (407.33:1)
on River 0.327 (305.25:1)
All the other answers are based on false Data mostly..
These odds are based on similar video poker data not real live poker ,or even online .The reason for this is sometimes,or a lot of times you have 0% whereas video poker it's always the same there are no hole cards and no burn cards which influence the unknown variables of quads and all hands in holdem poker by a lot!! Sometimes to hit the quads the card you need is burned,or usually folded or in play therefore it's not predictable at all. Same goes for a set it may be 1/8 chance to flop it or sometimes based on a 9 ring game and 3 burn cards could be 0% it's always fluctuates and this goes for flush draws,and all draws. In fact if you knew the remaining 31 cards in the deck vs other players hands you would always know what to do right? Say you got A/7 of spades in a limit game and you knew your up against KA off AQ off and jj but you somehow magically could see the remaining 31 cards and the burns then you would continue even after the flop. For instance say the flop came 9-A-8 with 2 spades vs the previous match ups I described in a good size pot,but you knew the remaining cards contained 3 sevens-2 aces and 2 eights, and to go with that the full match up of spades in the deck vs AK this is a huge beni factor for you as you got many cards to fill up,chop and 9 outs to flush out in your spade draw. Of course you never actually know this this is why Holdem poker is an incomplete data game there is no good cards in holdem especially limit holdem. As I said before you never know what could occur! Say you have kk vs 10-j and 67 with the remaining cards to be seen as 89-9 a load of 7's 10's and 2 fives all within that spectrum of the top of the deck,what makes matters worse even in the 31 random deck scenario vs these types of hands sometimes your kings aren't even in there and no running pairs to give you a counterfeit 2 pair either so your essentially dead in the water vs probable 2 pair flops like 8-10-4 -Q-5-10 etc.. It doesn't mean your one pair won't be gold it just means your hoping to hold up with no chance of improving. So to hit Quads on a flopped set of 99 all the stars have to line up right just the even have the true odds to make it in that scenario. Iv'e seen your previous posts and you enjoy 3/6 limit and play a lot you check on my post on advanced 3/6 theory gl man.
These odds are based on similar video poker data not real live poker ,or even online .The reason for this is sometimes,or a lot of times you have 0% whereas video poker it's always the same there are no hole cards and no burn cards which influence the unknown variables of quads and all hands in holdem poker by a lot!! Sometimes to hit the quads the card you need is burned,or usually folded or in play therefore it's not predictable at all. Same goes for a set it may be 1/8 chance to flop it or sometimes based on a 9 ring game and 3 burn cards could be 0% it's always fluctuates and this goes for flush draws,and all draws. In fact if you knew the remaining 31 cards in the deck vs other players hands you would always know what to do right? Say you got A/7 of spades in a limit game and you knew your up against KA off AQ off and jj but you somehow magically could see the remaining 31 cards and the burns then you would continue even after the flop. For instance say the flop came 9-A-8 with 2 spades vs the previous match ups I described in a good size pot,but you knew the remaining cards contained 3 sevens-2 aces and 2 eights, and to go with that the full match up of spades in the deck vs AK this is a huge beni factor for you as you got many cards to fill up,chop and 9 outs to flush out in your spade draw. Of course you never actually know this this is why Holdem poker is an incomplete data game there is no good cards in holdem especially limit holdem. As I said before you never know what could occur! Say you have kk vs 10-j and 67 with the remaining cards to be seen as 89-9 a load of 7's 10's and 2 fives all within that spectrum of the top of the deck,what makes matters worse even in the 31 random deck scenario vs these types of hands sometimes your kings aren't even in there and no running pairs to give you a counterfeit 2 pair either so your essentially dead in the water vs probable 2 pair flops like 8-10-4 -Q-5-10 etc.. It doesn't mean your one pair won't be gold it just means your hoping to hold up with no chance of improving. So to hit Quads on a flopped set of 99 all the stars have to line up right just the even have the true odds to make it in that scenario. Iv'e seen your previous posts and you enjoy 3/6 limit and play a lot you check on my post on advanced 3/6 theory gl man.
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