When Does Luck Stop Being Luck?

hung4260396

hung4260396

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  • #1
One thing I've found interesting about poker is that a good decision can still produce a bad result, while a bad decision can sometimes produce a great result.

This can make it difficult to judge our own play. If a decision works, we may assume it was correct, and if it fails, we may immediately think we made a mistake.

I think separating the quality of the decision from the outcome is one of the hardest things to learn. Looking back at a hand, it seems more useful to ask whether the reasoning was sound rather than simply whether we won or lost.

I'm curious how other players deal with this. When reviewing your own hands, do you focus more on the final result or on whether the decision itself was reasonable with the information available at the time?
 
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Das991992

Das991992

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  • #2
I think luck is a much bigger factor over a small sample size.
As the number of hands grows, skill and decision-making start to show more clearly.
You can’t eliminate luck in poker, but you can make sure your decisions are profitable long term.
 
fzap1983

fzap1983

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  • #3
You are right. We need to know how to separate a good or bad decision from a good or bad result, because there are things we simply cannot control. Sometimes, after we make a decision, luck comes into play. We can make a good decision, but the cards may not cooperate with it. That is why the analysis should be based on the decision we made, not on the result that came from that decision. A good decision can lead to a bad result, and a bad decision can sometimes lead to a good result. What matters is whether the decision was correct based on the information and probabilities we had at the time.
 
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