I found a way to end my doubts about online poker

Hello. I feel the same way about higher banks and the weird wins I see by them. Software player elimination?

I Live Poker said:

Hello everyone! For those who do not know me, I am Vitor Hugo and I am generally very controversial in my posts. During the time that I have participated in cardschat I have always raised very controversial and delicate issues, however my doubts about online poker have hindered my evolution as if I had a mental barrier.
It was then that I had this idea: Since yesterday I started recording my whole game, for study purposes and also for comparison with the real equity of the game (see if what happens at the online tables is really mathematical)
From this weekend I will start posting everything on my youtube channel showing the good and bad moments. Also some victories if poker allows, this will serve for the purposes of registration and also for comparison as I mentioned above in order to show what really happens.

Hug to everyone!

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Dear poker buddy, what is your YouTube channel? I was really surprised to see if your maths works, and I would like to see the evolution of your progress.

jesusali1 said:

Dear poker buddy, what is your YouTube channel? I was really surprised to see if your maths works, and I would like to see the evolution of your progress.

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Hello my friend! my channel is PokerAmaS, but actually I'm still getting a bigger sample to be trustworthy, I haven't done any video related to that yet and when I do it will be in Portuguese but maybe subtitles.
For now I'm just sorting out the hands where the equity was in my favor and didn't happen, I'm also going to do the same with the equity that was against me and ended up turning in my favor. As for hands with equity up to 55/45, I will consider flip coin and also win flips and loss flips.
So far I've only managed 5K hands and it's kind of funny because out of all those hands only 66 hands didn't generate equity, ie 1.32%. I also averaged the actions that were in my favor 64.06%, "adding all the actions and dividing by the number of hands"
In other words, the accepted margin would be up to 35.94%. The funniest thing is that I separated these hands in a period of supposed bad luck...

Now imagine in a period when I'm lucky...
But there is another issue of equity that inverts in favor, I have already separated some hands and I realized that the number is higher, but as I said, there are few hands and it takes work, maybe I will take a while..

I Live Poker said:

yes very special! crowded with calling stations and fishs.

At least I realize that in micro limits and Freerolls. But they say that higher limits the gameplay improves!

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It definitely does improve cause I have played a $220 buy-in and it no where near has the donks and shoves the free rolls have. But I did see a few players that I made notes on that shoved preflop with any pocket pair. I don’t know if it’s just me or the players played better but most of the time I had an idea what the guys were holding based on their preflop raise or bets. And I didn’t see all the bad beats I see in freerolls, it was almost as if the software was different, call me crazy but it felt more like live poker play. Unless it was people were just not playing so many hands that changed it so much. Idk.

BlackIce said:

It definitely does improve cause I have played a $220 buy-in and it no where near has the donks and shoves the free rolls have. But I did see a few players that I made notes on that shoved preflop with any pocket pair. I don’t know if it’s just me or the players played better but most of the time I had an idea what the guys were holding based on their preflop raise or bets. And I didn’t see all the bad beats I see in freerolls, it was almost as if the software was different, call me crazy but it felt more like live poker play. Unless it was people were just not playing so many hands that changed it so much. Idk.

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because it's expensive, I've also played some highs like $630/2.5M and it really is quite different. it seems that the deck punishes fish at high limits and at micros the other way around. I do well on the 630! my biggest win in 75th/5K+ players

I usually only watch professional games. Therefore, I do not plan to watch your work. But I'm glad for you, because you've found something to do for the weekend. poker game analysis is always interesting and I think it will be useful for many.

Peace of mind

I only fear this will keep you busy for a while. Never concluding one way or another. You can sayI should of could of but chances are you would do the same. Maybe eliminating the AIPF unless you have top premium hands.

If you looking for clarity it will be difficult. If your opinion is that something's wrong then you will be shunned as a rig tard. Still remaining that you can't truly prove random other than back to back to back anomalies. That in theory can be explained as a possibility. My back to back quads sixes. I thought that would be an easy thing to point out. But in the random it's possibly but going by the odds of it happening is remarkable.

Truth is it's damn near impossible to confirm randomness. How hard is it to program the appearance of something you truly can't. It's like looking into a telescope at what appears to be a black hole. How deep it is and how strong the pull is can only be guessed but never known.

Instead let it go. Play because you enjoy it. Give up on the know unknown. Stay thirsty my friend.

good luck to you
is it possible to tranlate in english so that we all can understand

Is online poker random?
- No.
Is online poker rigged?
- No.

For me, there are huge difference between these two. Its not rigged, cause people are not favoursied by the sites. Its not random, because there are several factors, if which you can understand and adapt to your game, you will be luckier.

BlackIce said:

It definitely does improve cause I have played a $220 buy-in and it no where near has the donks and shoves the free rolls have. But I did see a few players that I made notes on that shoved preflop with any pocket pair. I don’t know if it’s just me or the players played better but most of the time I had an idea what the guys were holding based on their preflop raise or bets. And I didn’t see all the bad beats I see in freerolls, it was almost as if the software was different, call me crazy but it felt more like live poker play. Unless it was people were just not playing so many hands that changed it so much. Idk.

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I Live Poker said:

because it's expensive, I've also played some highs like $630/2.5M and it really is quite different. it seems that the deck punishes fish at high limits and at micros the other way around. I do well on the 630! my biggest win in 75th/5K+ players

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As you will not have to see way to much multiway parties, and a better understading about the game itself, I can say very brave here, that there could be players, who can feeling themselves more comfortable on higher levels.
Even if my budget most of the times not let me to do, I'm always trying to play some big tourneys to actually being able to learn deeper and forcing myself to bring out a game, which can stand out the of competitors at those low or high buy-ins. Good luck guys..

still not rigged

I Live Poker said:

Hello everyone! For those who do not know me, I am Vitor Hugo and I am generally very controversial in my posts. During the time that I have participated in cardschat I have always raised very controversial and delicate issues, however my doubts about online poker have hindered my evolution as if I had a mental barrier.
It was then that I had this idea: Since yesterday I started recording my whole game, for study purposes and also for comparison with the real equity of the game (see if what happens at the online tables is really mathematical)
From this weekend I will start posting everything on my youtube channel showing the good and bad moments. Also some victories if poker allows, this will serve for the purposes of registration and also for comparison as I mentioned above in order to show what really happens.

Hug to everyone!

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I'm playing for 1 e half year now, and had had many doubts about mathematical accuracy of online poker.

I think that there is a lot of biases on our thinking that make us pay much more attention to the times that we lost that flip coin, and we don't realize how many other flip coins we had won.

Good idea, maybe I'll come by and watch your game from time to time)

TeUnit said:

still not rigged

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Mabe, mabe not

YuriDitz said:

Good idea, maybe I'll come by and watch your game from time to time)

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this takes a long time i tried to do it the first time i was only able to survey 1k situations. To do it effectively and consistently I will have to stop playing poker and dedicate myself only to this study.
I have been tired of poker and if I decide to stop playing I will engage in this process. probably a year from now I will have some data already analyzed with consistency.

Phyrrura said:

I'm playing for 1 e half year now, and had had many doubts about mathematical accuracy of online poker.

I think that there is a lot of biases on our thinking that make us pay much more attention to the times that we lost that flip coin, and we don't realize how many other flip coins we had won.

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yes, but I've gone through this process a thousand times the point is that it's not about winning or losing, and not about making the right move or not. The question is simply and pure mathematics, about equity and whether it is performing in the long run as it should.

there are several ways to do it, just separate all situations: for example allin call show down pre flop in 70/30 situations that I lost VS 70/30 that I won. then separate allin showdawn situations on the flop and so on, in different equity situations and different streets. then just cross the data. It is also possible to compare with samples of other players, losers or winners, no matter what I want to study is the equity of the software.

I Live Poker said:

there are several ways to do it, just separate all situations: for example allin call show down pre flop in 70/30 situations that I lost VS 70/30 that I won. then separate allin showdawn situations on the flop and so on, in different equity situations and different streets. then just cross the data. It is also possible to compare with samples of other players, losers or winners, no matter what I want to study is the equity of the software.

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hello, and what conclusion do you want to come to in the end? and are you sure that your conclusion will be mathematically justified?

I believe there is a lot of equity in the software when I can be playing 2 different site such as poker stars and GG poker and be sitting with the same cards at both tables. This will repeat many times during the course of play as high as 10 percent.
Just what I see so not as random as people think.
Thanks

zipocool said:

hello, and what conclusion do you want to come to in the end? and are you sure that your conclusion will be mathematically justified?

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I want to arrive at the real number of the realized equity. I hope it's ok to play without worries.
I already found a great and organized model, but it will take me more than a year to do it

I Live Poker said:

I want to arrive at the real number of the realized equity. I hope it's ok to play without worries.
I already found a great and organized model, but it will take me more than a year to do it

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Can you please describe in a few short words what is your expected outcome of this study?

friends, this study is coming out better than the income!
Just by seeing the spots repeated so many times and their equities I'm learning a lot about the expected value, and understanding certain spots that I thought I was way ahead when in fact my equity wasn't that good.

Weird YT chan plug without a link i. The opening thread. Also thought it was about the rigged thing everyone is talking about.

vapandrei said:

Weird YT chan plug without a link i. The opening thread. Also thought it was about the rigged thing everyone is talking about.

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It's not about being manipulated or not, it's about whether equity is performing as it should in the long run.

it will take some time for me to complete as I am doing the hand lifting
one by one. But I'm loving doing this I love math. Soon I will post the study guidelines and the comparison model

Online poker equity study guidelines

Hands will be selected by the following criteria:

1* Hands with no losses or gains
2 * Hands won without show dawn
3* Lost hands without showdawn:
4 * Hands won at the show dawn
5* Lost Hands at the show dawn
6* Hands that were ahead and equity held
7* Hands that was behind and equity held
8* Hands that was in front and lost
9 * Hands that was behind and won
10*Total flips played
11* flip coin situations I missed
12*Flip Coin Situations I've Won

*Considering from 56% to 99% as hands I was in front, thus doing after large sampling the average margin of the % I was ahead. Applying the same formula for inverse situations. That is: hands that I was behind with the inverse parameter that I would have 44% or less of chances.

*Flip situations will be considered between 45% to 55% for both parties, also making a final average just to ensure that this item is in the 50/50 margin in a large sample.
*I will take screenshots of all situations on the hud for the purpose of authenticity of the study, free from trends or deviations.

* Total hands won in show dawn item 4 include tie hands that appear as wins on the HUD and also split equity hands such as 33/33/33/3-handed or 25/25/25/25/4-handed for example. therefore, there may be a discrepancy in the sum of items 6;7;8;9;10 , not matching the total number of hands involving show dawn , so we will use the total sum or crossing of such items among themselves to determine the comparative parameter.

*The most relevant items for research on equity are items: 6;7;8;9;10. Therefore, items: 1;2;3;4;5 will be for personal use or only for purposes of evidence or later use if necessary comparisons.

* New parameters and criteria may be added according to the need of the study, in order to determine and collect data with greater precision, and detail, thus being able to add new criteria during the course of the study.

* Flip coins are easier and can be compared with each other in a large sample, having to be as close to 50/50 or the final calculated average.

* The sum of hands without losses and gains + hands won without show dawn + hands lost without show dawn + hands won at show dawn + hands lost at show dawn is = the total number of hands. (for mathematical authenticity purposes) real proof


*The sum of items 6;7;8;9; is the total margin, ie 100%. Where inside all the situations of the same items can be found, serving as a ceiling for proportional comparison of the same.

* the sum of items 6;7 is equal to the total of hands that equity performed as it should.

* the sum of items 8;9 is equal to the total number of hands that equity was reversed

* It is possible to add the number of chips involved in items 8;9, thus being able to describe the amount of chips lost and won in each situation (how much we lose when we are ahead and equity is reversed and how much we gain when we are behind and equity is reversed.