Glad I found this thread!! Interesting to see everyone's points of view and the presumed knowledge everyone seems to have. I do some occasional sports betting and can use any input or solid picks. I'll be checking this thread now very often. Hopefully we all can win some money.
c9h13no3 said:
I think this is extremely dependent on the team.
I'll use the Steelers for the linebacker example since I'm a Steelers fan lol. Dick Lebeaus defense is complicated and is/was? struggling as it is so when a LB on the Steelers team gets injured it becomes a big issue.
Or if a team really depends on the run like the Vikings with Adrian Peterson it can become complicated..
Especially the view with the player in the "publics" eyes for example will use Troy Polomalu (5 years ago) when he was all over the field in on every play if he would of got injured in 2010. Yes the Steelers back then would probably have done fine without him but since he is seen in the betting's publics eyes it could get tricky.
Jerrick McKinnon is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. AP's career number is 5.0. Just sayin'.S3mper said:
(Yes, I know small sample size)
But the point is, AP played for years on bad teams mainly because running back doesn't matter. Jamaal Charles had one of the best RB seasons in the passing age and the Chiefs drafted #1 overall the next year. Their salaries are super low. It's not hard to find a guy who can pass block, not fumble, and pick up what's blocked. The yards after contact are flashy, but they don't correlate well with winning.
OzExorcist said:
Taking Baltimore +1 is a mistake for two reasons
1.) Steelers win this game by 14+
2.
) If Steelers do win it's definitely not going to be a 1 point game so if you are going to take the Ravens I would wait itll the money line comes out.
What I did for Steelers vs Colts I knw if Steelers were going to lose it wasn't going to be by 3 (I think it was this thread) where I said they wither win by 10+ or lose by 10+ so it's better to take moneyline... Unless the spread is a better price but the under dog is usually not
lol you usually get a better deal on money lines
For example
Steelers at +3 was @ -110
Steelers money line was +167
So I'm sacrificing 3 points that I highly doubted mattered for a 277 swing
I don't know what Baltimores money line will be but It'll probably be better then the +1 spread, I highly doubt Baltimore loses by 1 point so by sacrificing that 1 point you get a better deal
Of course this is mostly true for close spreads and under dogs
For example
Steelers at +3 was @ -110
Steelers money line was +167
So I'm sacrificing 3 points that I highly doubted mattered for a 277 swing
I don't know what Baltimores money line will be but It'll probably be better then the +1 spread, I highly doubt Baltimore loses by 1 point so by sacrificing that 1 point you get a better deal
Of course this is mostly true for close spreads and under dogs
OzExorcist said:
I was talking about last weeks game
The line right now for that game is +1 -110 money line is -105
This weeks example would beee
Panthers Vs Saints
+3 @ -110 Money line +135 however unlike the Steelers game where I felt the +3 points wouldn't matter this game +3 could be a big difference.
S3mper said:
Yeah, but the figures I quoted above were for Bal@Pit this week. One of my sportsbooks had (and still has, as of 10 minutes ago) Bal+1 paying a BETTER price than Bal SU:
http://centrebet.com/#Sports/9616119
So I figured might as well take +1 😛
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Those points do highly matter, but you're right in this case. A fair moneyline for a game with a spread of 3 is 2.49 (+149) for the underdog, and 1.67 (-149) for the favorite. So you eek out some value there if the vig is -110.S3mper said:
The BS analysis I was mostly referring to was the "If Steelers do win it's definitely not going to be a 1 point game" statement, which seems to have little factual basis... Games in the NFL end in margins of victory of one 4% of the time, two 3.5% of the time, and three 15.9% of the time.
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c9h13no3 said:
Historically the Steelers and Ravens come down to 3 points - Last game were just going to forget because it was ugly lol..
I'm willing to sacrifice that 4% to get a better deal iffff I think the point spread of that game will be larger.
Steelers so far are a team that will either show up or won't.. If they don't show up against the Ravens they will get destroyed, If they do show up (Which I think is a big possibility) I don't see the ravens stopping them...
With the Steelers new (about time) addition of a lovely 6'5 receiver freeing up AB and Le'veon Bell running and receiving along with the sure hands of Heath Miller I think they will become unstoppable..
If the defense specifically Cortez Allen is fixed and the pass rush stays where it has been the last two games the Steelers will win the super bowl. (If they can get past Denver) - Steelers play bad in Denver
I think the Steelers win by at least 10
ofc I am completely biased in this opinion lol
I still don't think this game will be decided by 1 and omg if it is I'm going to feel sooo stupid lol
Edit: The one thing is they need to learn to shut the door... They need sto stop fumbling with 10+ leads
Mistake free football Steelers!!!! cmon!!! lol
Why you betting the over?
Here's what I like this week. But I'm currently -1.4 units on the season so maybe you don't want my advice.
Car +3 - Stupid talking head narrative is that the Saints were able to fix the defense over the bye week. I'm betting the other 6 games was a better sample of how they played. Sure they beat up on the Packers coming off their bye at home, but a divisional opponent on the road on a short week is another matter.
Bal PK - Steeler's over reaction hedge here. The Steelers have been Jekyll and Hyde all year, and I love that Flacco is now chucking the ball deep. The Ravens are banged up, but not at the key positions. MP big play as well.
StL +10 - KC ranks 4th in DVOA, SF is 20th, but last week the line was 7. Over-reaction city! And the bye prolly helps less against a divisional opponent, who needs prep time when you've played each other before this year?
Mia -1.5 - I love Miami. They have the #4 defense, the #3 running game, and a mediocre QB with a super hot wife. No one will think they're great because they don't have a magical QB, but that's fine, I'll take the value. Plus SD has benefitted from fumble luck and winning close games, which is usually not sustainable. MP loves this play.
NYJ +10 - The Jets match up well with KC. KC's offense is all running the ball with Charles and throwing to TE's and RB's. Well the Jets can't cover WRs, but they stop the running game quite well. Plus this line could be an over reaction to the Geno meltdown. Vick turns the ball over as much as Geno, but at least he adds value with his running.
I'm also tempted by the Browns and Oakland.
Here's what I like this week. But I'm currently -1.4 units on the season so maybe you don't want my advice.
Car +3 - Stupid talking head narrative is that the Saints were able to fix the defense over the bye week. I'm betting the other 6 games was a better sample of how they played. Sure they beat up on the Packers coming off their bye at home, but a divisional opponent on the road on a short week is another matter.
Bal PK - Steeler's over reaction hedge here. The Steelers have been Jekyll and Hyde all year, and I love that Flacco is now chucking the ball deep. The Ravens are banged up, but not at the key positions. MP big play as well.
StL +10 - KC ranks 4th in DVOA, SF is 20th, but last week the line was 7. Over-reaction city! And the bye prolly helps less against a divisional opponent, who needs prep time when you've played each other before this year?
Mia -1.5 - I love Miami. They have the #4 defense, the #3 running game, and a mediocre QB with a super hot wife. No one will think they're great because they don't have a magical QB, but that's fine, I'll take the value. Plus SD has benefitted from fumble luck and winning close games, which is usually not sustainable. MP loves this play.
NYJ +10 - The Jets match up well with KC. KC's offense is all running the ball with Charles and throwing to TE's and RB's. Well the Jets can't cover WRs, but they stop the running game quite well. Plus this line could be an over reaction to the Geno meltdown. Vick turns the ball over as much as Geno, but at least he adds value with his running.
I'm also tempted by the Browns and Oakland.
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