College Football Thread 2019/2020

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9-4 for the day, pushed Utah second half, and Tennessee team total. 20-4 for the week. Only 2 buy outs, and one of those pushed actually, so I included 1 buy out as a win because... well it was a win since the buy out target pushed

Happy with the results on the whole obviously, but it's bitter sweet. A couple losses due to injury, and that stupid milking of the clock in the Bama game at the end. I'll never complain about 20-4, which is insane, it just sucks how the day ended. I could have bought out of that last Bama bet, but I let it ride. 9-4 is a amazing day, and 20-4 is insane.... weird to be bummed out after those results. Oh well.

Win - Troy -17
Win - Troy tt over 36
Win - Troy second half -7
Win - Clemson -23
Win - Osu -27
Win - Clemson -17/Osu -20
Win - Ucla/Stanford under 53.5
Win - Buffalo -17
Win - Osu -25.5/over 48 @+205 parlay
Win - Osu -20/over 43 tease
Loss - Osu -17, Osu over 40, Wisconsin -21
Win - Osu -17, Osu over 40, Clemson -14
Win - Osu tt over 38
Win -Osu -16.5 first half
Win - Osu -10 second half
Win - Osu/Nw over 20.5 second half
Win - Florida pickem
Win - Clemson -10 second half
Loss - Ucf -23.5, Alabama -23.5, Minnesota -19
Loss - Alabama tt over 47.5
Win - Buffalo -7 second half
Win - Minnesota -13 second half
Win - Arizona state +19.5
Loss - Alabama -11.5 second half
 
Whoops, it's actually 20-5 for the week. I must not have wrote Bama first half team total on my memos when I bet it. It lost. Probably would have covered it if Tua hadn't gotten hurt.
 
Synopsis said:
Tough loss on that one ribby. I caught the end of that game, 1 point or under losses are the worst. You were 30 seconds away from a win. Hopefully that bad luck is all you have today.
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Couple of heartbreakers - Huskies as well with Herbert heroics in Washington. I was Up 1 going into Arizona and Hawaii (who both got their tails kicked) Air Force is pretty tough! They played hard yesterday. Impressed with their grit!
 
Saturday (6-7) -$100 Overall (54-57-6) -$300


First Impressions ( 3-4)
Added (3-5)
Dropped (2-6)


What I learned this week - Rice is really weak - Washington needs to finish games -Baylor, Minnesota and SMU are fun to watch - Air Force is a tough squad

 
Learned about Wisconsin too... and it wasn't a fluke because it alost happened earlier in the season too. Really sucks that they lost right before the Osu game. The line would have been 4.5 most likely had Wisconsin won easily.
ribbybruno said:
Saturday (6-7) -$100 Overall (54-57-6) -$300


First Impressions ( 3-4)
Added (3-5)
Dropped (2-6)


What I learned this week - Rice is really weak - Washington needs to finish games -Baylor, Minnesota and SMU are fun to watch - Air Force is a tough squad
Click to expand...
 
First Impressions Week 9 -

Thursday -

Houston (+14) @ Home vs SMU - Do Cougars have chance to cover? :dontknow:

Saturday -

Wisconsin (+14) @ OSU - Badgers after loss - How will they respond? They may get whooped! I have mixed emotions but leaning toward Buckeyes,

Kansas St (+23.5) @ Home vs Oklahoma - Seems lot a lot of points away vs a decent Wildcat team

Pitt (-5.5) @ Home vs Miami - can Panthers cover 6 games in a row?

Purdue (-9.5) @ Home vs Illinois - Celebration over with and like Boilermakers in this spot

Nevada (+15) @ Wyoming - Cowboys only beat New Mexico by 13 - too many points in my opinion

Ball St (+2.5) @ Home vs Ohio - Cardinals covered last 4 games in a row

W. Kentucky(+5.5) @ Marshall - Hilltoppers covered last 4 in a row - lost by 3 last year

LSU (-11) vs Auburn - Is 11 too much? Epic game ahead but The Swamp is a mysterious place.

Texas (-2) @ TCU - Longhorns playing better than Horned Frogs after 8 weeks

UConn (-10) @ UMass - Got to stick with it - lol (5-1)

Minnesota (-16.5) @ Home vs Maryland - Gophers averaging over 30 points a game

Louisville (+3.5) @ Home vs Virginia - like the dog here - program turning the corner

Earlier today Nebraska (+1) -now (-2.5) @ Home vs Indiana - wow what a swing

Navy (-3.5) @ Home vs Tulane - Payback for last years loss - heck of a game here

Central Michigan (+2.5) @ Buffalo - Can Chippewas cover 7 in a row?

Kent State (-1.5) @ Home vs Miami of Ohio - trend win lose win lose ...

Northern Illinois (-23.5) @ Home vs Akron - Zips covered yet? I don't think they have lol

Alabama (-31) @ Home vs Arkansas - Tide will pound Hogs

Temple (+10.5) @ Home vs UCF - been a good dog to me

Boston College (+34) @ Clemson - pretty big spread - do they have a chance to cover?

Notre Dame (E) @ Michigan - just think at this point Irish a better team

Kentucky (+10.5) @ Home vs Missouri - see a battle here

Utah St (+3.5) @ Air Force - Falcons impressive last week but Aggies will win this game
 
Fired at Houston (+13.5) @ Home vs SMU - 1 Unit

These 2 coaches have been friends for quite some time. Sets up a good battle!
 
I played smu -6.5 in a tease with the 76ers and the spurs. To be honest, I thought it was a being played yesterday too. I think smu should cruise in this game, but given the relationship between the coaches I could see a "respectable loss" by Houston here where they could cover the full line.

Houston over performed a bit after they did the redshirt thing, but they have degraded since then week by week. They barely beat uconn last week.
 
Smu has dropped all the way to -11. I don't see anything saying why, no sudden players not playing for smu that I see. If that drops another half point, I'll get on it buying the hook at -10. Too much value if that happens.

Edit. Actually I can buy to 10 at just -121. I'll take a stab at it for that. If it's looking bad I'll try to get out before 7:30 or so so I can pay attention to the bucks game.
 
I'll splash on smu second half. Besides that turnover at the end of the half giving Houston a free 3 points, they have played pretty good and in control of the game. I expect that to continue. I could see Houston coming out and scoring after the half, but I think smu will pull away.
 
I'm calling this smu game bogus. I've not said that of one game all year, so I'm not calling it that because I'm not actually even losing, but it looks completely fixed. Smu has dominated all game, but when they are up 2 possessions, they do nothing, and I mean nothing. When Houston scores, which is directly after smu doing not her after going up 2 possessions, smu plays totally different, and scores. Smu was just up 2 scores, and got a pick, what do they do? Nothing, looked like the other team knew what run they would do 3 times in a row. Then on 4th smu doesn't kick a fg to go up a solid 14??? And they call a phantom offensive pass interference on a play that put smu to the 1 which gives Houston the ball??? It's totally bogus.

Edit... like I said... Houston first play after that was a 96 yard td. Same thing happened early also. Bogus.

Edit 2... now smu passes down after down, all incomplete, when only 2 and a half minutes left???? No one does that. You would run to make the other team burn their time outs and have to go down the whole field field in like 40 seconds with no time outs to kill the clock.
 
Line drops 2.5 points instantly a few minutes before the game which doesn't happen unless a huge, huge bet comes in. Then all of what I said above happens? And it was smu on top of it. That's beyond suspicious. Smu refused to play when the game was 2 possessions, and immediately gave up 1 play td anytime they were ahead by 2 possessions. I'm done talking about this, but I won't be on smu again.
 
Friday Night -

Colorado (+12) @ Home vs USC - Buffs only lost by 11 @ Trojans last year - been snowing - little cold for all those California jocks lol

1 Unit - $100
 
Thursday and Friday (2-0) Overall (56-57-6) -$100


Recap - Houston and Colorado both cover at home (2-0)

Saturday -

LSU (-10.5) @ Home vs Auburn - Good battle but the Swamp too much!

Purdue (-9.5) @ Home vs Illinois - Celebration over with and like Boilermakers in this spot



Texas (-2) @ TCU - Horned Frogs will not slow down Longhorns


Pitt (-4) @ Home vs Miami - going for 6 covers in a row are the Panthers


Minnesota (-16.5) @ Home vs Maryland - Gophers big!
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Alabama (-32) @ Home vs Arkansas - looking at 59-20 Tide
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Louisville (+3.5) @ Home vs Virginia - like the dog here


Notre Dame (-1) @ Home vs Michigan - Irish getting some weapons back


Ball St (-2.5) @ Home vs Ohio - Cardinals covered last 4 games in a row



Western Kentucky (+4) @ Marshall - Hilltoppers covered last 4


U Conn (-10) @ UMass - Keeping my word and betting against Minutemen (1-6 ATS)


Navy (-3.5) @ Home vs Tulane - Payback


Kent State (-2.5) @ Home vs Miami of Ohio - trend win lose win lose ...



Temple (+11) @ Home vs UCF - good dog at home


Kentucky (+9.5) @ Home vs Mizzou - like the dog here


Utah St. (+3.5) @ Air Force - Aggies a good team - great game


1 Unit Each - $100


Good luck today bettors! 😎
 
Looks like Oklahoma is going to get upset. Makes the Penn state game, and nd game more important now. I like both of those in those 2 games. I didn't play much this week, and didn't post any of the plays. My big 4 this week was osu (as usual), lsu, nd, and to a lesser extent, Penn state.
 
These second half lines today have been really weird. Teams dominating and it be a pickem or under 3. Ohio was a pickem, Wyoming was -2.5, buffalo is a pickem, and then there are some under 6.5 like osu, and Minnesota. Now Penn state is -2.5 while winning 21-0, in a game where ms has done absolutely nothing, and on top of it they lost their best player on offense right before the half. It's almost been free money on halfs today.
 
Why is Penn state ranked lower then clemson? Granted, it most likely won't matter because Penn state has a brutal next 3 games and at least 1 loss seems to be a given, but in no world should clemson be ranked over them at this point. Minnesota still not getting any love. I don't think they should be ranked top 5, but should be in the top 10, probably right at 10, and definitely should be ranked above baylor.

It's still 2 weeks off, but if Alabama beats lsu, should lsu drop out of the top 4? Same on the other side. To me there are 3 teams that, unless dramatic meltdown happens, should be concrete to be in the playoffs. That's osu, lsu, and alabama. Can you name any team that would beat these 3 teams on average? I cant. So you have the 4th spot open, and I don't think clemson deserves anything given their schedule. If you have a schedule like that, you have to win every game by 30+ in my opinion to be considered. Meanwhile you have Penn state behind them who, as I said above, have a brutal schedule remaining except their last game. If they pull through with only 1 loss, that's considerably more impressive than a undefeated clemson. What if Florida beats georgia? More impressive than clemson, and hell, the opposite too if Georgia beats florida. The problem with Georgia is the hype was too big so 1 loss for them is kind of unfairly weighted. What if Minnesota only drops 1 game to either Penn state, iowa, or Wisconsin. Better resume than a undefeated clemson. Clemson gets to sit back and have these other teams play each other. Penn state plays osu, and Minnesota. Minnesota plays Penn state and Wisconsin(not really in the picture anymore now) Bama plays lsu and whoever wins that game plays Florida or Georgia in the sec championship. Bama also plays auburn, who lsu, and Florida already played.

Point is, clemson is getting a free ride, and just due to name recognition they will slide in, having not played anyone who is even in remote possibilities considered a top 10 team, while these other teams play multiples of them. Osu knocks off Penn state then it's over for Penn state, even though a competitive loss at osu is a bigger accomplishment than anything on clemson resume. If Penn upsets osu, then osu possibly could be left out if the other teams run the table. You telling me clemson is more deserving then osu? If Penn state or Minnesota run the table, they deserve that 3rd or 4th spot (depending on how far lsu or Bama fall). If Florida or Georgia finish out either just the 1 loss and beat the sec west champ that will be Bama or lsu, they deserve in over a undefeated clemson. I'm really interested in how this all plays out this year. Some massive games coming up in the next 3 weeks.
 
I'm going to do a tease tonight of steelers -4, App state -6.5, and Tennessee -0.

Kind of just a play to get action against Miami tonight in a hostile environment. As for app state and Tennessee, I just love those lines, which I expect to go up, but as of right this second, they fall really nicely into a tease. I'm actually rather perplexed by the Tennessee line as a whole. Tennessee aren't powerhouses by any means, but only -10 at home to uab??? I suspect Tennessee to cover that, and I may play that after a little more research.
 
Saturday (6-10) -$400 Overall (62-67-6) -$500


First Impressions(9-15)
Dropped (2-4)

Recap notes - Buckeyes roll Badgers, LSU runs by Auburn, TCU beats Longhorns at home, Miami plays tough and shuts down Panthers

Just peeked at this week and...

Thursday -

Georgia Southern (+16) @ Appalachian St. - Mountaineers payback from last year or a grind out game?

Friday -

UConn (+27) @ Home vs Navy - Didn't Huskies score 56 on Minutemen? 😀

Saturday -

Maryland (+21) @ Home vs Michigan - Will Wolverines start slow after huge win vs Irish?

Liberty (-23.5) @ UMass - Minutemen (1-7 ATS) and I vowed to bet against them

Bowling Green (-6) @ Home vs Akron - Battle of the dregs! Zips haven't covered a game yet.

Va. Tech (+17) @ Notre Dame - Both teams 5-2 and going in different directions?

Florida (+6.5) vs Georgia in Jax - Biggest ****tail party in America! Both teams should be fresh after their bye week

Kansas (+6) @ Home Kansas St. - Can Jayhawks cover 4 games in a row?

Air Force (-14.5) @ Home vs Army - Falcons will fly high on cadets

Florida St. (-3.5) @ Home vs Miami - Payback? Good game here

Utah (-3.5) @ Washington - Payback plus one hell of a defense

W. Kentucky (-1.5) @ Home vs Fla. Atlantic - Both squads only 1 loss in CUSA - great game

East Carolina (+24) @ Home vs Cincy - Pirates played poor vs S. Fla but are (3-1 ATS last 4)
Tennessee (-11.5) @ Home vs UAB - I would think they should cover this considering they just beat Game****s by 20

Indiana (-11.5) @ Home vs Northwestern - Hoosiers dominant at home except for Buckeye loss

SMU (+6) @ Memphis - this is a great matchup - 1 loss between them - get your popcorn ready - maybe a good over this year but only 46 last year between them

North Carolina (-1.5) @ Home vs Virginia - Can Mack Brown win again? I believe he can.

USC (+4.5) @ Home vs Oregon - I will take Trojans any time as home town dog

Fresno St (+2) @ Hawaii - Bulldogs the same caliber as Air Force
 
Georgia Southern (+16) @ Appalachian St. - what happens if Georgia Southern can't get that run going? They are so 1 dimensional. To put it in perspective, these 2 teams run about the same per game, but app state also gets almost 5 times more passing yards a game. Also southern actually has a little bit more of rushing yards, yet they have 7 less rushing touchdowns. Makes you think huh. And 11 less in the air. Even if they average their 240 or so yards on the ground, they are still going to get way out gained, and app state has proven to be way more efficient at converting yards to points.

UConn (+27) @ Home vs Navy - could get ugly, I would want 28 points if I were on the dog. Who knows though, maybe last week gave rhem a boost to confidence and they play like Alabama this week... probably not.

Maryland (+21) @ Home vs Michigan - I almost never say this.... I like Michigan to win big here. Why? They desperately need wins, huge style point wins. They know that too, so I don't think they will sleep walk in this game. Their defence is top 10 and Maryland has completely lost every ounce of their mojo.

Liberty (-23.5) @ UMass - Minutemen (1-7 ATS) A man is only as good as his word, haha. It's worked out very nicely so far. I'm still upset I didn't play that akron/umass game when I was positive they would win straight up... and they did... probably for the only time for quite a while to come. They were like +300 by kickoff time, would have been nice.

Bowling Green (-6) @ Home vs Akron - this may be worse than the umass/Akron game. That was a entertaining game though, but it was like watching a bunch of infants that just learned to walk going crazy in a mosh pit.

Va. Tech (+17) @ Notre Dame - ND has next to no hope now. Are the coaches keeping them away from all the talk about that? I don't like vtech, and would have been all over this if not for nd last week. ND has definitely played better teams than tech has, and I think this line is probably fair. I think the key here is tech doesn't have the dline Michigan has, and book is really really good when he isn't constantly running for his life.

Florida (+6.5) vs Georgia in Jax - this opened at -3.5 and I immediately put it in my bet slip and bought the hook.... but I didn't bet it, I cleared it off my slip and forgot about it. Why? Something just didn't sit well with me about it. Is Georgia really that good? Their best win was notre dame... and that has so little weight to it now after what Michigan did to them. I think the main thing that turned me off from betting this is that they went into halftime last week 0-0. Yeah they won 21-0, but 0 points at halftime??? To Kentucky??? They give me Cleveland brown vibes. All that talent but not performing up to it. I'd rather stay completely away, but on paper Georgia should win this by double digits.

Kansas (+6) @ Home Kansas St. - Kansas is an enigma. When they show up they look like a top 10 team, but they look like a 120th ranked team here and there too. State looked really good last week, and beat tcu the week before that. They seem to be clicking after those losses.

Air Force (-14.5) @ Home vs Army - army looked really good week 1. What happened to them???

Florida St. (-3.5) @ Home vs Miami - Florida state seems to be finally piecing it together a bit. I think they would win this more often than not. Miami is really inconsistent and fs has been steady improving. That usually makes for a good formula to bet.

Utah (-3.5) @ Washington - if they can pressure the pass, this could get ugly. If their pass rush isn't on though Washington could pop 35 on them before halftime. So far, you'd have to believe that Utahs pass rush will indeed be there causing a lot of pressure. Dangerous opponent for both of them. Whichever breaks first could possibly get blown out.

W. Kentucky (-1.5) @ Home vs Fla. Atlantic - I'd have to look more into it. Fla Atlantic I have seen a bit of these last few weeks, and made some money on. I like how they are playing.

East Carolina (+24) @ Home vs Cincy - I don't know man... I see cincy winning big, but a possible back door.

Tennessee (-11.5) @ Home vs UAB - I already bet this when it was -10, I teased it also, also and I believe I put the plays up there in the thread somewhere. Not much needing to be said, even though Tennessee is considered a lower sec team, they still have sec recruiting and sec talent. I'd be amazed if this isn't a blow out, and it's at home? Really strange line. Yeah uab is ranked in the top 5 for defence.... but look who they have played. Already this year, they have played rice, akron, and old dominion!!! I don't believe that top 5 defence rating at all. It's fluff.

Indiana (-11.5) @ Home vs Northwestern - I hate lines like this, it's in limbo. I really like it at 10, I question it at 13..., but what about 11.5??? I tend to avoid lines like this because they cause trouble in buy outs. Indiana has been good. They always are pretty good but have to play so big time teams every year. Nw has been terrible, and that close game against Wisconsin doesn't seem so nice now.

SMU (+6) @ Memphis - I'm pretty surprised that this line isn't the other way around. Feels like a trap line. I need to look deeper into some stats to see if something sticks out. I'd think it would be high scoring regardless though.

North Carolina (-1.5) @ Home vs Virginia - both of these teams are on my shit list. That said, Virginia has better players, unc has the better coach. Unc has already met last year's win total so they already are on the way up either way. They play people tough. I'm slightly surprised this isn't a pickem, or even Virginia -1. Hard one to cap.

USC (+4.5) @ Home vs Oregon - USC has been slipping, and Oregon has a decent defence. I think this line is fair, but if someone randomly asked me which team would be able to blow out the other one more often, I would say oregon. If they played 100 times I think oregon would blow them out maybe 20 times, USC would blow them out maybe 10 timses, and the majority of the rest would be within 10 points and Oregon would win the majority of those. It's away for them though, and they did have a scare last week against a similar team, so USC might be catching them at the right place, at the right time.

Fresno St (+2) @ Hawaii - Hawaii is a team I just don't like to bet against, they are stupid good when they arent supposed to be, but very average in most games where they are supposed to be great. On paper Fresno wins this a high percentage of the time, but like I said, I just don't like going against Hawaii especially at home. Them and app state are 2 teams I've never done well betting against.
 
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I'm going to bet app state @-13. I bought a whole point here which I don't usually do. Bet this on acr, this line has moved to 14.5 and juiced at 5dimes. Going by history of what happens at 5dimes, I expect the line to change very soon everywhere else to 14.5 or even 15. I bought the whole point because 13 just sounds nice and it wasn't expensive. Also it will be the only game being played so even with the increased juice, I'll be in buy out mode if needed, so the juice is meaningless, and was only .14 more than a standard line anyway. I have San Fran in a tease tomorrow but this is the game I'll be watching.
 
Synopsis said:
I'm going to bet app state @-13. I bought a whole point here which I don't usually do. Bet this on acr, this line has moved to 14.5 and juiced at 5dimes. Going by history of what happens at 5dimes, I expect the line to change very soon everywhere else to 14.5 or even 15. I bought the whole point because 13 just sounds nice and it wasn't expensive. Also it will be the only game being played so even with the increased juice, I'll be in buy out mode if needed, so the juice is meaningless, and was only .14 more than a standard line anyway. I have San Fran in a tease tomorrow but this is the game I'll be watching.
Click to expand...

I bet App St.-15 today. Mountaineers must shut down Eagles rushing attack! I smell a little payback in this game as well! Let's Go!

1 Unit - $100
 
ribbybruno said:
I bet App St.-15 today. Mountaineers must shut down Eagles rushing attack! I smell a little payback in this game as well! Let's Go!

1 Unit - $100
Click to expand...

I just added Baylor as well -19 @ home vs West Virginia - Bears have had 3 50+ scoring games at home. I don't see why this would change vs Mountaineers. 52-20

1 Unit - $100
 
That over seems a bit low in the app state game doesn't it? Yeah both teams are going to rush mostly, so time will keep ticking, but just 44 for the over?
 
I bet it, what I did was buy down to 42.5 because right now it only costs -122 because the under is juiced. This line has already fallen 3+ points from when it opened. I'd be shocked if app state doesn't put up 35, and would also be shocked if gs didn't put up at least 14. I'm considering the app state tt also, as it is under 30 at the moment.
 
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