Can we discuss a 17 point move in Monday nights total?
Can we discuss a 17 point move in Monday nights total? We know games are scoring record high totals so far this year and the books are getting mashed early.
Even I am winning 😉
How often do we see this kind of move? Not often.
Its a hell of a total move for NFL.
Opened at 45.5
Over was pounced on by enough sharp action to move the total line 13 points in about an instant.
The total peaked at 58.5
It has been creeping back down by a half point at a time and currently sits at 56.5
An 11 point differential down from 13
The books obviously put out a bad line which the market sharps clearly corrected before major damage could be done.
Just knowing they were willing to risk a middle of 13 points or worse a syndicate priming them to come back later and the under for fifty times the amount on the back end.
It would take a lot of money and a lot of volume on the back end to move the line significantly back down.
You just dont see this every day in the NFL Can we find a bet here? Dare I leg in a little on the under? We know Green Bay is gonna get their points and a lot of em on that Atlanta defense.
But does Atlanta get as many off of the Green Bay defense? Shall we disect this game a bit? If nothing else we have an unusual discussion about a somewhat rare situation.
Im game if you are. Lets Discuss.
First lets look at key totals in the range and how often they hit in the old world NFL
be sure to give me your thoughts, stats, take. and help me disect this game....
Can we discuss a 17 point move in Monday nights total? We know games are scoring record high totals so far this year and the books are getting mashed early.
Even I am winning 😉
How often do we see this kind of move? Not often.
Its a hell of a total move for NFL.
Opened at 45.5
Over was pounced on by enough sharp action to move the total line 13 points in about an instant.
The total peaked at 58.5
It has been creeping back down by a half point at a time and currently sits at 56.5
An 11 point differential down from 13
The books obviously put out a bad line which the market sharps clearly corrected before major damage could be done.
Just knowing they were willing to risk a middle of 13 points or worse a syndicate priming them to come back later and the under for fifty times the amount on the back end.
It would take a lot of money and a lot of volume on the back end to move the line significantly back down.
You just dont see this every day in the NFL Can we find a bet here? Dare I leg in a little on the under? We know Green Bay is gonna get their points and a lot of em on that Atlanta defense.
But does Atlanta get as many off of the Green Bay defense? Shall we disect this game a bit? If nothing else we have an unusual discussion about a somewhat rare situation.
Im game if you are. Lets Discuss.
First lets look at key totals in the range and how often they hit in the old world NFL
be sure to give me your thoughts, stats, take. and help me disect this game....
Attachments
cont'd totals and probability
Help how do I get 5 more images into this thread? I am at my limit of 5 and could use 5 more but its not available to me. I am at my image limit and I have more totals and probabilities to post that are key in this range.
Who can I get help from so this ends up looking nice enough for us to do this right?
If some one can help I need the probabilities of the totals 45, 50, 55,
52, 54 (can be snapped in one image)
46,49,57,and 58 (can all be snapped in one image)
The data is from here : https://www.boydsbets.com/key-numbers-for-nfl-totals/
Please post them in the next reply so we can whiteboard the game, otherwise I have to do it ugly by typing them.
.
Help how do I get 5 more images into this thread? I am at my limit of 5 and could use 5 more but its not available to me. I am at my image limit and I have more totals and probabilities to post that are key in this range.
Who can I get help from so this ends up looking nice enough for us to do this right?
If some one can help I need the probabilities of the totals 45, 50, 55,
52, 54 (can be snapped in one image)
46,49,57,and 58 (can all be snapped in one image)
The data is from here : https://www.boydsbets.com/key-numbers-for-nfl-totals/
Please post them in the next reply so we can whiteboard the game, otherwise I have to do it ugly by typing them.
.
Last edited:
jordanbillie said:
I just read this on that game:
The Raiders passing game is in shambles heading into Week 4, with their projected top three WR’s coming into the season all ‘questionable’ or worse for Sunday’s game vs Buffalo.
So you are looking not too shabby. Good luck.
Alright - week 4! Let's go!
Cincinnati -1.5 v Jacksonville
Dallas -3.5 v Cleveland
New Orleans -3 v Detroit
Seattle -5.5 v Miami
LA Chargers +7 v Tampa Bay
Washington +14.5 v Baltimore
Arizona -3 v Carolina
Minnesota +3.5 v Houston
LA Rams -13.5 v NY Giants
Chicago +3 v Indianapolis
Las Vegas +3.5 v Buffalo
Kansas City -11 v New England
Philadelphia +9 v San Francisco
Green Bay -6.5 v Atlanta
Cincinnati -1.5 v Jacksonville
Dallas -3.5 v Cleveland
New Orleans -3 v Detroit
Seattle -5.5 v Miami
LA Chargers +7 v Tampa Bay
Washington +14.5 v Baltimore
Arizona -3 v Carolina
Minnesota +3.5 v Houston
LA Rams -13.5 v NY Giants
Chicago +3 v Indianapolis
Las Vegas +3.5 v Buffalo
Kansas City -11 v New England
Philadelphia +9 v San Francisco
Green Bay -6.5 v Atlanta
ribbybruno Last Week(5-3) Overall(14-8-1)
NFL Week 4 Picks -
Miami +5.5 vs Seattle - Time for a let down game. Seahawks secondary in shambles.
LA Rams -13.5 vs NY Giants - Rams offense will destroy Giants secondary
Chicago +3 vs Indy - Home town dog - undefeated at that
Cleve/Dallas OVER 56 - Track meet at AT@T Stadium. OBJ may have 200 yards!
SF -9 vs Philly - Firing this just to cheer tonight.😀[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]1 unit each - $100
[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]Good luck all! Enjoy the games!
NFL Week 4 Picks -
Miami +5.5 vs Seattle - Time for a let down game. Seahawks secondary in shambles.
LA Rams -13.5 vs NY Giants - Rams offense will destroy Giants secondary
Chicago +3 vs Indy - Home town dog - undefeated at that
Cleve/Dallas OVER 56 - Track meet at AT@T Stadium. OBJ may have 200 yards!
SF -9 vs Philly - Firing this just to cheer tonight.😀[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]1 unit each - $100
[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]Good luck all! Enjoy the games!