NFL Betting Thread

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OzExorcist said:
That's not technically correct - on either count.

First of all poker is actually no different to the description you've just given of sports betting: in poker the house really does always win regardless of the outcome.

But if a sports book doesn't do their job right it's certainly possible for them to lose. It doesn't happen often, especially over the long run, because they tend to be pretty good at their jobs. But it's certainly possible.

Sports betting isn't quite the same as playing casino table games against the house, and there ARE people who've made a professional living from sports betting, just are people who make a living from professional poker. Haralabos Voulgaris is probably the best know one in the poker world since he's a high stakes poker player too. Here's a (long) article on him from earlier this year: http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

Back OT: taking Carolina -5.5 tomorrow. Week 7 was horrible for me, but it sounds like it was horrible for everyone 😛
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Yeah and in both sports betting or poker you need talent and dedicate a lot to them if you want to be a winner
 
You need to find an edge and do think its more skill than blackjack. It might not be the same as poker because skill is a lot bigger factor in poker.
 
jordanbillie said:
Because this is a poker forum and we are here to help each other. Betting sports is the same thing as playing blackjack or roulette. You are betting on an outcome that you have no control over and the house takes 10%. It is impossible to win. I have seen it happen way to many times; someone goes on a heater then proceeds to donate everything back. Stop while you are ahead, sports betting is nothing like poker.
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You've completely focused on the wrong half of my post. Clearly by the title of this thread, we are posting our takes on winners week by week. It doesn't matter if we do it on a poker forum, in a parking lot, or the bathroom of a McDonalds. What we do with our money is up to us. If you were genuinely concerned of us losing our retirement funds over a couple $2-$100 bets, you didn't convey that well.

jordanbillie said:
As proven by the OP going busto.
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1 person who hasn't posted anything in a while must have gone busto which means EVERYONE will go busto. Yup.

jordanbillie said:
Ok, here is a link to an article interviewing the most renowned "professional" roulette player: http://www.isa-guide.de/english-news/articles/9649.html

Maybe I can start an online roulette thread.
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I would love for you to start a Roulette thread, if that is something you're passionate about. Hopefully, you can get some random people to follow your action and chime in from time to time. To top it off, I hope you come out on top and beat the house. I truly do, that sounds like a hoot if it is indeed your thing.

I wasn't responding to your post about any comparisons between any other forms of gambling or even debating if this is the right place for a sports thread or not (not that I need justification). But just don't come in and piss in everyone's cheerios due to your beliefs. That was the intention of my post.
 
TheKid84 said:
You've completely focused on the wrong half of my post. Clearly by the title of this thread, we are posting our takes on winners week by week. It doesn't matter if we do it on a poker forum, in a parking lot, or the bathroom of a McDonalds. What we do with our money is up to us. If you were genuinely concerned of us losing our retirement funds over a couple $2-$100 bets, you didn't convey that well.



1 person who hasn't posted anything in a while must have gone busto which means EVERYONE will go busto. Yup.



I would love for you to start a Roulette thread, if that is something you're passionate about. Hopefully, you can get some random people to follow your action and chime in from time to time. To top it off, I hope you come out on top and beat the house. I truly do, that sounds like a hoot if it is indeed your thing.

I wasn't responding to your post about any comparisons between any other forms of gambling or even debating if this is the right place for a sports thread or not (not that I need justification). But just don't come in and piss in everyone's cheerios due to your beliefs. That was the intention of my post.
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I love it !!! Just wanted to let you know that in my neck of the woods, we piss on Corn Flakes not Cheerio's...lol :afraid:
 
jordanbillie said:
Because this is a poker forum and we are here to help each other. Betting sports is the same thing as playing blackjack or roulette. You are betting on an outcome that you have no control over and the house takes 10%. It is impossible to win. I have seen it happen way to many times; someone goes on a heater then proceeds to donate everything back. Stop while you are ahead, sports betting is nothing like poker.
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Sorry, but that is totally untrue. You have absolute control, far more than NLHE where you are also at the mercy of not just your own prowess but luck amongst a whole table of players. True 'any given Sunday' and such, but there is lot of factors that one could either know or not know about. For instance, the 57+ pts between Denver and Dallas. Shootout, not a mystery, doesn't matter what the last guy bet.

OzExorcist said:
That's not technically correct - on either count.

First of all poker is actually no different to the description you've just given of sports betting: in poker the house really does always win regardless of the outcome.

But if a sports book doesn't do their job right it's certainly possible for them to lose. It doesn't happen often, especially over the long run, because they tend to be pretty good at their jobs. But it's certainly possible.

Sports betting isn't quite the same as playing casino table games against the house, and there ARE people who've made a professional living from sports betting, just are people who make a living from professional poker. Haralabos Voulgaris is probably the best know one in the poker world since he's a high stakes poker player too. Here's a (long) article on him from earlier this year: http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

Back OT: taking Carolina -5.5 tomorrow. Week 7 was horrible for me, but it sounds like it was horrible for everyone 😛
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No, the house does not always win. The 10% rake ensures they have the huge edge if they due their due diligence in correctly dtermining the right odds. But theoretically, as in previous example, if 80% of people pick the under '57 pts' (final score was tot 99 pts!!!) the house would lose big time. It all usually evens out with other upsets and even expected outcomes with the 10% rake, but again, theoretically they could lose on any given bet.

bernotas22 said:
Yeah and in both sports betting or poker you need talent and dedicate a lot to them if you want to be a winner
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Yeppers!
 
In hopes to get this train back on track, as for tonight's action I like CAR +7 and the over 40 they've given this game. I think Cam and the Panthers are clicking and with the many injuries TB has with them, too many changes for them to pull out the W on a short week.

Time to update my fantasy teams.
 
TheKid84 said:
In hopes to get this train back on track, as for tonight's action I like CAR +7 and the over 40 they've given this game. I think Cam and the Panthers are clicking and with the many injuries TB has with them, too many changes for them to pull out the W on a short week.

Time to update my fantasy teams.
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Did I digress too far? lol I like Panthers +7. 40 seems close, I might take the under if pushed. This is a bet I'd stay away from personally.
 
A couple things.
The Panthers line was -7 not +7.

Also, as to the house winning in sports betting, they make the lines such that they will get even betting on each outcome (even as in they payout the same amount no matter what the outcome is, not even as in an even amount bet on each outcome)
So if the betting is unbalanced they just adjust the spread/odds to even they betting out which basically guarantees a profit no matter what the outcome is.
 
Divebitch said:
Did I digress too far? lol I like Panthers +7. 40 seems close, I might take the under if pushed. This is a bet I'd stay away from personally.
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I did stay away from this one, I agree - just not a good match up to wager on for my money for many reasons. But those were the options I'd go with.

A9ofHearts said:
A couple things.
The Panthers line was -7 not +7.
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That's what I get for alcohol and forums 🙂 But yea, I liked the Panthers -7... oopsie
 
I would take Washington Redskins and 12 1/2 points this weekend against Denver. Another pick would be the Giants and the points. I think the favorites will cover on the rest.
 
A9ofHearts said:
A couple things.
The Panthers line was -7 not +7.

Also, as to the house winning in sports betting, they make the lines such that they will get even betting on each outcome (even as in they payout the same amount no matter what the outcome is, not even as in an even amount bet on each outcome)
So if the betting is unbalanced they just adjust the spread/odds to even they betting out which basically guarantees a profit no matter what the outcome is.
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You are incorrect about this. Some books try to balance their action, while some books actively take sides on games.

-HooDooKoo
 
HooDooKoo said:
You are incorrect about this. Some books try to balance their action, while some books actively take sides on games.

-HooDooKoo
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Ok. Thank you for pointing this out to me.
 
Divebitch said:
Did I digress too far? lol I like Panthers +7. 40 seems close, I might take the under if pushed. This is a bet I'd stay away from personally.
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A9ofHearts said:
A couple things.
The Panthers line was -7 not +7.
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Oops, yeah sorry, that's what I meant, Panthers win by more than 7. That '-' and '+' still throws me off, probably cuz I don't sports bet much, at least not the last few years.
 
Have Philly -4.5 @ $1.84 already for rest of the week, also thinking about the following:

Oakland +8.5 @ $1.30
Green Bay -9.5 @ $2.00
Detroit -3 @ $1.95
Seattle WIN @ $1.17
Kansas City WIN @ $1.30
New Orleans WIN @ $1.19

Any thoughts or advice on the above?

Obv also figuring San Fran FTW but don't see much value in betting them?
 
OzExorcist said:
Have Philly -4.5 @ $1.84 already for rest of the week, also thinking about the following:

Oakland +8.5 @ $1.30
Green Bay -9.5 @ $2.00
Detroit -3 @ $1.95
Seattle WIN @ $1.17
Kansas City WIN @ $1.30
New Orleans WIN @ $1.19

Any thoughts or advice on the above?

Obv also figuring San Fran FTW but don't see much value in betting them?
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Man I love the Detroit Pick! They better tear Dallas apart I don't like Dallas at all, not a fan! Definitely Must Watch Game Right There, Im Picking Detroit As Well...GO LIONS 😛arty:
 
Divebitch said:
No, the house does not always win. The 10% rake ensures they have the huge edge if they due their due diligence in correctly dtermining the right odds. But theoretically, as in previous example, if 80% of people pick the under '57 pts' (final score was tot 99 pts!!!) the house would lose big time. It all usually evens out with other upsets and even expected outcomes with the 10% rake, but again, theoretically they could lose on any given bet.
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Oops, I meant pick the OVER. That was the Broncos-Cowboys game.
 
TheKid84 said:
You've completely focused on the wrong half of my post. Clearly by the title of this thread, we are posting our takes on winners week by week. It doesn't matter if we do it on a poker forum, in a parking lot, or the bathroom of a McDonalds. What we do with our money is up to us. If you were genuinely concerned of us losing our retirement funds over a couple $2-$100 bets, you didn't convey that well.



1 person who hasn't posted anything in a while must have gone busto which means EVERYONE will go busto. Yup.



I would love for you to start a Roulette thread, if that is something you're passionate about. Hopefully, you can get some random people to follow your action and chime in from time to time. To top it off, I hope you come out on top and beat the house. I truly do, that sounds like a hoot if it is indeed your thing.

I wasn't responding to your post about any comparisons between any other forms of gambling or even debating if this is the right place for a sports thread or not (not that I need justification). But just don't come in and piss in everyone's cheerios due to your beliefs. That was the intention of my post.
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You're cute Kid. I like you. Honestly, good luck. 🙂 I mean it.
 
jordanbillie said:
You're cute Kid. I like you. Honestly, good luck. 🙂 I mean it.
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Thanks JB - I've been called many of things in my time, don't know how often 'cute' has been one of them lol, but I'll take it!

I've only got one parlay on the docket so far for this week's action in the NFL. Here it is:
5 Team Parlay
(214) Philadelphia Eagles -220 Oct 27/13@01:00p
Competitor: (213) New York Giants

(220) New England Patriots -265 Oct 27/13@01:00p
Competitor: (219) Miami Dolphins

(211) Dallas Cowboys vs. (212) Detroit Lions
Over 51 (-115) Oct 27/13@01:00p

(216) Kansas City Chiefs -400 Oct 27/13@01:00p
Competitor: (215) Cleveland Browns

(229) Green Bay Packers -450 Oct 27/13@08:30p
Competitor: (230) Minnesota Vikings
RISK US$ 5.00
WIN US$ 23.61
My thought being the GB, KC, and NE picks are easy gimmies. NE aint losing 2 weeks in a row, and the game is at home for them. KC hosts a struggling CLE team, and it's hard enough to win in KC, let alone against a stud undefeated defense. MIN just sucks, that is all that is needed to be said there. With Michael Vick back in PHI, if he can stay healthy I think that's a lot easier of a win for PHI than most give credit for. Not just due to Vick, but the impact he has on the rest of the offense compared to Foles/Barkley playing. DAL/DET is played indoors on turf with good offenses and bad defenses - 50+ easily in that game.
 
OzExorcist said:
Have Philly -4.5 @ $1.84 already for rest of the week, also thinking about the following:

Oakland +8.5 @ $1.30
Green Bay -9.5 @ $2.00
Detroit -3 @ $1.95
Seattle WIN @ $1.17
Kansas City WIN @ $1.30
New Orleans WIN @ $1.19

Any thoughts or advice on the above?

Obv also figuring San Fran FTW but don't see much value in betting them?
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I'd just stick with SEATTLE, K.C., and NEW ORLEANS (parlay)
 
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