NFL/college football betting thread 2015

[zjohnzzz]

utah state -5 fri night game

 

[ribbybruno]

I added last night to my NFL picks for 1 Unit each-

Jacksonville (+4.5) Vs Buffalo in London
Kansas City (-2.5) Vs Pittsburgh @ Home
Carolina (-3) Vs Philadelphia @ Home

Good luck all this weekend!

 

[c9h13no3]

I kinda like that Jacksonville in London line. They play there every year, and should be better at getting adjusted. Plus, EJ Manuel is really bad, I bet the Vegas line hasn't adjusted enough.

That Carolina line scares me. I want to jump all over it, but there's no factor there that Vegas isn't good at accounting for. We've seen Bradford play a lot, they adjust for bye weeks well, and there's no players missing on either team that are secretly key. So I'm staying away.

 

[ribbybruno]

I just don't understand it! Miami Hurricanes play solid against Florida St. but get runover by Clemson 58-0 at home. Is Clemson that good? My other question is how USC -3.5 earlier this morning but by noon the spread was -7 against undefeated Utah. Somebody knew something a dropped a chunk on that game to make it move like that so quick. But who? Then USC trounced Utah big time! Was this game fixed?

 

[xdeucesx]

I thought Ohio St. was printing money today. I'm not sure why the line was so small.

 

[grilldoggy]

Clemson is that good

I just don't understand it! Miami Hurricanes play solid against Florida St. but get runover by Clemson 58-0 at home. Is Clemson that good? My other question is how USC -3.5 earlier this morning but by noon the spread was -7 against undefeated Utah. Somebody knew something a dropped a chunk on that game to make it move like that so quick. But who? Then USC trounced Utah big time! Was this game fixed?

Miami did play solid vs FSU. Same team that got schooled vs Clemson. FSU to challenge the Tigers at Clemson in two weeks. How much of a challenge is the question now. Clemson destroyed Gtech and FSU struggled in a loss to the Jackets.

 

[zjohnzzz]

baltimore +9.5

 

[OzExorcist]

Not been a great betting week but here we go...

Palmer over 300.5 passing yards
Chris Johnson over 63.5 rushing yards
Baltimore +10

 

[c9h13no3]

Chris Johnson over 63.5 rushing yards

Better to be lucky than good...

A large chunk [of his 122 yards] -- 62 yards to be exact -- came on a fluky run where the Ravens tackled Johnson for a very minimal gain, or so they thought. Johnson was sitting on NT Brandon Williams and wasn't down by contact. Everyone quit on the play except Johnson, and he got up and ran another 60-ish yards before being caught from behind.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4743/chris-johnson

 

[OzExorcist]

Yeah, that one felt dirty but I'll take the win however it comes...

The "what ifs" are hard to work out on that one though: if he doesn't pull off that fluke run (putting Ari up by two scores just a few plays later), do they really rest him on the following drives? Or do they keep pounding him away like they had the rest of the game?

 

[ribbybruno]

Miami Hurricanes (+7) @ Home LOSS
Illinois (+7) @ Home Vs Wisconsin LOSS
Utah (+3.5) @ Southern California LOSS

This week NCAA FB- (0-3) -3.30 Units


NFL-

N.O./Indy OVER 52 LOSS
St. Louis (-5.5) @ Home Vs Cleveland WIN
San Fran (+5.5) @ Home Vs Seattle (Thurs) LOSS
Oak/S.D. OVER 46.5 WIN
Arizona (-7.5) @ Home Vs Baltimore WIN
Carolina (-3) @ Vs Philly WIN
Jacksonville (+4.5) Vs Buffalo in London WIN
Kansas City (-2.5) Vs Pittsburgh WIN

This week NFL (6-2) +3.80 Units

 

[ribbybruno]

Record - College- Last Week (0-3) Overall (18-28) -12.80 Units
NFL - Last Week (6-2) Overall (13-16-2) -4.60 Units

Units - Last Week (+.50) Overall (-17.40)

Picks This Week- 1 Unit Each

College-

Washington St. (+12) @ Home Vs Stanford
Florida (-3) Vs Georgia @ Jacksonville
Minnesota (+14) @ Home Vs Michigan
Houston (-11.5) @ Home Vs Vanderbilt
Memphis (-31) @ Home VS Tulane
North Texas (+9.5) @ Home Vs UTSA
Temple (+10.5) @ Home Vs Notre Dame

NFL -

New Orleans (-3) @ Home Vs NY Giants
Cleveland (+4.5) @ Home Vs Arizona
Cincy (E) @ Pittsburgh
Atlanta (-6.5) @ Home Vs Tampa Bay
Green Bay (-2.5) @ Denver

If Big Ben comes back that Cincy/Pitt game should be a barn burner!

 

[we will rock you]

lets go pats -8 against the dophins

 

[we will rock you]

also like ducks in college football ml

 

[we will rock you]

pats win by 29 easy covering the spread

 

[c9h13no3]

Here's mine for my betting pool:


Chi 0 - The Vikings are a fraud. They rank 28th in DVOA (20% below average). Chicago is 30th (23% below average). And a lot of that DVOA was calculated with Jimmy Clausen playing QB. This line should be Chi -3.

Bal -3 - Trestman Analytics say that Jay Cutler should throw the ball 50 times a game with Forte running the ball once. How can that be wrong? In all seriousness, this line says Baltimore & San Diego are evenly matched, while by any measure (DVOA, whatever power rankings you want), Baltimore is the better team.

Ari -4.5 - There are 3 teams far above & beyond others: Arizona, New England, Green Bay. Arizona still doesn't get the credit they deserve. And Josh McCown is still bad, he just had a good game or three against the terrible defenses of Baltimore, San Diego, and Oakland.


NYG +3.5 - NYG have a DVOA of 6%, New Orleans is -9.9%. So I get the better team, and more than the standard 3? Yes plz.


Ten +4 - Mettenberger & Mariota aren't all that different. Mettenberger was more likely to throw interceptions in his rookie year, but given a standard sophmore improvement, they should be pretty equivalent. Plus Houston just lost Arian Foster. This line should really be 3 if you ask me.

 

[OzExorcist]

I got in too late for some of the good lines, but I've got Chicago @ 2.05 and and Cinci @ 2.00 for a unit each

 

[OzExorcist]

...and I broke even on those. If you had've asked me partway through the third quarter I would've said the Bears would win and Cinci wouldn't, but there you go...

 

[c9h13no3]

Look-ahead for next week's games:

-Belichick gets the mini-bye, and he probably gets more out of bye weeks than any coach (10-7 ATS off a bye).

-Cameron Wake is probably the 2nd most valuable non-QB (behind JJ Watt), and he's out. But Rex Ryan is 1-5 coming off a bye ATS. So this game's probably a stay away.

-Fitzpatrick likely won't play for the Jets, and the drop off to Geno is huge. Blake Bortles is bad, but I might take the Jaguars coming off a bye.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Forgot to mention I had Denver straight up tonight.

 

[ribbybruno]

College-

Washington St. (+12) @ Home Vs Stanford WIN
Florida (-3) Vs Georgia @ Jacksonville WIN
Minnesota (+14) @ Home Vs Michigan WIN
Houston (-11.5) @ Home Vs Vanderbilt WIN
Memphis (-31) @ Home VS Tulane LOSS
North Texas (+9.5) @ Home Vs UTSA WIN
Temple (+10.5) @ Home Vs Notre Dame WIN

This Week College FB - (6-1) +4.80

NFL -

New Orleans (-3) @ Home Vs NY Giants TIE
Cleveland (+4.5) @ Home Vs Arizona LOSS
Cincy (E) @ Pittsburgh WIN
Atlanta (-6.5) @ Home Vs Tampa Bay LOSS
Green Bay (-2.5) @ Denver LOSS

This Week NFL (1-3-1) -2.30 Units

 

[ribbybruno]

Record - College- Last Week (6-1) Overall (24-29) -7.90 Units
NFL - Last Week (1-3-1) Overall (14-19-3) -6.90 Units

Units - Last Week (+2.60) Overall (-14.80)

Picks This Week- 1 Unit Each

College-

(Friday) San Jose St (+13.5) @ Home Vs BYU
Texas Tech (+8.5) @ West Virginia
Pittsburgh (+8.5) @ Home Vs Notre Dame
Florida St (+12.5) @ Clemson
Arizona St (+2.5) @ Washington St
Oklahoma St (+5.5) @ Home Vs TCU
Marshall (+3) @ Middle Tenn St
Houston (-8) @ Home Vs Cincy
Memphis (-7.5) @ Home Vs Navy
Utah (+1.5) @ Washington
LSU (+6.5) @ Alabama

NFL-

Tampa Bay (+1) @ Home Vs New York Giants
Carolina (+2.5) @ Home Vs Green Bay
New Orleans (-7) @ Home Vs Tennessee
Minnesota (-2.5) @ Home Vs St. Louis
Pittsburgh (-4) @ Home Vs Oakland
(Monday) San Diego (-4) @ Home Vs Chicago

 

[zjohnzzz]

App state -12 tonight

 

[OzExorcist]

0.5u on Cle-Cin over 45 tonight, getting 1.91 (just better than the Pinnacle vig-free price) at a local book.

 

[zjohnzzz]

memphis -7.5