NFL/college football betting thread 2015

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xdeucesx said:
Update:

4-1 today including a 4 team parlay with under 52 in PIT/NE, broncos -4.5, bengals -3, dolphins -4. Risked 5$ and won 60$


Season: 9-3-0, +16.53 units


edit: Taking over 53 in DAL/NYG tonight
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Great job! Nice win!
 
Split the 2 Pro games - (1-1) Overall College and Pro(2 Weeks) 8-8

Jets played well!

Dallas had 3 turnovers to give Giants 17 points to make it close.
 
One of my books gave me a free bonus bet so I'm now freerolling Min@SF with SF+3/Min-2.5. Vikes by three would be ideal 😛
 
I won a big bet on the Falcons to win straight up at home.

I'm up big after week 1.
 
Hayne muffs his first punt return - feel bad for the guy, but my bet gets up...
 
Finished this week 4-3 for +0.58 units.

Plus my Hayne first punt return under 12.5y bet got up for another +0.88 units.

Doubled down on that and bet his first one next week goes under 9.5 yards 😛 Same as before, no action if he doesn't attempt one.
 
Results Week 1

9/13/15 1:00pm NFL Football Seattle Seahawks -4½ -110* vs St. Louis Rams

9/13/15 1:00pm NFL Football Green Bay Packers -7 +100* vs Chicago Bears

9/10/15 8:30pm NFL Football New England Patriots -7 +100* vs Pittsburgh Steelers

9/14/15 7:10pm NFL Football Atlanta Falcons +2½ +110* vs Philadelphia Eagles <-----Large Bet

9/13/15 4:05pm NFL Football San Diego Chargers -3 -105* vs Detroit Lions

9/13/15 4:25pm NFL Football Cincinnati Bengals -3½ +105* vs Oakland Raiders

8:30pm NFL Football 462 New England Patriots -12 +170* vs Pittsburgh Steelers

9/13/15 4:25pm NFL Football 486 Denver Broncos -4½ -110* vs Baltimore Ravens

9/13/15 8:30pm NFL Football 488 Dallas Cowboys -7 +115* vs New York Giants

Push

Lose

Win

5-3-1
 
ribbybruno said:
What do you folks mean as units? how much is 1.0 unit?
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Erm... it's however much your standard betting unit is?

Different people have different bankroll management systems for sports betting (and a lot of people have none at all), for me one unit is about 2% of my sports betting bankroll.

People talk in units because it makes it easier to compare apples with apples - somebody could say they've won $2,000 on the season betting sports, and another person could say they've won $200. But if the first person is betting $1,000 each time, and the second person is only betting $10 each time, you'd probably argue that the second person is the more "successful" sports bettor... even though they haven't won as much money in total.
 
Places to get NFL betting advice that isn't retarded. Post yours, here's mine.

Massey-Peabody - They've held 56.4% record ATS for 4 years.

Throwing Darts Column - Pianowski has had a 52.7% win percentage ATS for the last 5 years. Breaking even in the NFL is nothing to sneeze at.

Behind the Bets - Millman isn't a great picker of games, and he talks to Vegas bookies who run books that are much squarer than offshore. But the principles are still valid.

So far on the year I'm +3.6 units. I kinda think the NFL has more edge early in the year, when everything's a bit of a mystery. Once you get 4 games under your belt, they are who we thought they were.
 
OzExorcist said:
Erm... it's however much your standard betting unit is?

Different people have different bankroll management systems for sports betting (and a lot of people have none at all), for me one unit is about 2% of my sports betting bankroll.

People talk in units because it makes it easier to compare apples with apples - somebody could say they've won $2,000 on the season betting sports, and another person could say they've won $200. But if the first person is betting $1,000 each time, and the second person is only betting $10 each time, you'd probably argue that the second person is the more "successful" sports bettor... even though they haven't won as much money in total.
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My "unit" is also 2% btw.
 
c9h13no3 said:
Places to get NFL betting advice that isn't retarded. Post yours, here's mine.

Massey-Peabody - They've held 56.4% record ATS for 4 years.

Throwing Darts Column - Pianowski has had a 52.7% win percentage ATS for the last 5 years. Breaking even in the NFL is nothing to sneeze at.

Behind the Bets - Millman isn't a great picker of games, and he talks to Vegas bookies who run books that are much squarer than offshore. But the principles are still valid.

So far on the year I'm +3.6 units. I kinda think the NFL has more edge early in the year, when everything's a bit of a mystery. Once you get 4 games under your belt, they are who we thought they were.
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Lol at channelling Dennis Green.
 
OzExorcist said:
Erm... it's however much your standard betting unit is?

Different people have different bankroll management systems for sports betting (and a lot of people have none at all), for me one unit is about 2% of my sports betting bankroll.

People talk in units because it makes it easier to compare apples with apples - somebody could say they've won $2,000 on the season betting sports, and another person could say they've won $200. But if the first person is betting $1,000 each time, and the second person is only betting $10 each time, you'd probably argue that the second person is the more "successful" sports bettor... even though they haven't won as much money in total.
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Ok -- Thanks! That helps me out. So if I am 8-8 at $100 a game and I lose $10 on every loss( Won 8 = 800 Loss 8 = 880). Would that be -.80 Units?
 
So far for this week I've got the following super-square looking bets...

Den +3 0.75u @ 2.09
NE SU 1u @ 1.92
Bal -5.5 1u @ 1.90

Jarryd Hayne first punt return @ Pit u9.5y 0.5u @ 1.95 (no action if he doesn't attempt)

I think the Denver game in particular is a bit of an overreaction to last week - Houston basically gifted two TDs to KC with a pick and a lost fumble deep in their own territory, and they still only beat an offense run by Hoyer and Mallett by one score. Meanwhile I know Denver didn't look like the Denver of recent years but I still think they've got the better QB/coaching combo and I think their defense will definitely keep the game close too. I figured it'd be closer to a pick 'em game, didn't expect to see Denver as three point dogs (and at better than even money to boot...)
 
Denver +3 for 1 unit tonight for me too Oz. I don't have any faith in Houston while Hoyer was QB, so I think it's an overreaction to KC playing a weak Houston team while Denver played a very strong Baltimore defense.
 
NCAA CFB- Overall (7-7) Last week (3-4) NFL Overall (1-1) = -.80 Units

My picks this week at 1 Unit each-

College-

(Fri.) Boston College +9 @ Home vs Florida State - Should be a good tussle.
Illinois +9 @ North Carolina
Syracuse -7.5 @ Home vs Central Michigan
Northern Illinois +34.5 @ Ohio State
Auburn +7 @ LSU
Texas Tech +12 @ Arkansas
Alabama -7 @ Home vs Mississippi

NFL -

Pittsburgh -6 @ Home vs San Francisco
New Orleans -11 @ Home vs Tampa Bay
Chicago +2 @ Home vs Arizona

Good luck all!
 
Added a couple of small props for tonight:

Alex Smith under 230.5 passing yards 0.5u @ 1.87
Maclin under 59.5 receiving yards 0.5u @ 1.87

Thought both seemed a little bit high before factoring in that they're playing the Denver defense that kept Flacco and co to just over a hundred yards last week...
 
OzExorcist said:
Added a couple of small props for tonight:

Alex Smith under 230.5 passing yards 0.5u @ 1.87
Maclin under 59.5 receiving yards 0.5u @ 1.87

Thought both seemed a little bit high before factoring in that they're playing the Denver defense that kept Flacco and co to just over a hundred yards last week...
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I think those are both pretty safe bets.
 
Sqeaking in one late prop, Justin Houston under 4.5 combined tackles and assists, 0.25u @ 1.77
 
Dal +5 - Yep, this is just another bet against Philadelphia (who I think is the most over rated team in the NFL). Maybe this line is bigger because Dez Bryant is out, but WR's just aren't that important. Dallas & Philly have the same rating according to Football Outsiders FWIW. This line should be 3, and I think even your mom knows it.

Cle +1 - Woah woah woah. I love Mariota as much as the next guy, but let's not go laying 4 points on the road with the Titans. Cleveland also isn't as bad as they looked against the Jets. They fumbled 4 times, losing all four, with an interception to boot. Even the Browns won't have 5 turnovers a game, and typically if you fumble 4 times, you'll only lose 2 (recovering fumbles is not a skill). GIMME JOHNNY ****IN' FOOTBALL.

NE 0 - We knew last year that a physical running team can beat Indy, deflated footballs or not. Buffalo did it, and now they're only 3 points worse than the Pats? This line was like -4 last year, and Buffalo is pretty much the same team. Plus the Patriots get the mini-bye off the Thursday night game.

Car -3.5 - I only have to pay a half a point to get a talent gap like Cam Newton to Ryan Mallet. Mallet couldn't look better than Brian Hoyer in the preseason. (Homer pick)

SF +5 - People seem to be writing off the Minnesota game as a fluke. SF has a legit offensive line, and Pitt hasn't stopped anyone on defense for years. I'll buy some 49'ers.

Sea +3.5 - St. Louis is good, and Seattle lost a close game in overtime due to Pete Carroll being an idiot. They're not suddenly a bad team. If this game was in week 1, the line would be at least 3, if not less. Bryan Bulaga's banged up, Randall Cobb isn't himself. I'll take half a point of value that the Seahawks can hang around and pressure Rodgers.

And yeah, I think the Den @ KC line is an over reaction to week 1. Basically, it's safer to bet that the old QB won't fall off a cliff, than the reactionary "Manning is done" logic. I just didn't get my bet in for that game in time.
 
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