TheKid's Parlay Megathread v2.0

  • Thread starter Thread starter TheKid84
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love the NFL!
Yesterday bet the total points under 54.5 points scored 55 .Had Broncos -7.5
They win by 7 DISASTER
Hallelujah! today I had the Lions -4.5 and H_H 1.40 for $100 and also pick the 1st touchdown scorer.
Back on the horse and galloping, yeehaa!
 
c9h13no3 said:
I needed the Jags +10 as well. That was pretty gross.

I'm 2-3 ATS so far (Dal +5, Car +1, Jac +10, Mia +4.5, Bal -2.5). Meht. I still like the thought process I had.
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Didn't get to actually see any of the Jags game, but yeah - ugly finish 🙁

0-3 ATS for me this week. Had one other win, mid-game totals bet on Den-Ind that got up. Finished -1.09 units on the week.

I'm assuming with that line you took Carolina before they announced Newton wasn't playing?
 
OzExorcist said:
I'm assuming with that line you took Carolina before they announced Newton wasn't playing?
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Yeah, people play through rib injuries all the time. Lots of QB's & RB's get cracked ribs. They put on a flak jacket and never miss a game. Figured the line was set with some probability Newton wouldn't play, and I was getting a bit of a discount because of that.

But the real reason I bet it is because I'm not a Bucs/Lovie believer. I bet the Bucs win total under, McCown is a journeyman who has sucked at every stop before Trestman, Lovie is a run & defense kind of coach which is 1980's strategy. No faith in the Bucs what-so-ever. If I had been at a keyboard rather than a bar, I prolly woulda tried to find action when the line moved up to +5. And MP loved the Panthers. Just seemed like a slam dunk bet to me.
 
So I've avoided the disaster that was last week's betting for the last 48 hours, but time to wake up and smell the coffee. One thing is for certain, having watching the entire Patriots/Dolphins game when it was happening, and watching them get out gained 222-67 yards in the second half (including 31 meaningless yards to end the game), just disturbing on all ends.

But that was week 1. Lets get going on week 2.

Thursday game is simple: evenly matched teams on short week can go any way. I'm staying away from this one. Sorry Bal/Pit.
On Carbon:
Dal/Ten - Dal+3.5 (Dal just got spanked at home, I know this game is in Ten, however if I decide to tease 10 points in favor of Dal, I don't see Dal's offense allowing a 2TD gap there. Also, would be surprised if they drop to 0-2...)
NE/Min - NE -3.5 (NE rarely loses twice in a row. It is in Min, and Min just came off a victory in StL. I'm tempted, but that colonoscopy of a week 1 still lingers, and it smell like nasty New England...)
Den/KC - Den -13.5 (Den looked good vs a good Colts team, they now host a very bad looking KC team that lost some major key players on their D, I hope this line stays by the time I make up my mind, I will be teasing 10 in favor of Den, putting them at a -3.5)
Phi/Ind - Over 54 (Monday night in Indy's dome, I think teasing 10 points for the over would be a wise idea. Yes, Philly was embarrassed in the first half by a crap team. Yes, Indy was off to a slow start as well only scoring 7. There are some certainty to these two teams though, they can score, they like to score, and their coaches like to get points. Over 44, 7td's, seems easy in my opinion)
NO/Cle - NO -6.5 (Like NE, I don't think New Orleans are going to go 0-2. Cle played a nice comeback story against division rivals Pit, but I don't think they'll be able to pull out with a W hosting NO. This could be my last leg I need for my 10 point teaser)

Let me know what you guys think. I'll keep looking at lines and post what I like/dislike. Lets win some money!!!
 
"Thursday game is simple: evenly matched teams on short week can go any way. I'm staying away from this one. Sorry Bal/Pit."

Totally agree no edge here, prefer to watch this one.
 
Den/KC - Den -13.5 (Den looked good vs a good Colts team, they now host a very bad looking KC team that lost some major key players on their D, I hope this line stays by the time I make up my mind, I will be teasing 10 in favor of Den, putting them at a -3.5)
Phi/Ind - Over 54 (Monday night in Indy's dome, I think teasing 10 points for the over would be a wise idea. Yes, Philly was embarrassed in the first half by a crap team. Yes, Indy was off to a slow start as well only scoring 7. There are some certainty to these two teams though, they can score, they like to score, and their coaches like to get points. Over 44, 7td's, seems easy in my opinion)

Like your comments on these two games.I intend following your selections.Wish me luck.Will be singing your praises if they succeed.
 
okeedokalee said:
Den/KC - Den -13.5 (Den looked good vs a good Colts team, they now host a very bad looking KC team that lost some major key players on their D, I hope this line stays by the time I make up my mind, I will be teasing 10 in favor of Den, putting them at a -3.5)
Phi/Ind - Over 54 (Monday night in Indy's dome, I think teasing 10 points for the over would be a wise idea. Yes, Philly was embarrassed in the first half by a crap team. Yes, Indy was off to a slow start as well only scoring 7. There are some certainty to these two teams though, they can score, they like to score, and their coaches like to get points. Over 44, 7td's, seems easy in my opinion)

Like your comments on these two games.I intend following your selections.Wish me luck.Will be singing your praises if they succeed.
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Glad to hear my thoughts are echoed. I'm thinking of doing the 10 point teaser on these, and for my third pick maybe the Dal +3.5, making it Dal +13.5.

Would really like some victories this week.

Here is where the finances sit at... ugh...
Carbon: -$79
Bovada: -$51.27
Overall: -130.27
 
Last edited:
I'm looking for action on KC, Dal, NYJ, and Ari. Lemme know if you wanna give me some.
 
2 Things:

1) Holyshit Vegas has flipped their lid. The line on the Minnesota game has rocketed from 3 to 7, but was then bought back down by sharp money to 6. That seems like an INSANE adjustment to a RB (the least important position in football).

2) We should probably create an NFL betting thread, since this has bloomed to be more than discussion of one guy's bets.
 
c9h13no3 said:
2 Things:

1) Holyshit Vegas has flipped their lid. The line on the Minnesota game has rocketed from 3 to 7, but was then bought back down by sharp money to 6. That seems like an INSANE adjustment to a RB (the least important position in football).

2) We should probably create an NFL betting thread, since this has bloomed to be more than discussion of one guy's bets.
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The news of AP is horrible, for I am a big fan of the guy. An amazing athlete, and hopefully this isn't more of just an old school way of up-bringing a child.

I love how the thread opens up to any football betting strategy out there and other's thoughts. Although the title refers to my progress on how I do this year in sports better, by all means lets continue to let it grow. My hopes are that anyone can post thoughts on bets and track whatever they would like here. My view for this is to voice my thoughts on best, discuss them with others, and track how I do. If we had 4 others doing the same in here, that would be absolutely amazing.

We could get a Mod to change the title if we like (what's in a name, right?), but my intentions will still be the same on discussing and tracking for my purposes.

Have placed some bets for week 2. Will post them when I think I'm done betting. Let's have a winning week!!!
 
Week 2
Carbon: -$79
Bovada: -$51.27
Overall: -130.27

So having a rough week in poker along with a rough week last week in sports betting, I've put myself in a corner for a must win on my big bets. I've gone with a couple of games where I'm teasing points towards some stronger teams vs some weaker teams.

I may toss in some smaller SU parlays later on, but here are my two big bets for the weekend.

Bovada:
3 Team Teaser
New Orleans Saints +3 Sep 14/14@01:00p
Competitor: Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks +4 Sep 14/14@04:05p
Competitor: San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos -3 Sep 14/14@04:25p
Competitor: Kansas City Chiefs
Risk US$ 100.00
To Win US$ 90.91

Carbon:
Bet $ 75.00 to win $ 62.50
Result: Pending
Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans 09/14/14 13:00 EDT
Dallas Cowboys +13.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos 09/14/14 16:25 EDT
Denver Broncos -3
New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers 09/14/14 16:25 EDT
Green Bay Packers +1.5
 
S3mper said:
I think San Diego shows up against Seattle and upsets them
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Noooooooooooooooooo. No way (in my opinion).

Sea has had a 10 day break, where SD has had a 6. Sea looked great in the season opener, stoping a possible contender in GB.

SD showed us why they will continue on the path they have always been on, a team with talented players under performing on a norm. Blowing a 17-6 lead and being shut down in the fourth quarter last week to an Arizona team not known for any offense does not bode well for them.

Sea is just too strong on all front and too well coached. Their upsets will come in time, I don't think they'll go 16-0, but that wont be until week 6 or 7 when their bodies are a bit sore and they can afford a L or two.
 
TheKid84 said:
And if they do, lets just hope it's by less than 4 points 🙂
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lol

TheKid84 said:
Noooooooooooooooooo. No way (in my opinion).

Sea has had a 10 day break, where SD has had a 6. Sea looked great in the season opener, stoping a possible contender in GB.

SD showed us why they will continue on the path they have always been on, a team with talented players under performing on a norm. Blowing a 17-6 lead and being shut down in the fourth quarter last week to an Arizona team not known for any offense does not bode well for them.

Sea is just too strong on all front and too well coached. Their upsets will come in time, I don't think they'll go 16-0, but that wont be until week 6 or 7 when their bodies are a bit sore and they can afford a L or two.
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I also think Arizona will do good and even make a post season run =o

GB made a mistake against Seattle and only threw the ball on the left side of the field.. Not to mention that Seattle was @ home where the stadium is specifically designed to not only trap noise but echo it onto the field..

I don't think Seattle's corner is the best in the game or even on that team (Yup taking Hines Wards line) but I agree with him.. only reason he is known is because he made a fool of himself in the Playoffs after one play.

Rivers tears up Sherman @ home

Maybe 😀
 
S3mper said:
lol



I also think Arizona will do good and even make a post season run =o

GB made a mistake against Seattle and only threw the ball on the left side of the field.. Not to mention that Seattle was @ home where the stadium is specifically designed to not only trap noise but echo it onto the field..

I don't think Seattle's corner is the best in the game or even on that team (Yup taking Hines Wards line) but I agree with him.. only reason he is known is because he made a fool of himself in the Playoffs after one play.

Rivers tears up Sherman @ home

Maybe 😀
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Sherman is a beast. I'm not a fan, but the facts are facts. I checked out his numbers from last season, and it was really impressive.

"But Sherman was No. 1 among NFL cornerbacks with an opponent passer rating of 47.3 when he was targeted in coverage. Sherman saw 58 passes thrown his way. The opposition caught just 30 passes for 421 yards with two touchdowns and eight interceptions against Sherman."

1:4 TD:INT ratio is pretty badass. Giving the opposing QB a 47.3 passer rating is rather nice as well.

But yes, I would really love it if he would shut up hahaha
 
pfft just luck if Corner backs could catch they would be playing Wide receiver
 
Someone must agree with you S3mper, line on SD has come into only +5 on Pinnacle.

I could be convinced they could cover (they certainly weren't untouchable on the road last year), but I'd be a lot less sure about them actually winning 😛

As for the huge line move on Minn, does it make them worth backing? MP had them as a big play at +3...
 
So we know week 1 was an embarrassment to say the least. Last week I was 9-7 picking straight up. Lets see how this week goes...

1:00 PM ET
Dolphins at Bills
Dolphins SU

​
1:00 PM ET
Jaguars at Redskins
Jaguars SU (for the upset)

1:00 PM ET
Cowboys at Titan
Cowboys SU

1:00 PM ET
Cardinals at Giant
Cards SU

1:00 PM ET
Patriots at Vikings
Pats SU
​

​
1:00 PM ET
Saints at Browns
Saints SU

​
1:00 PM ET
Falcons at Bengals
Falcons SU
​

​
1:00 PM ET
Lions at Panthers
Panthers SU
​

​
4:05 PM ET
Rams at Buccaneers
Bucs SU
​

​
4:05 PM ET
Seahawks at Chargers
Seahawks SU
​

​
4:25 PM ET
Texans at Raiders
​

​
4:25 PM ET
Jets at Packers
Packers SU
​

​
4:25 PM ET
Chiefs at Broncos
Broncos SU
​

​
8:30 PM ET
Bears at 49ers
Bears SU
​

Monday, September 15th
​
8:30 PM ET
Eagles at Colts
Eagles SU
​
 
I agree with all except

Titans > Cowboys

Rams > Bucks

Jet> Green bay (Whattt??? Is he crazeh?!?! ) (Maybe a little) <---- Upset as well

49ers> Bears

Colts > Eagles

Umm the Lions Vs Panthers I couldn't choose between it was close

and you didn't pick who you had for Texans Raiders but I would pick Texans on that

Sooo yup

I'm going 100% week 2 u wait and see lol

Chargers > Seahawks <--- My upset
 
OzExorcist said:
As for the huge line move on Minn, does it make them worth backing? MP had them as a big play at +3...
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Hell ****ing yes. It's a max unit size bet if I ever saw one...
 
football betting

taking seattle -5.5,jets +7.5,arizona -2,texans +3,and the over 49.5 in the cowboys/titans game
 
Here is everything I've got on the line today. Not too much, but hopefully making money instead of losing money.

Week 2
Carbon: -$79
Bovada: -$51.27
Overall: -130.27

Bovada:
3 Team Teaser
New Orleans Saints +3 Sep 14/14@01:00p
Competitor: Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks +4 Sep 14/14@04:05p
Competitor: San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos -3 Sep 14/14@04:25p
Competitor: Kansas City Chiefs
Risk US$ 100.00
To Win US$ 90.91

Dallas Cowboys +3.5
NO Saints -310
NE Pats -210
GB Packers -400
Risk US$2.00
To Win US$6.95


Carbon:
Bet $ 75.00 to win $ 62.50
Result: Pending
Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans 09/14/14 13:00 EDT
Dallas Cowboys +13.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos 09/14/14 16:25 EDT
Denver Broncos -3
New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers 09/14/14 16:25 EDT
Green Bay Packers +1.5

Bet $5.00 to win $13.89
Denver Broncos -800
NE Pats -225
NO Saints -280
GB Packers -400
Seattle Seahawks -270
 
And let it be known that if Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey aren't playing tonight, which it looks like they aren't at this point, I've got CHI losing.
 
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