$1 NLHE MTT Rebuy: J9os: close call or just a punt?

  • Thread starter Thread starter Satiivas
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Satiivas said:
https://www.boomplayer.com/25539679_CF4B517A45

20+ players left, we're about the 10th place, but the stacks are quite even around 14th-8th.

Villain is tightish, been looking for a spot to shove for a while now.

I'd love to hear your thoughts first before saying anything myself.
Click to expand...

As you had mentioned, villain is tight and he was looking for a spot to shove. You knew he was going to shove with better hands than J9o. If you already knew he was leading you should have folded.
 
You mentioned your read was that he was tight-ish its easy to look at this after and say you should have folded.

But given your read, did you consider the range of hands he would likely push with? You had him covered enough to hope for Miracle but its basically a 4+bet to your bb. Watching this seems like an easy fold. Curious what others think

note: I 3x bet the flop yesterday with A/10 s in mid position, player to my left called, flop came 10,8,5 I pushed allin 16 players left in a 50mBtc GTD
I pushed all in and he called. Watched him turn over J9 and catch a Q on the turn. This was a player that called almost every hand, and usually called the flop bet if pot or under, which is why I pushed. - just pointing that out cause I may not be the person to take advice from lol
 
Yeah, I kind of agree with all of you having given it some thought. But here's my thought process during the hand:

His shove was for 4+BB, I got 2:1 to call. I figured, he'd have enough underpairs and also I have around 35% against all of his Ax, Kx, Qx hands, that don't have a J in them, which was likely, given that I was holding one of them.

I think it's kind of unlucky as well to see exactly KJ against my hand. It could have been KQ or AQ or AK or whatever if I'd only have had two live cards.

Off-topic, but I need to get it out of my system: I finished in the 14th place of the tournament. I was the 6th biggest stack and ran my full house into another big stack's flopped straight flush. FeelsBadMan
 
By noticing him just folding several orbits in a row and letting himself blind out to 4BB?
 
Yeah, when you see someone blinding himself out, what does that mean? It simply means that he's waiting for strong hands, i.e. he's a NIT. His range is way strong there, something like {Broadways, AXs, A5o+, 22+}.

He wasn't looking for a spot, he was waiting for some strong hand to fall in his lap

Nothing wrong with your call, it was very marginal though (like breaking-even marginal). I'm telling this so that you would range him (or anyone like that) better next time around.
 
I think I got his range down to quite similar place as you did.
And I'm doing well enough getting 2:1 (marginally though, as you said) against most of his hands, that are not overpairs or hands dominating me. Maybe taking the spot wasn't necessary though...
 
I believe by the data you gave us it was a clear fold... I think you also know it just took a chance to see if you could get a bigger stack and eliminate one player but it wasn't at all bad at the final stages it was a good chance he could have lso 44-77 or something that would have gave you a better chance for the final table

Good Luck next time!!
 
Satiivas said:
https://www.boomplayer.com/25539679_CF4B517A45

20+ players left, we're about the 10th place, but the stacks are quite even around 14th-8th.

Villain is tightish, been looking for a spot to shove for a while now.

I'd love to hear your thoughts first before saying anything myself.
Click to expand...

Nice call Satiivas..I think its the definition of break even,to little +EV...Fold is absolutely fine,but i would call also...Even if he is NIT and he doesnt shove his 4bbs with Nash ranges (around 32.5%),he cant shove less than 27%...i cant imagine how he can fold K6s-K8s or T9s for example..you need 34% equity to call as you mentioned before so its a decent call..GG 🙂
 
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