$10 NL HE MTT: Two pair facing pressure from a nit on wet board

Game is a 32-man On Demand SnG on PokerStars. Second blind level so still very early. SB is a typical fish playing VPIP 39/PFR 14 over 315 hands. The main opponent is going to be BTN, who is a typical nit playing VPIP 15 / PFR 7 with a 3% 3-bet over 1k hands. His postflop aggression factor is a neutral 2. I think, there are a number of interesting decision points in this hand:

Flop: C-bet or check?
Turn: Raise or call the initial small bet from the fish?
River: Call or fold when the nit fire another small bet?

PokerStars, $9.25 + $0.75 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 1,430 (48 bb)
MP: 1,500 (50 bb)
CO (Hero): 1,624 (54 bb)
BU: 1,392 (46 bb)
SB: 1,619 (54 bb)
BB: 1,050 (35 bb)

Pre-Flop: (69) Hero is CO with A♠ T♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 75, BTN calls 75, SB calls 60, 1 fold

Flop: (279) T♦ J♦ 7♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (279) A♥ (3 players)
SB bets 60, Hero calls 60, BTN raises to 180, SB folds, Hero calls 120

River: (699) 2♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 270, Hero?

The way it played looks like SB picked up some kind of Ace but BTN's raise may mean a completed draw. AT would lose to KQ and AJ. I wouldn't expect to see slow played sets here from a nit, but it's possible.

I think the check on the flop is a standard play as second best pair on a draw heavy board.

On the turn the SB is just feeling out the board like fish sometimes do. No point raising and then getting more aggression behind you from BTN in my opinion.

River - the flush draw gets there. I don't think BTN has a flush. I would expect a straight on the turn. I wonder if he would be capable of folding a made hand here? His bet looks value-heavy. Is it possible he has something like AK or AQ here, that Hero can beat?

I think 2 pairs has to call on the river. It's too strong to fold.

fundiver199 said:

Game is a 32-man On Demand SnG on PokerStars. Second blind level so still very early. SB is a typical fish playing VPIP 39/PFR 14 over 315 hands. The main opponent is going to be BTN, who is a typical nit playing VPIP 15 / PFR 7 with a 3% 3-bet over 1k hands. His postflop aggression factor is a neutral 2. I think, there are a number of interesting decision points in this hand:

Flop: C-bet or check?
Turn: Raise or call the initial small bet from the fish?
River: Call or fold when the nit fire another small bet?

PokerStars, $9.25 + $0.75 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 1,430 (48 bb)
MP: 1,500 (50 bb)
CO (Hero): 1,624 (54 bb)
BU: 1,392 (46 bb)
SB: 1,619 (54 bb)
BB: 1,050 (35 bb)

Pre-Flop: (69) Hero is CO with A♠ T♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 75, BTN calls 75, SB calls 60, 1 fold

Flop: (279) T♦ J♦ 7♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (279) A♥ (3 players)
SB bets 60, Hero calls 60, BTN raises to 180, SB folds, Hero calls 120

River: (699) 2♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 270, Hero?

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well if i think I followed it all correctly, its just a call for me.. 2 pairs against a potential flush or straight? in my view that's considered pot control for a semi weak hand, with potential? what's your or other views? cause I also want to know if Im doing the right thing or not.

i guess to add to this, also depends how much i have left in my stack. in the event that its putting me all in, hmmm. maybe fold. but thats a hard one to fold tho. 🤔 especially if you're already deeply committed.

oh my bad, i see you put it down there. Im calling for sure. 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

Oh, I see how it is. We don't even get a reveal now?

puzzlefish said:

Oh, I see how it is. We don't even get a reveal now?

Click to expand...

I was just waiting to see, if more people wanted to comment

fundiver199 said:

I was just waiting to see, if more people wanted to comment

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nice.

This is about stack behind for me. We have 54bb is it? We have about 7bb in the pot on turn. The river bet is about 4.5bb? (I'm calculating this really roughly). We should still have about 40bb if we call and lose, so normally I'm okay with a flat here.

However, you do say that this guy is a nit. How nitty? This is also not a bluff sizing. It's between like 1/4 and 1/3? Villain wants to get paid here. He may be even tempting us to come overtop. This is cheap enough to call just to see his cards and back engineer him but if we already know that he's a nit we don't need to see. I think it's a fold.

Also, the board itself I don't like because I have PTSD from losing to straight with 2-pair on a broadway board. : P Now throw in the diamonds.

fundiver199 said:

Game is a 32-man On Demand SnG on PokerStars. Second blind level so still very early. SB is a typical fish playing VPIP 39/PFR 14 over 315 hands. The main opponent is going to be BTN, who is a typical nit playing VPIP 15 / PFR 7 with a 3% 3-bet over 1k hands. His postflop aggression factor is a neutral 2. I think, there are a number of interesting decision points in this hand:

Flop: C-bet or check?
Turn: Raise or call the initial small bet from the fish?
River: Call or fold when the nit fire another small bet?

PokerStars, $9.25 + $0.75 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 1,430 (48 bb)
MP: 1,500 (50 bb)
CO (Hero): 1,624 (54 bb)
BU: 1,392 (46 bb)
SB: 1,619 (54 bb)
BB: 1,050 (35 bb)

Pre-Flop: (69) Hero is CO with A♠ T♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 75, BTN calls 75, SB calls 60, 1 fold

Flop: (279) T♦ J♦ 7♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (279) A♥ (3 players)
SB bets 60, Hero calls 60, BTN raises to 180, SB folds, Hero calls 120

River: (699) 2♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 270, Hero?

Click to expand...

CO does not have the nuts on this flop board at a high frequency but the BTN does. As it is multiway our V have a combined range that hits this board very well-Not JJ but 77 and lots of combo draw possibilities KQdd Q9dd 98dd nuts - 87dd also Axdd Kxdd Qxdd Jx combos straight draws you get the idea. In a spot like this we almost always check second pair with back door.

I like the click back+ on turn with a nit behind us. The nit will play their hand face up with a 3 bet and we can fold. Yes sometimes they will have Axdd but that is fine.

As played I fold river vs a nit who attacked 2 players on turn and still bets the front door flush arrival.

I would ask why they-NIT- did not setup the bluff on the flop. Nits check flush draws and they do not often think about stealing pots that have 2 possible straights on them on the turn vs 2 players one of which might be pot controlling AK.
If a nit raised the turn with Ax only why would the nit bet again on river when they can show down their powerful ACE one pair hand? That is what most nits do most often.
The most likely Ax hand 1 pair turn that a nit would raise is AXdd. Ok maybe A7o but nits check back a lot on front door flush completing river cards.

puzzlefish said:

Is it possible he has something like AK or AQ here, that Hero can beat?

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Bingo

fundiver199 said:

Bingo

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So he is not a NIT but a weak TAG

Nice catch.

eetenor said:

So he is not a NIT but a weak TAG

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Not sure what the difference between those two player types would be? The point is, that we know from his stats, he is only 3-betting 3% of the time, so him having AQ in his range after calling us pre should not be a surprice. And then postflop I played my hand so passively checking the flop and just calling the "feeler bet" from the fish on the turn, that he thought, his AQ was the best hand and went for thin value on the river.

I am actually not a huge fan of my just call on the turn, but I think, it was a combination of missing, just how small the fish bet, and worrying a bit to much about someone having KQ. I think, I should have basically made the raise, which the nit ended up making for me. If the nit then puts in a cold 3-bet, or the fish min-bet and then 3-bet, then I probably dont have the best hand, and I can either call and try to fill up or fold depending on the price. But it all ended up working out, and I guess, you can say, I put a bit of a cooler on the nit

fundiver199 said:

Not sure what the difference between those two player types would be? The point is, that we know from his stats, he is only 3-betting 3% of the time, so him having AQ in his range after calling us pre should not be a surprice. And then postflop I played my hand so passively checking the flop and just calling the "feeler bet" from the fish on the turn, that he thought, his AQ was the best hand and went for thin value on the river.

I am actually not a huge fan of my just call on the turn, but I think, it was a combination of missing, just how small the fish bet, and worrying a bit to much about someone having KQ. I think, I should have basically made the raise, which the nit ended up making for me. If the nit then puts in a cold 3-bet, or the fish min-bet and then 3-bet, then I probably dont have the best hand, and I can either call and try to fill up or fold depending on the price. But it all ended up working out, and I guess, you can say, I put a bit of a cooler on the nit

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If you read my post earlier, I pointed out to qualify as a NIT they would never bet that river with that hand. A NIT expects to get trapped by a sneaky flush-that 1 pair on that board loses too often to be a value bet on the river. A NIT will check trips on that river board.
Nits do not attack that turn either -they hate folding their AQ/K hands when reraised and expect players to bet the nuts small into them, so they call hoping to showdown but willing to fold to a big bet on river. It is why we can attack NITS relentlessly on rivers.

Weak TAGS play top of range and then over value their hands -they ignore other players potential cards or the board runout or what their value targets are on the river or if they could be getting trapped.
This hand was a perfect example of WTAG play---"I has ACE ACE good hand" "No one raise me so I have best hand" No thought to the 2 pair combos you could have- or if you were pot controlling or drawing to a non nut flush and were going to call any river bet. I know they had no thought to your 2 pair hands because they did not bet large enough to get folds from any of them.

NITS worry about all of those things! That is why they do not get full value on rivers.

Yes the preflop stats look similar, but when we get to see this play, we now know they are no NIT!

Post flop play tells soo much more about a player than just preflop stats- we want to make sure we know to look for that data and correctly identify it.
When we do- this becomes and easy call vs a WTAG not an easy fold vs a NIT.