$3,30 NL HE MTT: Your toughts?

aorodrigo

aorodrigo

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  • #1
Game
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I think the Villain played very badly. I would never fold this

Hand History 1783979802417
 
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fundiver199

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  • #2
Preflop
KQs is correct to open and call a 3-bet, and AQo is correct to 3-bet. Maybe there is some argument for folding KQs to a BB 3-bet, since most players have very few bluffs from this position, but the GTO line is definitely to call.

Flop
AQo is correct to go for a C-bet, since the preflop 3-bettor usually C-bet more or less range. KQs is correct to just call with a draw, since we often lack fold equity in 3-bet pots, and KQs has position.

Turn
AQo pick up a gutshot and a decent "scare card", so seems like a reasonable situation to fire again. However with only around a pot sized bet left, there is not enough stack depth to make this a 3-street hand, so AQo need to either jam or check here. KQs is correct to call again having now improved to top pair and still with a draw to back it up.

River
With just 1/3 pot sized bet left, and the flopped top pair becoming trips, AQo lack fold equity and need to check with intention to check-fold. KQs is correct to call the jam getting around 4:1, and should have checked back if checked to.
 
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nitesss

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  • #3
I agree that folding looks too tight here. Without a very strong read on the opponent, I think calling is the better option. In bounty tournaments players can make lighter shoves, so I'm usually not folding a strong hand in this spot.
 
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Semprini

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Once Villain sees that flop, he's almost certainly barreling a draw. River busts all draws except 87 but 87 isn't 3-betting you pre. He might have a T or overpair but probably a busted draw. Good call.
 
ExMoroccan

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  • #5
You could have gotten alot more value than you did actually
 
Jillychemung

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  • #6
ExMoroccan said:
You could have gotten alot more value than you did actually
Click to expand...
He doubled up so no more value to have gotten.
 
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fundiver199

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  • #7
Semprini said:
Once Villain sees that flop, he's almost certainly barreling a draw. River busts all draws except 87 but 87 isn't 3-betting you pre. He might have a T or overpair but probably a busted draw. Good call.
Click to expand...
87 flopped a straight, and QJ turned it. The only busted draws from the flop are J8 (very unlikely to 3-bet pre) and clubs, which Hero block holding Qc. Holding Kc does not matter, because its top pair, so KX of clubs does not need to bluff. Besides that there was only a 1/3 pot bet left for the river, so in my opinion it will be very rare, that we are shown a busted draw or any other kind of bluff here.

We are mostly going to be beat but still have to call getting such good odds, because we only need to win 1 in 5 times, and we never quite know, how people play. Once in a while he could also have something like KJs, which we beat, and which he is jamming, because he is out of position and does not want to check and face a bet from us.
 
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aorodrigo

aorodrigo

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  • #8
ExMoroccan said:
You could have gotten alot more value than you did actually
Click to expand...
I got all his chips. How could I get even more value on this?
 
aorodrigo

aorodrigo

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  • #9
fundiver199 said:
Preflop
KQs is correct to open and call a 3-bet, and AQo is correct to 3-bet. Maybe there is some argument for folding KQs to a BB 3-bet, since most players have very few bluffs from this position, but the GTO line is definitely to call.

Flop
AQo is correct to go for a C-bet, since the preflop 3-bettor usually C-bet more or less range. KQs is correct to just call with a draw, since we often lack fold equity in 3-bet pots, and KQs has position.

Turn
AQo pick up a gutshot and a decent "scare card", so seems like a reasonable situation to fire again. However with only around a pot sized bet left, there is not enough stack depth to make this a 3-street hand, so AQo need to either jam or check here. KQs is correct to call again having now improved to top pair and still with a draw to back it up.

River
With just 1/3 pot sized bet left, and the flopped top pair becoming trips, AQo lack fold equity and need to check with intention to check-fold. KQs is correct to call the jam getting around 4:1, and should have checked back if checked to.
Click to expand...
Very deep analysis! Thanks for doing so
 
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