$3.30 NLHE MTT: $HE : $HE : Bubble has just burst. get it in with overpair of 77?

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Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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8 players remain, 9 were paid. Should I be willing to get it in on this flop?


Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 750/1,500 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 22.11 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 9)
BTN: 24.71 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
SB: 0.67 BB (VPIP: 14.58, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 48)
BB: 47.24 BB (VPIP: 55.41, PFR: 36.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 76)
UTG: 9.61 BB (VPIP: 10.34, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
Hero (UTG+1): 30.9 BB
MP: 10.31 BB (VPIP: 18.64, PFR: 14.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 60)
MP+1: 8.43 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 9)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 7:diamond: 7:spade:

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.3 BB, 3 players) 5:diamond: 4:heart: 2:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 4.47 BB, CO raises to 20.01 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 15.54 BB

Turn: (47.32 BB, 2 players) T:heart:

River: (47.32 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond:

[spoil]CO shows 6:spade: 6:club: (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows 7:diamond: 7:spade: (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 82%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)
CO wins 47.32 BB
[/spoil]
 
20bb is meh.
I'd wait for a better spot. Usually, best case you are flipping and there are 4 players with much less chips than you. One is even with less than 1BB. ICM wise its not worth it.
 
uavissar said:
20bb is meh.
I'd wait for a better spot. Usually, best case you are flipping and there are 4 players with much less chips than you. One is even with less than 1BB. ICM wise its not worth it.
Click to expand...

Agreed +1


Villain holding 66 here is the very best case scenario here, there will be a few flush draws in villains range, but also a few sets, a few straights in his range after he jams


I like betting here for protection/value but i dont hate checking here for pot control either. Checking also keeps his range much wider and helps us realize showdown value. I think either option is fine on this flop.


But yeah, after he jams just tank fold.
 
Typically on WPN half the money goes to the top two finishers when this number of players are paid.

iklEr0U

This rewards risk-taking, though I am not sure how to quantify that.

You need 34% equity from a cEV perspective.

If we assume that all of the villain's suited broadway, all suited connectors 65 and above, and all suited Aces survived the pre-flop, and we cap his range to exclude JJ+ and AK, we can get as high as 32%, excluding pure bluffs. Unfortunately those are generous assumptions.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5d4h2h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.97% 30.83% 1.14% { 7d7s }
MP3 68.03% 66.90% 1.14% { TT-22, A3s, 76s, AhQh, AsQs, KhQh, AhJh, AsJs, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, AsTs, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, As9s, Th9h, As8s, 9h8h, As7s, 8h7h, As6s, As5s, 6h5h, As4s, As2s, A3o }


My first instinct is to call.
But I don't think there are enough pure bluffs here and a big enough reward for risk-taking to make it profitable.
 
66 is really the best case scenario here. Villain mostly will have sets and overpairs 66-JJ and will have flush draws as bluffs. You stand far behind from that range, so you should just fold.
 
missjacki said:
8 players remain, 9 were paid. Should I be willing to get it in on this flop?


Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 750/1,500 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 22.11 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BTN: 24.71 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
SB: 0.67 BB (VPIP: 14.58, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 48)
BB: 47.24 BB (VPIP: 55.41, PFR: 36.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 76)
UTG: 9.61 BB (VPIP: 10.34, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)
Hero (UTG+1): 30.9 BB
MP: 10.31 BB (VPIP: 18.64, PFR: 14.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 60)
MP+1: 8.43 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 9)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has 7[emoji815]: 7[emoji812]:

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7.3 BB, 3 players) 5[emoji815]: 4[emoji813] 2[emoji813]
BB checks, Hero bets 4.47 BB, CO raises to 20.01 BB and is all-in, fold, Hero calls 15.54 BB

Turn: (47.32 BB, 2 players) T[emoji813]

River: (47.32 BB, 2 players) 6[emoji815]:

[spoil]CO shows 6[emoji812]: 6[emoji814]: (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 18%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)
Hero shows 7[emoji815]: 7[emoji812]: (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 82%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)
CO wins 47.32 BB
[/spoil]
Click to expand...

Happily getting this in.

The ranges others have posted are wayyyy too tight.

Best hand id fold is A4. Would also get in most Flush draws.
 
Protential said:
Happily getting this in.

The ranges others have posted are wayyyy too tight.

Best hand id fold is A4. Would also get in most Flush draws.
Click to expand...

what range do you put villain on?
 
I'd be pretty happy to get it in. I'd expect 99+ to 3bet or shove pre.

Yes 22 44 and 55 are in the flatting range but the board is pretty draw heavy for a flatting range too. Axh, 67s, 78h, KJh, J10h QJh QTh would all mostly flat pre and shove this flop.

If ICM was a major factor I might think twice, but because its not I'd take the chance and expect to be flipping most of the time.
 
Why is ICM not a factor here? Final table, in the money. The pay jumps should be significant (relatively speaking ofc)
 
You dont suppose in a micro/low stakes tournament, jams from an unknown will generally be weighted towards value?
 
Protential said:
Happily getting this in.

The ranges others have posted are wayyyy too tight.

Best hand id fold is A4. Would also get in most Flush draws.
Click to expand...

AlexTheOwl said:
If we assume that all of the villain's suited broadway, all suited connectors 65 and above, and all suited Aces survived the pre-flop, and we cap his range to exclude JJ+ and AK, we can get as high as 32%, excluding pure bluffs. Unfortunately those are generous assumptions.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5d4h2h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.97% 30.83% 1.14% { 7d7s }
MP3 68.03% 66.90% 1.14% { TT-22, A3s, 76s, AhQh, AsQs, KhQh, AhJh, AsJs, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, AsTs, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, As9s, Th9h, As8s, 9h8h, As7s, 8h7h, As6s, As5s, 6h5h, As4s, As2s, A3o }
Click to expand...

Protential said:
Any straight draw, and flush draw, any combo draw (pair+str8).
Click to expand...


Do you think this range is wayyyy too tight? I think it's the best case scenario (widest range) that the hero could hope for, and that the actual range is probably more narrow.


If so, what other draws and combos draws do you think the cutoff called with pre-flop?


We don't know much about the villain, but this is the first hand they have played out of the last ten, so we should assume they not much looser than the general population.
 
Board: 5d 4h 2h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.855% 50.17% 00.69% 120196 1641.50 { 7d7s }


Hand 1: 49.145% 48.46% 00.69% 116101 1641.50 { TT-22, A6s-A2s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, K6s, Kh5h, K3s, QhJh, QdTd, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Q6s, Q3s, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 96s, 86s+, 76s, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A6o-A2o, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o, 43o }
 
Protential said:
Board: 5d 4h 2h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.855% 50.17% 00.69% 120196 1641.50 { 7d7s }


Hand 1: 49.145% 48.46% 00.69% 116101 1641.50 { TT-22, A6s-A2s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, K6s, Kh5h, K3s, QhJh, QdTd, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Q6s, Q3s, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 96s, 86s+, 76s, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A6o-A2o, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o, 43o }
Click to expand...



So thats not factoring ICM... when ICM is usually biased toward folding when facing a shove...


And factoring for the fact that this is the best possible range out of multiple possible ranges...


I think this is a pretty clear cut fold
 
mbrenneman0 said:
So thats not factoring ICM... when ICM is usually biased toward folding when facing a shove...


And factoring for the fact that this is the best possible range out of multiple possible ranges...


I think this is a pretty clear cut fold
Click to expand...

+1
especially as there are players who are very short.
 
Oh right.. somehow forgot the hero gets two to one on his money.... still though I think with ICM and the tighter possible ranges, I think it's fine for the hero to fold here and wait for a better spot
 
Protential said:
Board: 5d 4h 2h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.855% 50.17% 00.69% 120196 1641.50 { 7d7s }


Hand 1: 49.145% 48.46% 00.69% 116101 1641.50 { TT-22, A6s-A2s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, K6s, Kh5h, K3s, QhJh, QdTd, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Q6s, Q3s, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 96s, 86s+, 76s, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A6o-A2o, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o, 43o }
Click to expand...

I took this range and added in the other hands that would logically need to be in the villain's pre-flop calling range.
For example, if we include Qh7h in the flop range, we need to assume the pre-flop calling range includes all suited Q7.
If we include 96s in the flop range, we need to assume that higher suited two-gappers like T7s,J8s,Q9s,KTs, AJs call pre-flop.
If we assume that, we need to assume suited one-gappers call pre-flop also.
If 75o+ is in the turn range, then higher unsuited one-gappers need to be in the pre-flop range. etc.etc.


I'm coming up with a pre-flop range for the villain, calling a raise from MP in the cutoff, of about 45% of all hands.


That seems unrealistically wide to me.


Here's the range I think has to exist pre-flop in order for the range you suggest to exist when the CO raises the flop:
{TT-22, AJs-A2s, K3s+, Q3s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o, 43o}
 
AlexTheOwl said:
I took this range and added in the other hands that would logically need to be in the villain's pre-flop calling range.
For example, if we include Qh7h in the flop range, we need to assume the pre-flop calling range includes all suited Q7.
If we include 96s in the flop range, we need to assume that higher suited two-gappers like T7s,J8s,Q9s,KTs, AJs call pre-flop.
If we assume that, we need to assume suited one-gappers call pre-flop also.
If 75o+ is in the turn range, then higher unsuited one-gappers need to be in the pre-flop range. etc.etc.


I'm coming up with a pre-flop range for the villain, calling a raise from MP in the cutoff, of about 45% of all hands.


That seems unrealistically wide to me.


Here's the range I think has to exist pre-flop in order for the range you suggest to exist when the CO raises the flop:
{TT-22, AJs-A2s, K3s+, Q3s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 75s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o, 43o}
Click to expand...

I completely missed that villain was in the Cutoff. Entire time I thought they were in the big blind.
I still think its a call, but its marginal and much closer than what I had been stating.
 
Protential said:
I completely missed that villain was in the Cutoff. Entire time I thought they were in the big blind.
I still think its a call, but its marginal and much closer than what I had been stating.
Click to expand...

Makes sense, thanks!
 
I am guessing that since a player has less than 1bb, and 3 others are also short with 10.3bb or less this should be a fold. I already feel like you are at best hoping to flip against a big drawing hand much less ICM considerations. He has a couple over pairs and possible sets in his range. Maybe Axs that has hit the flop here for a nut flush draw? Either way I know the SB is hoping you call....[emoji16].
 
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