One of the spots I hate most. I think an argument can be made for flatting, 4-betting looking to get it in, or even folding.
Calling is probably the best option, if you are up against QQ+ you can flop a set and probably take that player out. If the flop comes unfavorable and you believe you are up against a big ace, you can fold and still have 45 BB. The biggest problem with this option is that you will be in an even worst spot if you still have an overpair post flop and he plays aggressive, if you’re up against a bigger pair or a set you may have to make a tough call or fold.
I think the 4bet or fold will be better decisions in spots where you are more likely to know your opponents tendencies.
Also, what was the result of this hand?
Calling is probably the best option, if you are up against QQ+ you can flop a set and probably take that player out. If the flop comes unfavorable and you believe you are up against a big ace, you can fold and still have 45 BB. The biggest problem with this option is that you will be in an even worst spot if you still have an overpair post flop and he plays aggressive, if you’re up against a bigger pair or a set you may have to make a tough call or fold.
I think the 4bet or fold will be better decisions in spots where you are more likely to know your opponents tendencies.
Also, what was the result of this hand?
Thanks for the feedback guys.
One thing for sure it is a tough spot. The maths can go either way but I don't think he's on tilt and after he recently lost a fair bit of his stack I think his 3bet range is on the tighter side here. Not sure if he woul normally choose this spot to bluff.
I punched some numbers into Icmizer with hero opening 7%(99+,ATs+,AJo+) and villain raising 5%(TT+,AQ+,A5s) and its says to push with TT+AK with no ICM considerations
Villain raising 6%(88+,AQ,A5s) hero should push with (TT+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs)
He pocket Aces btw
One thing for sure it is a tough spot. The maths can go either way but I don't think he's on tilt and after he recently lost a fair bit of his stack I think his 3bet range is on the tighter side here. Not sure if he woul normally choose this spot to bluff.
I punched some numbers into Icmizer with hero opening 7%(99+,ATs+,AJo+) and villain raising 5%(TT+,AQ+,A5s) and its says to push with TT+AK with no ICM considerations
Villain raising 6%(88+,AQ,A5s) hero should push with (TT+,AJs+,AQo+,KQs)
He pocket Aces btw
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The other guy does not have enough chips for you to call and set mine so my thought is this is a push or fold situation. Also if you call and there are only under-cards to you pair you will be in a horrid situation. You said he was active and not crazy and based on his bet size would he really fold to your shove here? Probably not. To be honest what can he have 3 bet you with? AK to AQ and TT+, you are most likely in a race or in deep trouble as most players wont push TT here. I would have hated to do this but I would have folded this hand.
Madsaac said:
I have had some other thoughts about this situation.
If he is a 3-bet nit (only 3-betting JJ+ and AK) you have only 36% equity against this range. You only need around 26% percent to make the call and you will play the hand in position so I would call and proceed cautiously.
If he is a good reg, and at the stakes of this tournament he very well could be, he could be three betting you with smaller pocket pairs and weaker Aces.
My only caveat to this is that you are raising UTG so your range should be very strong, making him less likely to 3-bet light vs you. Plus he only has 30BB so he shouldn't be 3-bet / folding much.
really tough spot!
unless you have a Soul read on him, folding to a 6bb 3bet is not an Option.
I think he has some Hands in his range to 4bet fold here. if he shoves to our 4bet, we get the odds to call, but we are most likely behind or playing for a flip.
stacks are too Deep to shove into his 32bb stack with JJ
so I think calling is fine. but chances are 52% to see an overcard and if he shoves to a K high flop we have another tough decision to make….
unless you have a Soul read on him, folding to a 6bb 3bet is not an Option.
I think he has some Hands in his range to 4bet fold here. if he shoves to our 4bet, we get the odds to call, but we are most likely behind or playing for a flip.
stacks are too Deep to shove into his 32bb stack with JJ
so I think calling is fine. but chances are 52% to see an overcard and if he shoves to a K high flop we have another tough decision to make….